'Palestinian Statehood, But Vote for Us First' — Can Britain's Conservatives Secure Muslim Votes Amid Historic Challenge?

Intense competition for the Muslim Vote is underway between the two major parties, the Conservatives and Labour, in Britain following the dissolution of Parliament on May 30, 2024, and the early legislative elections scheduled for July 4, 2024, instead of the end of the year.

The Labour Party aims to capitalize on public discontent with the Conservative Party, which has held the prime minister's office five times since 2016, causing a series of scandals and economic problems, and recently suffering losses in local elections.

Meanwhile, the Conservative Party is making moves to win back the trust of Muslims who were angered by Labour Party leader Keir Starmer’s support for the Israeli aggression on Gaza and have threatened not to vote for him.

Vote Attraction 

Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Angela Rayner made an unusual appearance with the Muslim community, urging them to vote for her party in the upcoming elections after reports indicated that Labour had “significantly lost the trust of Muslims” due to its stance on the Gaza aggression.

Rayner promised Muslims during her visit to an Islamic center that her party would recognize the state of Palestine if they won the July 2024 elections, according to The Telegraph on May 28, 2024.

This move by the Conservative Party, accused by British Muslims of fostering Islamophobia and supporting “Israel,” coincides with the Muslim Vote playing a crucial role in Labour's victories and the Conservatives' losses in the local elections.

With Conservative Party Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s position at risk, the results of the local elections held on May 4, 2024, in 11 municipalities showed Labour winning 8 municipalities and 185 seats.

The Conservatives lost 468 seats and at least 8 municipal councils, deepening their crisis as the parliamentary elections approach.

In the previous parliamentary elections (2019), British Muslims voted punitively against the ruling Conservative Party due to its Islamophobic policies and its members' ties to the Israeli Occupation, choosing Labour and independent candidates instead.

The influence of a pressure group called Muslim Vote or Voice of Muslims in the electoral campaigns has impressed the two major competing parties (Conservatives and Labour) for its role in directing the votes of UK Muslims at the ballot box.

Labour’s rise in the by-elections and then the local elections held in April and May 2024 came at the expense of the Conservatives, thanks to the Muslim Vote, pushing the Conservatives to court them and try to attract their votes by claiming to support the Palestinian cause.

The Voices of Muslims group in Britain was modelled after Operation Black Vote in America, aiming to increase voter turnout among British Muslims while directing them to elect those who care about Muslim interests.

Muslim Vote group is supported by the Muslim Association of Britain, the Muslim Council of Scotland, the Muslim Council of Wales, the Muslim Engagement and Development organization, and other Islamic civil society organizations.

Describing itself on its website, the Muslim Vote group states they are pro-democracy and anti-genocide, and that Muslims and anyone who stands for justice agree that the current political class does not represent Muslims.

The group claims to have thousands of volunteers ready to support local independent political campaigns in constituencies with a significant number of Muslim voters and MPs.

They plan to punish MPs who refused to ask for a ceasefire in Gaza by refusing to vote for them.

On their website, they declare their intention to empower Britons to support a pro-Palestine and pro-peace candidate in the elections, and they will not support any MP who voted against the ceasefire in Gaza in the House of Commons.

British reports indicate that the Conservative Party is trying to leverage the Gaza issue, suggesting they might recognize a Palestinian state if they win the elections again, to garner support from the large number of Muslims angered by Labour’s stance.

Both parties fear losing the votes of Muslims and those opposed to the Israeli aggression on Gaza in the upcoming elections, potentially losing more seats to independents who support the rights of British Muslims and Palestinians for an independent state.

Labour's Deputy Leader, Angela Rayner, during her campaign meeting with the Muslim community, emphasized that her party will support a Palestinian state if they win the July 2024 elections, highlighting the Conservatives' efforts to gain Muslim support.

Rayner even stated that if her resignation from the government and parliament would stop the Israeli aggression on Gaza, she would do it.

Rayner made several statements to appease Muslims and Britons angered by their country’s support for the Israeli genocide in Gaza, demonstrating this by boycotting the elections or choosing independents.

During her meeting with the Muslim community, Rayner affirmed that Labour also supports the International Criminal Court, which seeks to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his War Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes in Gaza.

She promised them if Labour comes to power, they will recognize the State of Palestine, but unfortunately, there is nothing to recognize at the moment, as it has been destroyed, according to her.

“We must rebuild Palestine; we must rebuild Gaza. This requires more than just recognizing it.”

However, Muslims indicated that this will not deceive them, calling it electoral gimmicks, pointing to the statements of Prime Minister Sunak from the Conservative Party, which are strongly anti-Muslim and supportive of the Israeli Occupation.

Sunak has made hostile statements against British Muslims, accusing British Islamic organizations of "promoting extremism," and pledged to eliminate them.

The Conservative Party faces numerous accusations of being "unfriendly" to Muslims in Britain, with allegations of covering up growing Islamophobia within its ranks.

On July 24, 2023, The Guardian revealed that the Conservative Party had delayed implementing plans to address Islamophobia against Muslims and other forms of discriminatory practices within the party.

The review within the party showed that there were 212 complaints related to 137 incidents in the three months preceding June 2023.

An article by Peter Oborne on Middle East Eye on July 25, 2023, commented on the Conservative Party's failure to tackle the problem of Islamophobia, saying that the party has become a group of bigots.

He emphasized that it is a party that despises the rule of law, flirts with the far-right, and typically disregards minorities, especially Muslims who are deeply opposed to them and has become a party of bigots.

Additionally, Sunak and his Conservative Party support “Israel” with weapons and equipment and have employed the British military to serve its interests, including spy planes and warplanes, casting doubt on promises to recognize a Palestinian state.

A report by the British investigative site Declassified UK on May 29, 2024, revealed that the British army had sent 60 large cargo planes capable of carrying weapons and more than 100 soldiers to “Israel” since the start of the Gaza genocide on October 27, 2023.

When asked by the Ministry of Defense about this, they responded that the purpose of the flights is to transport ministers and senior officials for diplomatic communications with “Israel.”

Labour Enters the Competition

In the competition for Muslim votes, Labour has entered the fray to compete with the Conservatives, beginning to issue statements aimed at mitigating the pro-Israeli Occupation stance of party leader Keir Starmer, which has angered Muslims and various British factions.

However, Labour is wary of the Muslim Vote group, supported by the Muslim Association of Britain, the Muslim Council of Scotland, the Muslim Council of Wales, the Muslim Engagement and Development organization, and other Islamic civil society organizations.

This group has threatened not to vote for Labour due to its support for the Israeli genocide in Gaza.

Evidence from the local elections held in April 2024 showed that Muslim voters have begun to abandon Labour due to its stance on supporting Israeli aggression.

Labour leader Starmer showed his support for Gaza’s genocide when asked by British channel LBC on October 11, 2023, whether he believed "Israel” is right to cut off water and electricity to Gaza.

He replied, "I think that Israel does have that right," which sparked severe criticism against him.”

Despite partially retracting his stance later, Keir Starmer once again angered many of his MPs, supporters, and Muslim communities by refusing to back calls for halting the aggression on Gaza.

These statements were reflected in a poll published by the Muslim Census Organization on October 17, 2023, showing a 66% decline in Muslim support for the Labour Party, potentially leading to a loss of 1.5 million voters for the party.

The Standard newspaper which published the poll on October 26, 2023, reported that Labour faces a significant drop in Muslim voters at the polls due to Starmer's stance on Gaza.

A senior Labour MP described Muslims as geographically significant since many live in key targeted constituencies in both the South and the Northwest of the country.

When Spain, Norway, and Ireland recognized Palestine, Starmer’s office responded by stressing that his primary goal remains to achieve a negotiated settlement between Israeli Occupation and the Palestinians, without mentioning any recognition of a Palestinian state.

Twenty-three Muslim members resigned from Labour's advisory board over Starmer’s position, and 250 Muslim members signed a letter urging the party to support a "ceasefire in Gaza," according to The Standard.

In 2014, under Edward Miliband's leadership, Labour's policy was immediate recognition of the Palestinian state, a stance rejected by Starmer.

Starmer informed Jewish leaders in January 2023 that recognizing Palestine would not be immediate (if the party won the elections), but part of a broader peace process.

Thus, writer Jason Cowley noted in an article published by Sunday Times on February 4, 2024, that Starmer has a Palestinian problem, and it will worsen as the general election approaches.

He hinted that this is one of the reasons for Labour's challenge in regaining the Muslim and anti-Israeli aggression vote.

Cowley explained that the Labour leader’s unwavering support for the Israeli war in Gaza, and his ongoing hesitation to call for a ceasefire, has divided MPs, revived the hard left, and angered Muslim voters who traditionally support Labour.

The leadership does not believe that the absence or defection of Muslims in the elections will impact Labour’s chances, although polls have shown the opposite if Muslims fail to support Labour in the July 2024 elections.

More Setbacks

Before Sunak dissolved parliament on May 30, 2024, in preparation for the general elections on July 4, 2024, he faced a major setback.

Seventy-seven MPs from his party have decided to jump ship, announcing that they will not run in the next elections. This puts Sunak in a difficult position ahead of the upcoming elections, with predictions indicating that the party is heading for its worst defeat in history.

About 129 MPs announced they would not seek re-election, including 77 Conservatives, representing an unprecedented departure of ruling party parliamentarians who realize their slim chances of winning seats in the 650-member parliament.

After 14 years in opposition, Labour now has a chance to regain power and the Prime Minister's office under the leadership of Keir Starmer, according to polls.

Polls indicate that Labour averages 45% of voting intentions, compared to 23% for the Conservatives, suggesting a significant victory for Labour.

The British parliamentary elections were initially scheduled for October or November 2024, but Sunak expedited them to July 2024, raising questions about his reasoning.

Analysts suggest that alongside the Conservative Party's attempt to exploit the crisis between various British factions, including UK Muslims, and the Labour Party following its leader's blatant support for “Israel” during the Gaza aggression, there are other reasons at play.

In a May 22, 2024, analysis, Politico identified these reasons, noting that the decision to move up the elections was driven by signs of economic improvement and the government's success in passing the migrant deportation plan to Rwanda.

It pointed out that these positive factors, from Sunak and his party's perspective, prompted him to call early elections to capitalize on this improvement in attracting voters before the situation could deteriorate.

Politico also highlighted that Sunak's strategy for early elections might still be fraught with risks, as the Conservative Party lags 20 points behind the opposition Labour Party in polls.