Omer Korkmaz: Erdogan-Trump Ties Strong, No Early Elections Ahead (Exclusive)

The Turkish political thinker and former advisor to the Prime Ministry, Omer Korkmaz, predicted an improvement in Turkish-American relations under President-elect Donald Trump in certain areas, while remaining strained in others, particularly regarding the situation in Syria.

In an interview with Al-Estiklal, Korkmaz said the head of the Syrian regime, Bashar al-Assad, has no desire to improve relations with Turkiye, at least not during President Erdogan's term. However, he warned that this estrangement will not serve Assad's interests in the near future.

Regarding the Turkish opposition's calls for early elections, Korkmaz dismissed the possibility, arguing that the opposition parties are not prepared for such elections themselves.

“I do not foresee early elections for legal, regional, and international reasons.”

Korkmaz, a Turkish analyst and political thinker, served as an advisor in the government of former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in 2016. He is currently active in various international academic and scientific organizations and is fluent in Turkish, Arabic, and English.

Given Trump's close relationship with Erdogan, do you believe the Turkish president could persuade him to take action to end the genocide in Gaza and Lebanon?

As for U.S. foreign policy, in reality, it doesn't differ much from Trump to Biden; both serve Zionism, as we saw in recent years. In fact, even in the last election, the main issue during the campaign between the candidates was who would serve the Zionist state more than the other.

But here is a very important point that we must understand as Arabs and Muslims: we should not mix different issues, and we should not combine different files into one issue.

Turkiye continues to engage with the United States, finding common ground on some issues, while differences remain on others.

Some parties often want us to take a single stance on all issues, but political relations do not work that way. We must understand that managing a state is different from managing groups and individuals. If we “fall out” with someone, we might completely cut ties, but a state does not work that way.

Turkiye is a major regional power and plays an important role in international peace. However, it is not anyone’s right to expect us to resolve all crises related to the Palestinian cause just because Erdogan has a good relationship with Trump.

But the outgoing U.S. president, Joe Biden, led the worst phase in Turkish-American relations. He openly opposed Erdogan, even before coming into power, and after becoming president, he explicitly declared his intent to remove Erdogan from office. Despite various efforts, he failed because Erdogan's Turkiye proved stronger than Biden and his allies had anticipated.

Turkiye is not a banana republic. It has law, people, an army, and a homeland. Therefore, Biden couldn’t achieve his aspirations.

Yes, Trump is a bold man and may intervene in many matters, but let’s not forget that he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and ordered the U.S. embassy to move from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, thus giving more legitimacy to the Zionists. Still, we’ll see what unfolds in the coming days with Trump.

How do you see the future of Turkish-American relations with Trump’s return and the death of the Gulen leader?

Turkish-American relations will evolve in a way that will be positive in some files and remain unresolved in others. The U.S. openly sends weapons to the PKK in Syria, and Turkiye will not accept this; it will not turn a blind eye to this. So, this issue will remain unresolved, but Trump’s return may offer a significant opportunity to make it up. 

I expect that, in the long term, after the U.S. realizes that the PKK has no hope, it will stop supporting it.

Thus, Turkiye will find relief, and perhaps the U.S. will too. The U.S. will eventually withdraw from the region, just as it withdrew from Afghanistan.This is our region, our country. It's unacceptable for outsiders from other continents to come here and try to rule our land. That will never happen.

On the other hand, Fethullah Gulen, who was responsible for the failed coup attempt in 2016, died along with Biden politically. The death of Gulen and Biden’s political downfall happened simultaneously, so relations will undoubtedly improve much in the future.

Turkish-Arab Relations

How do you see the future of Turkish-Arab relations, especially with the Gulf nations and the Maghreb, in light of the recent thaw with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE?

Turkiye is both an Eastern European and Asian country, and as such, it has a cultural, religious, and civilizational connection with all Arab regimes, especially the Gulf countries and North Africa, including Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria.

Of course, the more these bilateral relations develop in the economic, cultural, and historical fields, the greater the mutual benefit. We all know that the strength of economic ties depends on good relations between neighboring countries that are culturally and civilizationally close through bilateral trade.

Turkiye has extensive trade with Germany and other European countries, so why shouldn't there be strong ties with Egypt, Libya, the Gulf countries, and North African nations like Morocco, Mauritania, and Algeria?

Yes, we understand that there are some contentious issues between Morocco and Algeria, but Turkiye does not intervene negatively in these internal disputes in the region.

Turkiye is prepared to mediate in resolving crises or disputes between nations, aiming to foster unity and reconciliation. However, it firmly avoids interfering in the internal affairs of other countries.

How would you describe the current state of Turkish-Syrian relations, especially in light of efforts to reconcile with Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the ongoing return of Syrians to their homeland?

We’re well aware of the internal challenges Syria faces, stemming from what can be called a civil war. The Syrian regime is unable to fully control its borders or airspace.

So Syria truly needs strong neighbors like Turkiye and other countries. Yes, Russia’s presence helps Bashar politically, but internal and regional crises do not end.

Syria must return to the Arab fold in a positive way, but on the condition that it does so without sacrificing the Syrian people who are seeking freedom and justice.

If the political system in Damascus had moved as the Moroccan system did during the Arab Spring, it would have been safer and better for it to ‘navigate’ this wave positively.

There would have been a democratic, peaceful atmosphere in Syria today, but the regime chose another path.

This situation opened the door for multi-party international intervention, causing even more problems, eventually bringing Syria to a deadlock. Therefore, Turkiye now believes that it is essential for relations with Syria to return to normal.

As for the return of Syrians, it must be voluntary, not forced. The majority of Syrians in Turkiye either still have ongoing political issues or no longer have homes or cities to return to.

I believe most of them, if pressured, would prefer to go to another country rather than Syria, as has happened in some cases. Therefore, Turkiye is fully aware that forcing Syrians to return to their country would be neither appropriate nor right.

But the Syrian-Turkish relations must be better than they are now, though it seems that Bashar’s regime does not want this relationship to improve, at least not during Erdogan’s term.

However, this distance will not be in Bashar al-Assad’s interest, at least not now or in the near future. I foresee significant changes in the long term because the current situation cannot continue. The Syrian people, whether inside or outside Syria, want a quick resolution to their political and economic crisis.

What does the future hold for Arab communities of various nationalities in Turkiye, especially in light of Erdogan's party losing ground in the recent municipal elections?

As for the Arab community, they are our esteemed guests, and some of them have even acquired Turkish citizenship and become citizens. Therefore, they should have no problem, and they must feel like Turkish citizens with the same rights and duties. They should not exaggerate political issues that have nothing to do with them.

For those guests who have not yet acquired citizenship or are still waiting and have legal residence, they should have no problems as long as they comply with the requirements of their status.

This means they should not delay in renewing their residence permits and should not break the law in commercial matters, taxes, and the like. I believe Turkiye welcomes them and does not force anyone to leave the country.

If they wish to leave, or if Turkiye deems it necessary for some to leave due to legal reasons, it will not force them out but will allow them to leave for the country of their choice.

This has happened several times, and Turkiye has not forcibly deported them to their home country for fear that they may face injustice or mistreatment, as we have seen from the Turkish state in recent years.

Ekrem Imamoglu and Municipalities

How do you respond to the criticisms of President Erdogan's government made by Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu during his participation in the World Urban Forum in Cairo?

Turkish officials, whether they are mayors, parliamentarians, or party leaders, especially when they travel abroad, should not bring domestic Turkish political issues into such foreign visits. They represent Turkiye abroad, and those participating in such conferences should not discuss local politics.

I am surprised that Ekrem Imamoglu allowed himself to raise Turkish domestic issues in Cairo. I strongly criticize him for betraying his country. While he has every democratic right to voice his concerns about the government, the system, or the president, it’s unacceptable to raise these issues in a foreign country. 

No Turkish citizen should be airing our internal problems abroad. The world has enough of its own challenges, and nothing positive comes from what the Mayor of Istanbul said. In fact, it only risks damaging Turkiye's reputation.

But we want to remind him that Turkiye is far bigger than him and what he said.

How do you respond to the dismissal of two mayors from the CHP and the Good Party — one linked to alleged PKK ties, and the other removed over a sexual assault scandal?

Yes, there have been dismissals of some mayors for legal reasons. Turkiye is a country of law. Just because someone is elected mayor does not give them diplomatic or legal immunity. If they make a legal mistake, they should face the consequences, just like anyone else.

However, some have criticized this, and I agree with them. The real question is: why were these individuals even allowed to run for mayor in the first place? The answer I got was that these individuals manipulated the candidacy process. They initially nominated someone who met the legal requirements and, at the last minute, replaced them with the current candidate. They were dismissed for manipulating the nomination process — if they had applied correctly, they wouldn't have been accepted in the first place.

Yet, there are still many mayors in office, even those from the same party or from the left-wing Greens Party. This is perhaps the first time we have seen a mayor from the CHP dismissed, even though he ideologically follows the PKK. The alliance between the two parties allowed him to run on their list.

How do you interpret the tragic killing of a mayor from the New Welfare Party by a relative? Does this point to a deeper corruption crisis or an unemployment issue?

Certainly, Turkish local politics, especially at the municipal level, involves various issues. For example, a candidate rejected by their party may choose to run for another party. Many mayors who were previously in office and wanted to run again were rejected because they had already served their term limits, as was the case with the AKP after a candidate had served three consecutive terms. The party then seeks younger faces and may endorse candidates from smaller parties.

Smaller parties like the New Welfare Party take advantage of these well-known figures and use them to bolster their lists, as they are already recognized in the community.

This, of course, leads to certain internal conflicts, particularly in eastern Turkiye, within families, parties, and even within neighborhoods. What happened in this case is purely a local issue and is not necessarily related to corruption or ideology.

Is there any danger from the recent opposition protests against the imprisonment and trial of Esenyurt Mayor Ahmet Ozer in Istanbul?

Turkiye is a country governed by law and a democratic republic, but this does not mean that there should be any security breakdown, as the security forces have control over the situation in Turkiye.

Therefore, the Turkish Minister of the Interior or security officials will not allow people to overstep their boundaries and create security issues, whether in Istanbul or elsewhere.

Others have tried this before, and the Turkish people remember well what happened in Taksim, specifically in Gezi Park, where those riots spread across Turkiye. They aimed to overthrow the Erdogan government over trivial issues, but they failed at that time.

This time, there are also some attempts at what is called civil disobedience. The Ministry of Interior allowed them to protest, but it did not permit them to disrupt social and civil life in Esenyurt.

They will be allowed to protest only to the extent necessary to express their demands, but no further.

How are the ten cities that were devastated by the earthquake faring, now that it's been over 20 months?

Regarding the cities devastated by the earthquake, there have been tremendous efforts to rebuild them even better than before. It has been reported that significant progress has been made, with many houses built by the government and handed over to their owners. However, the disaster was so severe that some issues are still pending.

One important point that some readers may not be aware of is that the government is covering the cost of building the homes, as well as paying rent for those who lost their homes in the earthquake.

This means that the new homes are being delivered to their rightful owners. There are also some legal disputes between homeowners that remain unresolved. Overall, there has been substantial progress on the ground in these cities.

The disaster was immense, and the work being done is monumental, with efforts continuing at full speed. It will likely take more time to reach and support all those affected in the ten provinces.

Bahceli and the TUSAS Attack

What’s your take on Nationalist Movement Party leader Devlet Bahceli's call for imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan to address parliament and declare the “end of terrorism”?

First of all, Bahceli did not call on Abdullah Ocalan to give a speech in parliament unconditionally. Everyone wants the issue of this terrorist organization in Turkiye to be resolved.

Turkiye has made significant progress in fighting terrorism, both domestically and abroad.

It seems that Turkiye has a bigger goal in mind beyond addressing this terrorist organization. There’s a sense that a more intense and dangerous phase is approaching—one that could pose an even greater threat to Turkiye’s national security than these terrorist groups. 

That’s why Turkiye aims to resolve this issue completely and at its core, to fully prepare for what lies ahead.

Bahceli’s initiative seems to have been developed in cooperation with Erdogan—at least, that’s what I believe—but with conditions: terrorism must end and be completely wiped out, and there must be a declaration of that, along with a call for the organization to lay down its arms.

However, I believe that terrorism won’t end that easily because the field leaders of the terrorist organization will not acknowledge or accept Abdullah Ocalan's stance.

This terrorist organization will not end peacefully in Turkiye because it is supported by international and regional intelligence agencies.

As a result, Abdullah Ocalan no longer has much authority over the field leaders of the organization, based on what we hear from some of the militants in the mountains or abroad.

In fact, the PKK’s response to this call was an attack on the Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS) center in Ankara, which confirms that they are not interested in peace in this country.

Constitutional Change

What is your perspective on the proposed amendments to the current constitution, which are backed by Erdogan?

Turkiye's current constitution dates back to 1960 and was amended in 1980. Over the years, various articles have been modified, often through agreements between the opposition and the government at different times. 

However, with new political developments, Erdogan’s government—or the president himself—now seeks to introduce additional reforms.
There is no consensus about changing the first four articles of the constitution. Some parties, like the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party, support the change, while the Republican People’s Party (CHP) opposes that. Yes, the constitution will be reformed, but it won’t be a complete overhaul, because that’s the nature of politics.

What about the opposition’s attempts to call for early presidential elections?

It’s typical for the opposition to demand early elections, but what is their problem? Why do they want to rush the elections, as if they are certain they will win? First of all, it’s not guaranteed they will win. Second, why does the law specify that elections should be held every five years? 

Holding elections more frequently is financially and economically costly, and this demand goes against the law because we are a country governed by the rule of law. 

As President Erdogan has stated, elections will be held at the scheduled time. Therefore, the opposition should prepare for the upcoming elections with strong candidates, full readiness, and complete alliances, instead of calling for early elections.

Unfortunately, I don’t think the opposition parties are even ready for the early elections they are calling for. I do not foresee early elections for legal, regional, and international reasons.