Not Just a Military Operation: How al-Aqsa Flood Achieves What the Oslo Authority Could Not

Despite being attacked and labeled as "terrorist," Operation al-Aqsa Flood forced the world to revive discussions about the future of the Palestinian issue, which many parties have tried to dissolve in recent years.

Alongside its military breakthrough, the operation executed by Hamas in the Gaza envelope settlements on October 7, 2023, began to show indirect political results.

Voting and Recognition

The latest of these results was the vote by the United Nations General Assembly in its 10th extraordinary session on May 10, 2024, in favor of a draft resolution supporting Palestine's request for full membership in the UN.

The resolution recommends that the Security Council reconsider the request, and outlines ways to implement additional rights and privileges related to Palestine's participation in the UN.

The resolution received 143 votes in favor, 9 against, and 25 abstentions, according to the UN's website. However, it remains symbolic due to the U.S. veto in the Security Council.

The resolution affirmed the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination, including the right to establish an independent State of Palestine.

It emphasized that the State of Palestine is eligible for UN membership according to Article 4 of the Charter and should be admitted to the UN.

Accordingly, the resolution recommended that the Security Council reconsider this issue positively.

Palestine has the status of a non-member observer state at the UN, which it obtained after a General Assembly decision adopted by a large majority on November 29, 2012.

The resolution called on the international community to make renewed and coordinated efforts aimed at achieving without delay an end to the Israeli occupation that began in 1967.

It also called for a just, lasting, and peaceful resolution of the Palestinian issue and the Israeli occupation, in accordance with international law and relevant United Nations resolutions. The Secretary-General was asked to take the necessary measures to implement this resolution.

The General Assembly vote took place while “Israel” continues its devastating aggression on Gaza since October 7, following Operation al-Aqsa Flood.

Among the consequences of the operation is the intention of five European Union member states, including Ireland and Spain, to recognize the State of Palestine on May 21, 2024, as reported by international media.

RTE Ireland's National Television and Radio Broadcaster reported on May 8 that contacts have intensified between Ireland, Spain, Slovenia, and Malta regarding the recognition of the State of Palestine.

The latter is currently recognized by eight EU members: Bulgaria, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Cyprus, and Sweden.

Since 1988, 139 out of 193 UN member states have recognized the State of Palestine within the 1967 borders, which include the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Results of Operation al-Aqsa Flood

Since the launch of the Hamas operation, many parties have blamed the political stagnation regarding the Palestinian issue and the lack of a “conflict resolution.” European countries believe that tension will not end without the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Many concluded that military resistance compels global recognition of Palestinian rights, unlike begging “Israel” through negotiations.

Political analyst Yasser al-Zaatreh said, “The General Assembly vote is part of the echoes of the Gaza war, not the result of Mahmoud Abbas's begging and his authority’s diplomatic apparatus, which spends a large percentage of the people's money without any notable benefit.”

“Operation al-Aqsa Flood made Palestine the world's focus, but the authority's youth and their partisan tribe continue to demonize it in all their platforms and shops without stopping,” al-Zaatreh added. 

In a remark indicating one of the outcomes of the operation, the Israeli UN ambassador stated that voting today (before final voting) to grant Palestine full membership means voting for the future president of the State of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar.

During his speech, he tore up the UN Charter after the General Assembly voted in favor of the resolution to grant Palestine full membership.

In a report published by al-Zaytouna Center for Studies and Consultations in Beirut in 2020, it was noted that the analysis of UN voting patterns over the past thirty years indicates that international support for Palestinians increases during periods of confrontation and uprisings more than during calm periods.

The center reiterated this point in a study released on February 27, 2024, stating that the percentage of support for pro-Palestinian resolutions at the UN has significantly increased following Operation al-Aqsa Flood.

The study confirmed that armed resistance boosts international public support for the Palestinian stance, while this support wanes during peaceful settlement processes.

Since the Oslo Peace Accords of 1993, neither the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) nor the Palestinian Authority, established the following year, have succeeded in securing Palestinian rights from “Israel” through negotiations.

After years of stagnation, Israeli-Palestinian peace talks have been stalled since April 2014 due to various reasons, including Israeli Occupation’s refusal to release long-term detainees and halt settlement activities.

The path of negotiations and peace with “Israel” is rejected by Palestinian resistance, which asserts that rights can only be achieved through armed struggle, as demonstrated by Operation al-Aqsa Flood.

Reviving the Cause 

Operation al-Aqsa Flood has revitalized the Palestinian cause, raising awareness of Palestinian rights in the U.S. and Europe, as evidenced by student movements in universities.

Many believe the operation disrupted the normalization process with “Israel” and embarrassed Arab countries that normalized relations through the Abraham Accords, starting in 2020, including the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan.

The operation surpassed all previous attempts to resolve the Palestinian issue, culminating in what is known as the "Deal of the Century," championed by former U.S. President Donald Trump.

Following the operation, “Israel” found itself more politically isolated than ever before due to its continued perpetration of massacres against civilians and its refusal to cease fire, undermining its image before the global public opinion.

Regarding the future post-aggression, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace stated that if Hamas manages to maintain the popularity it gained by attacking “Israel” on October 7, and if Palestinians are willing to look beyond the destruction in Gaza, it may be fair to say that the movement will have much and the greatest role in shaping the political path of Palestinian society.

A study published on January 25, 2024, added that following October 7, the U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has revived the idea of a two-state solution, despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's refusal to endorse such an outcome.

With these outcomes, analysts conclude that October 7 may have confirmed to many Palestinians that armed resistance can yield results, but it acknowledges that the cost was high, referring to the number of casualties and the scale of destruction.

It suggests that Hamas may have gained greater influence within the Palestinian ranks and could succeed in securing a place within the PLO, becoming a key player in negotiations, hence having more capacity to shape its progress.

It does not rule out that one of the post-aggression outcomes could result in Hamas imposing a new balance of power with “Israel,” which may make future negotiations more balanced, indicating a forcing of the occupier into a new reality it had previously rejected in its dealings with the Palestinian Authority.