Multiple Destinations; A New Exodus Hits Lebanon and Threatens the Future of the State and Society

A few months ago, Lebanon has been facing a new wave of mass emigration with an unknown horizon, with a large number of Lebanese entering it, especially the youth and the productive competencies, which was described by the Crisis Observatory at the American University of Beirut as “the most dangerous episode of the difficult phase that Lebanon is witnessing.”

The reasons for the frightening emigration this time are not only limited to the severe economic crisis and the unstable political and institutional situation; Rather, behind part of it is the feeling of despair that the Lebanese have reached from the threats surrounding the country's future, according to the observatory.

It also comes as an expected result of the worst economic deterioration in Lebanon's contemporary history, this threatens to lose national competencies, increase the rate of aging of society, and multiply the burdens of the state.

 

‘Third Exodus’

In a recent report, the Crisis Observatory at the American University of Beirut said: “Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese are leaving in a phenomenon that has come to be called the (Third Exodus), which portends a catastrophe on the level of Lebanese society, especially since “77% of the Lebanese youth seek to emigrate.”

The economic collapse in Lebanon over the past few years had repercussions on the Lebanese in their daily struggle with the crises of shortages of medicines, fuel and living materials, in addition to the price inflation that accompanied the devaluation of the local currency by about 90%, according to the report of the observatory.

In its report, the observatory indicated that “there are people from the productive competencies who have left Lebanon during the past months, among them are a large number of university professors (190 from the American University only), doctors, engineers, lawyers, journalists and businessmen.”

The observatory's report pointed out that “those who have other nationalities in addition to their Lebanese nationality are the most inclined to emigrate from Lebanon, who are facilitated by embassies to grant visas to them.”

“Coincidentally, most of them belong to Christian denominations, this threatens the future of the Lebanese entity, because it will contribute to increasing the demographic imbalance in the sectarian power-sharing map in Lebanon,” it added.

The observatory’s report also indicated that “the failure of the Lebanese politicians in the last stage has increased the level of despair among the youth and competencies, and it gave them negative signals about the country’s future and motivated them to make the decision to emigrate.”

Ola Sidani, Program Coordinator at the American University of Beirut Observatory, explained in the report that “all indications indicate that Lebanon is currently facing a massive wave of brain drain, as this emigration is irreversible.”

“Lebanon will have to address the problems of the high number of elderly people among the population and the aging of society,” Sidani indicated.

“The lack of job opportunities is what prompted most of the Lebanese youth to emigrate,” she pointed out.

The World Bank estimates that one in five people has lost a job since the fall of 2019, and that 61% of companies in Lebanon reduced their permanent employees by 43%.

In the same context, the resident and humanitarian coordinator of the United Nations in Lebanon, Najat Rushdie, announced on October 1, 2021, that: “78% of the Lebanese (nearly 3 million people) live below the poverty line.”

The figures related to the emigration of the Lebanese, which were reported by the Observatory, are worrying, as the passports issued by the General Security Directorate from the beginning of the year until the end of August 2021 amounted to 260,000 passports, an 82% increase over the same period in 2020.

On its part, the General Security Directorate said that requests to issue passports amounted to 8,000 requests per day, which exceeded its capacity to accommodate 3,500 requests per day, which forced it to announce a new tender to print one million new passports to meet the heavy demands.

According to press reports, the number of Lebanese immigrants during the last three years has exceeded 117,000.

It is noteworthy that Lebanon witnessed two waves of exodus, the first exodus during the First World War in 1914, when 330,000 citizens emigrated (30% of the population), the second exodus was during the civil war from 1975 to 1990, when 990,000 citizens emigrated (36% of the population).

 

Motivating Factors

According to a research report, the number of Lebanese residents on Lebanese soil is about 5 million people, while the number of the Lebanese community distributed in all parts of the world ranged from 12 to more than 18 million people of Lebanese origin.

From his point of view, the writer and political analyst, Mahmoud Alloush, sees in a statement to Al-Estiklal that: “Economic motives seem to be the apparent reason for the high rates of Lebanese emigration.; But the reality is it's a motivating factor, because the despair of the possibility of political change has further affected the choices of youth regarding emigration, especially the competencies.”

“In the past, these competencies preferred to stay in Lebanon and live in moderate economic conditions; But that is no longer possible today because the economic collapse has destroyed the middle class,” Alloush pointed out.

“The majority of the Lebanese are now convinced that the country will not return to what it was before the crisis, and that the political regime that has run it since the end of the civil war is unable to do anything to improve the situation, this has spread a state of extreme despair among the people,” the political analyst explained.

Mahmoud Alloush commented on the Observatory's report on the existence of threats to the future of the fabric of Lebanese society, saying: “The emigration of the Lebanese during the previous wars was more prominent among the Christians, unlike today, where the emigration of youth is not limited to a particular sect, rather, it includes the various Lebanese sects and from all regions.”

The Lebanese analyst concluded his statement by saying: “What Lebanon is currently witnessing is an exodus of medical and educational staff, this will have severe effects on the country's future in the short and long term.”

 

No Earnest Signs

According to the Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, lawyers who work on emigration files no longer have free time, they are bombarded with requests from Lebanese who wish to emigrate to Canada, Australia, Cyprus, Turkey or West African countries.

The newspaper quoted one of the lawyers as saying: “Requests for emigration has increased by 75%, and that he is currently working on dozens of requests, most of them to Canada, they are educated youth with specializations such as pharmacy, information technology or financial affairs.”

Turkey seems the easiest destination for the Lebanese because it does not require a visa, as they can spend 90 days in Turkish territory, this allows them to search and see ways to obtain permanent residence or Turkish citizenship.

On her part, Karen (a young Lebanese woman) said in a statement to Al-Estiklal: “I am thinking of Canada as an emigration option. I want to be a citizen with her rights according to the criterion of competence, not political loyalty and favoritism. I can no longer stand the anxiety and fear of tomorrow.”

Observers pointed out that “the Lebanese financial system collapsed in 2019 after decades of corruption and political impotence, with the country subsequently entering a stifling economic crisis amid political disputes, the repercussions of the Corona pandemic and Beirut port explosion in August 2020.”

“While there were no earnest signs of improving the economic situation on the horizon, it also does not seem that the ruling political class actually wants to carry out reforms that would enable the Lebanese to lead a decent life, it is not excluded that Lebanon will lose more of its youth who are looking for opportunities to secure their lives outside the borders,” according to observers.