How Will the Republican Victory in Congress Affect Biden’s Administration?

The New York Times published an article by its correspondent Michael Crowley, arguing that Republican control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections could complicate the Biden administration’s efforts to defend Ukraine and lead to public questioning of officials who participated in the US withdrawal from Afghanistan last year.

Crowley explained that Congress has more influence over domestic affairs than foreign policy, thanks to the president’s sweeping powers as commander-in-chief. But Democrats are preparing for a more politicized national security environment if Republicans control legislative platforms, committee chairmanships, and budget allocations.

 

Republican Intentions

Even more troubling for the Biden administration is the prospect of Republicans slowing the flow of money and weapons into Ukraine, which began before Russia’s invasion in February.

Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California, the minority leader, said last month that if the House of Representatives were led by Republicans, it would not be willing to approve blank checks for Ukraine.

Congress has approved $60 billion in aid to Ukraine since the war began, without explicit conditions. But some Republicans, encouraged by prominent conservatives such as Fox News host Tucker Carlson, are increasingly questioning the price of US aid to the country.

However, many conservatives doubt that McCarthy’s comments and those of some Republican candidates mean the Republican-led House of Representatives will limit US support.

Danielle Pletka, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a former member of the Senate Foreign Policy Committee, called McCarthy’s remark a completely empty and pandering statement and said she was not concerned about the party’s commitment to defending Ukraine.

“I think it’s just an attempt to gauge the reaction to this growing divide within the Republican Party between the traditional wing and the populist wing of the party,” Daniel said, referring to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has become the hero of many conservatives loyal to former President Donald Trump.

But Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky implicitly rebuked McCarthy by saying last month that the United States should do more to support Kyiv.

But several Republican senators clinging to Ukraine’s support will retire at the end of the current congressional session: Rob Portman of Ohio, Richard Burr of North Carolina, and Ben Sasse of Nebraska.

One possible scenario is a new Republican focus on censorship to ensure that US weapons and aid are not diverted from intended use in a country with a history of deep corruption. The memo was issued in June by two Republicans nominated to become chairmen of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Republican Rep. Mike McCaul of Texas and Republican Senator Jim Risch of Idaho wrote that US assistance to Ukraine “will neither be effective nor politically sustainable without strong oversight and accountability mechanisms.” But both men are committed to helping Ukraine.

Both have been highly critical of the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. Both likely will summon Biden officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, for public hearings.

McCall wrote to Blinken in mid-October asking the State Department to retain all documents and correspondence that may “be potentially responsive to a future congressional inquiry, request, investigation, or subpoena.”

In an August statement marking the anniversary of the fall of Kabul, Risch complained that “we still don’t have full answers as to how the Biden administration failed to see it coming and did not have an effective plan in place to evacuate American citizens and Afghan partners.”

Pletka said: “They are going to drag the Biden administration over the coals over Afghanistan.”

Several Republicans called for Blinken’s resignation after the evacuation of Kabul, and two House Republicans introduced a resolution calling for his impeachment. But Republicans say they don’t expect such efforts to gain momentum.

McCall paid special attention to China and expressed impatience with the pace of deliveries of US weapons purchased by Taiwan to defend against a possible Chinese invasion.

He also said he would insist on further tightening export controls to deprive China of critical US technology it could use for military purposes

The lawmaker led a Republican House task force on China that released a report in 2020 calling for measures such as increased military spending, new sanctions to punish Chinese human rights violations, and tougher measures to counter Chinese propaganda.

 

Escalation Against Iran

Crowley argues that Republicans in both chambers are eager to pressure the Biden administration on its Iran policy.

Many have criticized President Biden for not doing more to support the demonstrators who have been protesting for weeks against the mullahs’ regime in the country.

Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hardline think tank that advocates relentless pressure on the Iranian government, said: “Republicans are going to put Iran back on the front burner in Washington. They will introduce one bill after another to impose sanctions on Tehran.”

The gains by congressional Republicans will also further complicate Biden’s efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, from which former President Donald Trump withdrew.

International talks to restore the deal have been stalled for weeks, and Biden officials have expressed skepticism that Tehran is willing to scale back its nuclear program to ease sanctions.

But large Republican gains in the US Senate could make a breakthrough more difficult to achieve. Under a law passed by Congress in 2015, the House of Representatives and Senate can vote to express rejection of the nuclear deal with Tehran and block the president’s ability to lift sanctions on Iran’s economy that Congress had previously imposed.

What makes matters more difficult for Biden is the expected return of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has had close ties to Republican leaders in Congress.

Obama’s White House was furious in 2015 when Netanyahu accepted an invitation to address Congress from Republican Chairman John Boehner, criticizing Obama’s efforts to reach a nuclear deal with Iran.

Like many Republicans in Congress, Netanyahu has sharply criticized Biden’s efforts to negotiate with Iran and may ally with them again.

The Republican Senate could also slow down the confirmation of Biden’s nominees for national security positions throughout the government.

In particular, the administration is still waiting for the Senate to confirm more than 30 ambassadorial nominees, as well as other picks for middle and senior positions in the State Department. They include ambassadors to Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, Nigeria, and the United Arab Emirates.

Crowley concludes that Democrats hope to confirm many of them before the end of the year. If they are unable to do so, nominations will expire, and candidates must be renominated again at the beginning of the next cycle.