How Did Biden Divide the Democratic Party?

Nuha Yousef | a year ago

12

Print

Share

Iran's assault on Israeli targets has intensified the already formidable pressures confronting President Joe Biden's nuanced stance on the Gaza conflict.

Throughout the Israeli military operation, Biden has grappled with aligning his longstanding pro-"Israel" leanings with mounting disapproval within his party of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's wartime actions.

Biden's critiques of Netanyahu have been on the rise for months, yet the onset of the Iranian offensive saw the president revert to a stance of staunch support for the Israeli Occupation.

Full Clash

The volley of missiles and drones unleashed by Iran on the Israeli Occupation could temporarily curb the growing calls from Congressional Democrats for Biden to halt arms sales to the Israeli Occupation until it significantly alters its Gaza strategy.

Nonetheless, barring a full-blown clash between the Israeli Occupation and Iran, the recent hostilities are unlikely to alleviate these demands, particularly as some Democrats are critical of the Israeli aggression on Gaza.

The Iranian threat nudged Biden back to his traditional pro-"Israel" position, and it risks further alienating him from an increasing faction of Democrats advocating for a more profound shift in U.S. support for the Gaza conflict.

Prior to Iran's retaliation, Biden contended with greater intra-party division over his management of the "Israel"–Hamas conflict than any Democratic president in recent memory on a foreign policy matter.

Biden's Democratic predecessors — Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama — all encountered internal party dissent over pivotal foreign policy choices.

Yet, according to many who served in past Democratic administrations, none of those disputes sparked the level of enduring discord now witnessed by Biden across three key areas: Congressional criticism, public opinion disapproval, and persistent public demonstrations.

"The impact is significant when those typically unengaged in foreign policy speak out," observed Ben Rhodes, former deputy national security adviser for strategic communications under Obama. "Such a phenomenon was absent during my tenure or Clinton's."

"But now, core Democratic constituencies feel utterly estranged by the unfolding events and the absence of pressure on Israel to change course, a situation without precedent."

Long-Term Effects

The current strife hasn't splintered Democrats as severely as the 2003 Iraq War did. Hillary Clinton's vote authorizing military action against Iraq partly cost her the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination to Obama.

However, that intense debate centered on the Democrats' response to a war decision made by Republican President George W. Bush.

The public and Congressional dissatisfaction with the current conflict doesn't match the partisan opposition that arose against Democratic President Lyndon Johnson's Vietnam War escalation in the 1960s.

Yet, while the present opposition falls short of that historic peak, it has left Biden vulnerable to a faint reverberation of that era's accusations of backing an unjust war.

White House aides and Biden's re-election campaign staff uniformly maintain an optimistic outlook, believing that despite polls indicating rising Democratic concern over the conflict, it won't cost the president votes from those predisposed to favor him over former President Donald Trump.

Not all concur with this optimism, and many Democrats worry that the political peril for Biden will escalate the longer the conflict persists.

"If the conflict resolves within three months, Biden might have sufficient time to rebound, but if it extends beyond six months, the impact will be palpable," confided a senior administration official, requesting anonymity during internal discussions in media statements to The Atlantic.

Party strategists fear not that dissatisfied Democrats, particularly the youth, will defect to Trump — who is unlikely to impose "Israel"-related constraints.

His chief immigration advisor, Stephen Miller, has even publicly menaced pro-Palestinian demonstrators with deportation.

The concern is that Biden's war handling might further disengage young voters already lukewarm towards him, driving them towards third-party options or abstention.

"This complicates Biden's rapport with the youth," stated Ben Tulchin, chief pollster for Sen. Bernie Sanders' presidential bids. "It's yet another issue requiring mending. The hope is that the war's intensity will have subsided in six months."

Escalating Tension

Discontent with the war and Biden's approach is escalating among Democrats, which is evident in three opposition indicators.

The first is Congressional. Following Israeli missile strikes that claimed the lives of World Central Kitchen staff, 56 Democratic House members petitioned Biden to suspend Israeli arms transfers pending an independent probe into the incident.

Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, a moderate and Hillary Clinton's 2016 vice-presidential pick, earlier called for a cessation of "bombs and other offensive weaponry that could harm civilians and aid workers."

Earlier this year, 19 Democratic senators, spearheaded by Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, proposed legislation to curtail U.S. military assistance to "Israel."

To mitigate this threat, the Biden administration released a national security memo instituting a new protocol to evaluate if "Israel" and other U.S. military aid recipients are complying with international law in weapon usage and aiding in the distribution of humanitarian assistance, whether directly from the U.S. or through supporting international entities.

Should the forthcoming May 8 report find "Israel" non-compliant, it may prompt more Democrats to urge Biden to suspend arms transfers.

Amidst the escalating tensions, there's an evident pattern of the president's reasonable overtures being disregarded by the Netanyahu administration, leading to a continued flow of heavy ordnance to the region, as noted by Senator Van Hollen.

A sentiment is brewing among senators for a more robust utilization of available policy instruments rather than solely attempting to sway Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Senator Van Hollen articulated on Sunday that while the U.S. must persist in updating the defensive capabilities of "Israel" against Iranian strikes, the Biden administration should leverage its full suite of diplomatic tools to influence Israeli policy in Gaza.

This stance signals Van Hollen's belief that the threat of withholding offensive arms should remain on the table.

Public sentiment, as gauged by recent polls, reflects a growing discontent among Democrats with the ongoing conflict and the U.S. government's response.

A Quinnipiac University survey revealed that nearly two-thirds of Democratic respondents oppose further military aid to "Israel."

Similarly, a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted before the latest hostilities indicated that while most Democrats support U.S. backing of "Israel" against Iran, a significant majority are against arms transfers for the conflict with Hamas.

Nearly half suggest that President Biden should press for a complete cessation of the Israeli Occupation's military operations, with an additional quarter advocating for a reduction.