Germany and France: How the Rupture of Relations Between the Two Largest European Economies Affects the Bloc

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began less than three months after Scholz took over the German chancellorship last December, caused a crisis in France and Germany, which made several decisions due to the pressure of the war, the repercussions of which worried both sides.
Therefore, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in his recent visit to France to meet with President Emmanuel Macron, tried to settle the existing disputes between the two sides, which prompted European observers to fear for the fate of the European Union as Germany and France are the two most powerful countries in the bloc, which is engaged in a fierce economic struggle with Russia.
The French-German duo, which constitutes a third of the European Union's population and two-fifths of the GDP, is supposed to embody Europe's leadership but has stumbled recently.
Others say that Germany has not been following the European herd and rather solving its problems without giving enough importance to Europe.
But there are also those who say that the French do not really realize the force of the shock to the German economy since the beginning of the war, which is forcing the government to take steps of this kind.
Whatever the extent of the dispute between the two main components of the EU, its continuation and perhaps its expansion may lead to the EU's cracking and possibly its disintegration, as some Europeans fear.
Deep Disputes
The German-French summit was held on October 26, 2022, amid disputes involving many sensitive issues for the two countries, which were demonstrated in the recent unprecedented postponement of a joint ministerial meeting between Paris and Berlin, the first meeting of its kind since Scholz became chancellor.
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have expressed their desire to re-launch faltered French-German relations after a series of disputes over the war in Ukraine and the bleak outlook for economic growth in Europe.
The two leaders met for more than three hours over lunch, including thirty minutes alone. However, the meeting did not lead to any joint statement from Macron and Scholz, who smiled in front of the cameras in the Elysee courtyard.
On his part, the German chancellor confirmed in a tweet after talks at the Elysee Palace that France and Germany remain very close and are facing challenges together, and said: "It was a very important and good discussion today about European energy supplies, price hikes, and joint armaments projects."
Sources in the delegation accompanying the German chancellor told Deutsche Welle that Scholz and Macron tried during their talks to settle the disputes between the two sides.
In the aftermath of the German-French summit, these sources said that the meeting was very intense and was very full of the spirit of partnership.
The sources added that the meeting was strategic self-assertion by adopting one opinion on important issues and indicated that the two sides considered this a complete success.
In turn, the Elysee welcomed the discussion held by the two leaders, and the French presidency added in a statement that "the two leaders intend to advance a common agenda for sovereignty, re-industrialization and reducing carbon emissions in Europe."
"They reaffirmed their adherence to the principle of European solidarity in energy matters as well as their desire to strengthen European defense and cooperation on launch platforms," according to the Elysee.
It is not yet known whether the French-German dispute is on the way to a solution, especially since the statements that were published are structural and not without a diplomatic flavor, in addition to the disputes in style between the pragmatic and technocratic Schultz and the idealist Macron.
Especially if we know that instead of the working lunch that took place between Macron and Scholz recently, the French-German cabinet was scheduled to meet in Paris, but it was postponed, and the reason is the need to coordinate on bilateral issues, according to a spokesman for the German government, as well as the Elysee Palace.
It is true that the meeting of the governments of the two countries is often not of particular importance, but it is important for this particular time because it is supposed to discuss vital files and comes amid a major European crisis and a war on its doors. Yet it was canceled because five German ministers, including Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, wanted their autumn holidays, according to press reports.
There is no doubt that the reasons for postponing that meeting until the beginning of next year are clear evidence of the existence of deep disputes between the two partner countries.
In turn, Stefan Seidendorf, deputy director of the German-French Institute, commented that "since the start of this meeting in 1963, no meeting has been canceled."
Energy Crisis
Disputes between Paris and Berlin have multiplied in recent weeks over the strategy to be adopted to confront high energy prices, nuclear energy, and European armaments, and this is causing concern in Europe, where the French-German engine remains a major driving force.
During the recent European summit, Emmanuel Macron warned Berlin against isolation, saying it was neither good for Germany nor Europe.
Germany's decision to spend up to €200 billion to support high gas and electricity prices and its refusal to set a ceiling on energy prices at the EU level has alarmed the French partner and other European countries who fear the impact of the German decision on their energy costs.
France is among the countries that support such a ceiling for energy prices in Europe, especially for gas that is used to produce electricity.
Macron said he intends to work towards a joint European debt sustainability program.
However, Schultz rejects the move, as he said there is still a lot of money available from the support program created during the Coronavirus crisis.
There is some speculation that Berlin is unhappy with Paris because it has not given it enough support in its attempt to revive the so-called MidCat gas pipeline project, linking Portugal and Spain and passing through France to Germany.
This line connects Algeria with Spain, and its extension to Germany was accepted by German, Spanish and Portuguese, but the French rejected it on the pretext that they do not want to invest in natural gas infrastructure and that they prefer nuclear energy, which the Germans reject.
At the recent European summit, the French president announced that his country, in cooperation with Portugal and Spain, wanted to build a new line to transport hydrogen, as well as gas only in cases of emergency, between Barcelona and Marseille.
This project would be an alternative to plans to build a pipeline to transport gas between Spain and France through the Pyrenees, which was favored by Germany.
It is noteworthy that Germany is currently studying with other partners the construction of a pipeline around France, from Spain to Belgium via a sea route that could also be linked to Britain, to replace Russian supplies.
Military Armament
There is a deep dispute between France and Germany on defense issues as well.
It is true that Germany has changed its traditional policy and increased its military expenditures, but it is counting on direct purchases instead of joint European projects, which also contradicts the French position.
German officials have also expressed displeasure with what they say is Macron's reluctance to send significant military support to Ukraine and prompted him to make regular phone calls with Putin and make conciliatory comments seen by Eastern European countries as a form of appeasement.
Note that France had criticized Germany's support for Ukraine, especially when the German Chancellor tried to turn the page on military aid by opposing sending tanks to Ukraine to avoid any Russian escalation that might, in turn, lead to a third world war.
It is noteworthy that Germany also recently announced a major shift in its defense policies aimed at making its exhausted army the best-equipped force in Europe after decades of under-spending.
Although the Berlin allies welcomed the change of direction after years of under-spending, the influx of cash (a €100 billion support package to balance the German army) did not translate into major contracts for the EU or, in particular, for French arms companies, which is one of the motivations behind Macron's calls for broader European sovereignty.
For years, Macron has been demanding what he calls European strategic independence, freedom from military dependence on the US because that would mean the revival of French military industries as an alternative to the American one.
Instead, Germany is rushing to buy expensive US-made goods such as F-35 jet fighters and Patriot air defense systems.
French sensitivities are understandable, given that long-term solutions and investment in encouraging national industries will yield great benefits, but for other European countries, including Germany, they do not solve the immediate problems. Thus, they prefer quick solutions with immediate effect, even if they cost them a lot.
Moreover, France is resentful of not being included in an initiative led by Germany and 14 NATO countries called the European Sky Shield Initiative, which would rely on the purchase of large quantities of US and Israeli air defense batteries.
Meanwhile, German officials say France has received an invitation to join, but they have refused.
In return, France is working with Italy to develop an air and missile defense system called Mamba.
On her part, Ronja Kempin, a senior fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, said: "Macron has for a long time been pushing for the EU to function with smaller, issue-specific working groups and is opposed to an EU expansion before it's been reformed. He sees the EU as a way to widen France's power."
With Macron weakened on the domestic front after his centrist grouping lost its absolute majority in parliament in the June elections, Marie Krpata, Research Fellow at the Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa), said: "Emmanuel Macron's standing depends on the EU at the moment. He is weakened on internal politics so is trying to find his identity and profile through European action."
German-French disputes may lead to the destruction of European unity due to increasing economic pressures, as Europe faces difficulty in staying united on the path of a war whose cost is increasing day by day.
The war on Ukraine and sanctions against Russia have shocked the prices of oil, gas, and electricity, on which the European economy depends for all its industries.
However, Europe is acting slowly and is having difficulty in formulating a common position, as interests differ widely between countries that rely on nuclear energy, such as France, and countries, such as Germany, that use coal or those located in central Europe that are historically linked to Russian supplies.
Sources
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