'Gaza Agreement Ends Genocide': Trump’s True Intent or Another Tactic with Netanyahu?

Despite outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden's statement just 24 hours before leaving office that talks on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire would begin on the 16th day and aim for a “permanent end to the war,” “Israel” continues to emphasize that the ceasefire is merely a temporary measure.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists that he received a “commitment” from newly elected President Donald Trump to continue the war, as part of a “package of gifts” brought by his adviser Steven Witkoff, in exchange for Netanyahu's forced acceptance of the Gaza deal.

However, Trump's January 19, 2025, warning on NBC News — urging an “end to the war” and vowing to pressure Netanyahu to “end the war in Gaza” — starkly contrasts with the claims from Israeli officials.

It remains unclear whether the ceasefire agreement between “Israel” and Hamas will actually lead to the war's end. Israeli analysts suggest the agreement may be fragile, with the war potentially resuming and the second phase failing to materialize due to “multiple complexities.”

Promise or Reassurance?

On January 18, 2025, Netanyahu said Trump “emphasized” to him that the ceasefire is “temporary,” and “Israel will have full backing” to resume the war in Gaza. He told Sky News that Trump has decided to “lift all the remaining restrictions” on U.S. munitions, allowing “Israel” to resume the war with “tremendous force.”

Following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, Netanyahu informed his finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and others that there was an “alternative explanation” for the actual terms of the ceasefire, as reported by the Israeli media.

To convince them not to resign, Netanyahu reportedly told them not to take the official ceasefire agreement at face value, assuring them that both Biden and Trump had provided guarantees that they would overlook any violations of the agreement after the first phase was implemented.

In his speech accepting “the deal,” Netanyahu also stated that “Israel” retains the right to resume fighting in Gaza with American support. 

“If we must return to fighting, we will do that in new, forceful ways.”

For his part, Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the Religious Zionist Party, said he had reached “full understandings” with Netanyahu regarding the resumption of war and had received a commitment from Netanyahu to restart the aggression, or else he would resign and bring down the government.

Israeli political analyst Zvi Bar’el of Haaretz confirmed last week that Netanyahu’s government does not intend to proceed to the second phase of the prisoner deal, otherwise, a single comprehensive deal would been selected. 

“If the government were serious about its intention to complete a comprehensive agreement, to get ‘every last’ hostage back, to save soldiers' lives, and to pay the price for a deal, why didn't it go for one comprehensive deal, in one go, without dividing into phases, when it's clear that the results will be identical to a two-stage deal?” he asked

“The answer to this leads to the conclusion that the government doesn't intend to reach the second phase of the deal, and the phase's very existence attests to its malicious intentions.”

“And indeed, this conclusion makes it imperative to save every life possible in the first phase, as if there would never be a second phase,” Bar'el said.

According to intelligence affairs analyst Ronen Bergman of Yedioth Ahronoth, Tel Aviv agreed to the prisoner exchange and ceasefire deal after Trump offered Netanyahu and his ministers several “gifts,” including going back to the war.

Bergman confirmed, citing Israeli sources, that Trump promised Netanyahu that, in exchange for agreeing to the current deal, he would support resuming the war on Gaza in the future if Netanyahu decided to violate the ceasefire and renew the fighting.

American journalist Jeremy Scahill also predicted that “Israel” would seek ways to continue its war on Gaza after releasing as many prisoners as possible.

Trump Doesn't Want It!

While some Israeli officials suggest war may continue, their claims of Trump’s commitment seem more tied to the first phase, not the second — contradicting the ceasefire agreement and lacking sincerity.

They clash with the terms of the deal, which stipulates that if both sides reach an understanding on the second phase, it will lead to a permanent ceasefire and the release of the remaining Palestinian detainees and Israeli captives.

Israeli Kan Radio quoted Israeli officials involved in the ceasefire talks as saying that “any pledge by Netanyahu to his political partners to return to fighting after the first stage is a breach of the agreement which is also likely to thwart the first stage.”

Israeli analysts argue that Netanyahu's comments about Trump's commitment along with Smotrich's statements, are simply “reassurances” aimed at ministers of the “Zionist camp” who had threatened to resign. 

They assert there will be no return to war because Trump does not want it and has no interest in that.

Eyal Ofer and Filda Arbeli of Maariv reported that Netanyahu's ministers told political reporters in “Israel” that “a return to combat after the first phase is possible.”

“The Israeli journalists were informed President-elect Donald Trump had assured Israel the U.S. would support resuming the fight if Hamas violated the ceasefire agreement,” they confirmed.

However, both considered this a “superficial matter,” pointing out “bitter truths” unknown to the Israeli public, which they believe will not lead to “resuming war.”

“Netanyahu and his ministers are selling the Israeli public stories that hide the harsh truths beneath. These claims about Gaza's destruction are merely illusions, spun to divert attention from the reality that Gazans are returning to their land, even if it's just in tents, alongside the revival of Hamas governance and the start of reconstruction.”

Trump clearly settled the matter in an extensive interview with NBC News on January 19, warning against violating the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, and stating that hell will break loose if both sides do not adhere to the agreement.

In the interview, Trump made it clear to Netanyahu, “This has to end.” His message? A firm push for the war to finally stop.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar emphasized the need for a complete end to the war in a press conference on January 19. He acknowledged that Hamas had not been fully eliminated, and the Israeli government would consider a permanent ceasefire after 16 days.

Points Could Derail the Agreement

The second phase of the ceasefire agreement marks a decisive turning point in the “Israel-Hamas conflict.” It aims to achieve a permanent halt to military operations, a complete Israeli withdrawal, and the creation of a stable long-term environment.

The third phase holds significant weight in shaping Gaza's future, given its main provision: defining the “day after,” which “Israel,” the U.S., Arab governments, and the Ramallah authority insist must not include Hamas's authority in Gaza.

Due to Israeli obstinacy in the first phase of the ceasefire, Hamas announced initiatives to postpone the contentious issues for phases two and three.

Israeli Kan Radio, citing sources familiar with the prisoner exchange negotiations, reported on January 3 that mediators reached agreements to “defer discussion of any contentious issues to phase two of the deal.”

The most contentious issues include a permanent end to the war, Israeli Occupation’s full withdrawal from Gaza, and the release of senior Palestinian detainees—such as Marwan Barghouti, Ahmad Sa'adat, Abdullah Barghouti, and others—who are considered significant figures in the exchange deal.

The use of vague language in the agreement, such as “a number to be agreed upon” for the Palestinian detainees to be released, could be a deliberate tactic by “Israel,” thus creating “a minefield” for phase two.

“Analysts and observers have pointed out that the design of the agreement, constructed over three phases that require new negotiations to take place as the ceasefire goes forward, appears structured to invite multiple crises as it edges towards ever more difficult terrain,” as per The Guardian.

On the sixteenth day of the ceasefire, negotiations for phase two of the deal will begin, and if all goes well, all captives will be released. However, this will be contingent on Israeli Occupation’s full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, a matter “Israel” continues to maneuver on while demanding a buffer zone between Gaza and its “own territory.”

A satirical video circulating on Israeli social media showed Netanyahu and his defense minister pledging that Hamas would not exist in the “day after the war,” with resistance fighters from Hamas's al-Qassam Brigade vehicles visible in the background, which sparked anger among Israelis.

Military analyst Amos Harel, in a report for Haaretz on January 19, 2025, stated that “many obstacles are expected” during the implementation of the first phase of the exchange deal.

“Many details of the agreement remained classified, presumably concealed, and are apparently hidden in the appendix,” he said.

Hamas's goal is to secure the release of a large number of “Palestinian prisoners,” which will expand significantly in the second phase and will be portrayed as a victory for Gaza's residents in the war, something Netanyahu does not want, according to Harel.

“Netanyahu [said] he has unequivocal guarantees from the Americans to support Israel's return to fighting, if the negotiations fail.”

“But who determines that the negotiations have failed and whose fault it is?”

“So far, at least, Trump is signaling a desire to complete the hostage deal, end the war in Gaza, and move on to what really interests him in the region - a Saudi deal, curbing Iranian nuclear ambition, and getting a Nobel Peace Prize for himself,” the analyst added.

“While Netanyahu is reluctant to advance to the second phase, there are two main factors that will press for implementing the deal in full: the Trump administration and Israeli public opinion.”

Harel put it clear, “If Trump forces Netanyahu to go on to the second phase, Netanyahu's coalition is unlikely to survive.”