4 Scenarios That Determine the Fate of Boris Johnson in the British Government

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing the worst crisis since taking office in the summer of 2019, after revealing information about loud parties organized at the headquarters of the government, while the United Kingdom was subject to strict health restrictions due to the outbreak of the Coronavirus.

Whether from his supporters or opponents, pressures and voices calling for Johnson (57 years old) to step down from his position are mounting noticeably, amid his insistence on staying.

To divert attention from his crisis, Johnson took a number of measures that many saw as populist, while media circles expected several scenarios about his fate that will become clear in the coming days.

Big Scandal

According to the British Manchester Evening News website, an investigation is underway into at least eight incidents that occurred in the Prime Minister's official residence and office in Downing Street in London.

On January 14, 2022, it indicated that the details of the alleged events had been published in the media in recent weeks, but it is not known if the investigation is looking at other events that have not yet been reported.

“Some events have been confirmed by government departments and those involved, while other reports have been denied,” it said.

Among those events, the incident of April 16, 2021, the night before the funeral of Prince Philip, the husband of Queen Elizabeth, stands out. The scene was quite different in Johnson's Downing Street office and residence.

Where employees held two celebrations, one of which was attended by 30 people, violating the social ban decisions that were imposed at the same time.

The Daily Telegraph reported on January 14, 2022, that this gathering included drinking and dancing, until the early hours of the day of the funeral.

One of the iconic images of Prince Philip's funeral, Duke of Edinburgh, was an image of Queen Elizabeth II, seated alone, bound by the strict coronavirus restrictions at the time.

Johnson also faces another investigation into the financing of his apartment renovation, in addition to the presence of parties hostile to Johnson within his Conservative Party, from the former Prime Minister Theresa May, because he purged many of their colleagues before the last election.

On January 15, dozens of people demonstrated outside Downing Street, calling for Johnson to resign.

What further complicates Johnson's position is the emergence of more reports confirming that parties and gatherings are held in Downing Street during periods of closure and restrictions imposed due to the face of the Coronavirus pandemic.

The announcement of these events caused an uproar in Britain and resonated with the people who still vividly remember the pandemic sacrifices they were asked to make.

 

Wide Anger

Anger and resentment against Johnson is rising widely among Conservative Party members and its supporters over the Downing Street scandal.

A poll conducted by YouGov, a British research and data analysis company, shows the split of voters who voted Conservative in 2019, where 41 percent think Johnson should be removed, 47 percent want him to stay.

The poll, which was conducted between January 12-13, also showed that 63 percent of Britons expressed their belief that he should resign.

The poll showed that even among those who say they currently intend to vote for the Conservative Party, 19 percent think Johnson should be removed.

The Guardian indicated in a report on January 17 that Conservative Party MPs' emails are filled with messages on the issue of parties in Downing Street.

Conservative societies across Britain said that “their members were growing frustrated with Johnson's continued presence, and some were leaving the party in protest.”

What increases fears within the Conservative Party about the impact of this scandal on the results of the local elections in May 2022.

Cabinet member West Oxfordshire County Council Merilyn Davies said: “If the prime minister wanted Conservative councilors to have a chance to reclaim their seats in May, he would have to step aside.”

The rising discontent among opponents and members of the party and its popular base moved to the donors and donors, some of whom publicly expressed their fears of the effects of that scandal.

The Sunday Times reported on January 16 the resignation of John Griffin, one of the most generous donors from the Conservative Party, calling on Johnson to resign for the sake of the party and the country.

“Griffin is at least the fifth donor to raise his concerns publicly, while other donors have been told they will no longer make new donations until Johnson leaves,” the newspaper said.

 

Rebellion Against Johnson

It appears that the rebellion within Johnson's party began before the investigations were launched about parties and gatherings that violated the measures imposed by the government to control the Coronavirus pandemic.

A report by The New York Times in mid-December 2021 revealed a rebellion of conservative lawmakers within Parliament, and that was when a record number of them voted against one of the measures taken by Johnson to stop the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic, after the daily infections reached more than 200 thousand due to the mutant Omicron.

Although the Conservatives voted against the resolution, it was passed with the help of the opposition, as it has done in many of the related Coronavirus measures.

The report considered that this was a scathing reprimand by the Conservatives to their leader, which led to the undermining of his authority, at a time when he called for a national campaign to prevent Omicron from flooding the country.

“This rebellion among Conservative lawmakers is the worst since Johnson's victory in the 2019 elections and represents a severe embarrassment for him,” the newspaper said.

Nearly 40 Conservative MPs voted against the government's plan to expand mandatory use of face masks in mid-December 2021.

“Behind the rebellion within the Conservative Party lie the shifting political currents that could pose a major threat to Johnson, which is driven by the party's decline in opinion polls, against the unprecedented rise of the Labor Party,” it added.

 

Johnson's Dribble

In an attempt that some saw as aimed at diverting attention from his crisis, Johnson took a number of measures, including: Assigning the army to confront migrants in the English Channel, reducing the number of small boats crossing into the country, and freezing license fees paid to the BBC for two years.

In response to the timing of these decisions, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon accused the British Prime Minister of resorting to cheap popular policies, to divert attention from the scandals sweeping his leadership.

“Instead of Johnson taking responsibility, he appears to be preparing to place the blame on those who work with him and those around him,” Sturgeon noted.

“Everything Johnson did underscores the feeling that he is trying to clean up his reputation and that he has been irreparably damaged,” Sturgeon said.

The British Evening Standard newspaper says that Johnson's government ministers are putting together a series of policies, under the title Operation Red Meat, in order to revive Johnson's image and satisfy Conservative MPs.

In its report on January 17, 2022, the newspaper considered the statement of the Minister of Culture, Nadine Dorries, that the license fees that finance the BBC will be frozen within this operation.

As for the British newspaper, The Herald, it considered the attack on the BBC as a tactic and a deviation by the Minister of Culture to defend her president.

The BBC license is a flat fee paid by all British families of 159 pounds a year for offers and services, including: TV, radio, website, podcasts and station applications, but many British families are demanding that it stop.

4 Scenarios

With the Conservative Party plunging in the polls and its MPs feeling desperate, governors are freaking out about a massacre in the upcoming May elections.

In light of the increasing pressures on the British Prime Minister and the escalation of internal demands in the party, especially from MPs, for Johnson to step down, on January 16, the Guardian predicted four scenarios for Johnson's fate as prime minister.

Regarding the first scenario, the newspaper expected that Johnson would leave the government within a few days, under the weight of the drain of domestic support, the party's plunge in opinion polls, and angry mailings flooding the mailboxes of MPs.

The second scenario indicates that Johnson may leave the government approximately two weeks after the results of the investigations into the gatherings held inside Downing Street during the closing period.

In the third scenario, the newspaper expects that the investigations will fail, and then the party’s representatives will give the prime minister another chance, allowing Johnson to remain in office until the local elections scheduled for May 2022; but if the election results in heavy losses for the Conservative Party, Johnson would be forced to resign by party rules.

As for the last scenario, according to the Guardian, it is that Johnson will stay until the next elections, given that the results of the investigations will appear naive and full of evasions, this allows Johnson to escape the impasse and puts the Conservative Party back on the front line.