Does the Influence of the Wagner Rebellion Extend to Eastern Europe?

As Wagner’s revolt enters its second week, the fate of the renegade Russian mercenary group remains unclear.

Some reports suggest that its forces have relocated, and its leader is hiding in Belarus, where the group’s presence has alarmed Eastern European countries and added a new layer of complexity to an already tense geopolitical situation.

The New York Times reported last month that Wagner had moved to a deserted camp 80 miles from Minsk, the Belarusian capital, raising concerns among neighboring countries on NATO’s eastern flank.

 

Source of Threat

Last week, Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, called Wagner’s presence in Belarus a “potential threat” to the region.

Wagner’s activities are not only a source of anxiety for Poland and other NATO members in Eastern Europe but also pose several security dilemmas for the Western bloc, which has questioned the motives of the military group near Minsk.

Despite the turmoil, Wagner remains a busy recruitment center in Russia, operating outside the control of the Russian Defense Ministry.

A comprehensive investigation by the French newspaper Le Figaro revealed that Wagner’s headquarters had resumed their full capacity in recruiting fighters, which came as a surprise after many reports indicated a wide Russian campaign to ban and shut down the group’s offices in the country.

In response to Duda’s earlier remarks, Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, said on Thursday, “I don’t think Wagner will turn against Belarus.”

Lukashenko confirmed that Wagner’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was still in Russia despite an agreement with the Kremlin to move to Belarus after his rebellion last month.

He said that Wagner’s fighters were “in their barracks” and not in Belarus “for now.”

He added, “If [the Russian government and Wagner group] deem it necessary to deploy some Wagner fighters in Belarus for rest and training, I will then execute my decision” to welcome them.

On a related note, some Western intelligence officials said they believed that several thousand Wagner soldiers had taken up Lukashenko’s offer to go to Belarus instead of joining the regular Russian armed forces.

Lukashenko had previously praised Wagner’s potential benefits for the Belarusian army in a speech he gave to his generals last week.

He said that Wagner could share its battlefield experience with the Belarusian army and described Wagner as “the best unit for training the army,” according to the Financial Times.

 

Threat Warning

Poland’s top security official said that the presence of Wagner in neighboring Belarus posed a serious security threat to Central and Eastern Europe and could trigger a new migration crisis.

Jacek Siewiera, the head of the National Security Office in Poland, said that Wagner fighters who relocated to Belarus after a failed coup attempt in Russia had access to migrants from Africa and the Middle East, where the group has been involved in various conflicts and criminal activities.

He said that the mercenaries could use the migrants as a tool to destabilize Poland and its allies, Lithuania and Latvia, which share borders with Belarus.

He also warned of the possibility of an asymmetric attack on the border regions. “We have to assess the danger to Poland in connection with the number of Wagner mercenaries who are staying in Minsk,” Siewiera told reporters in Kyiv, where he met with his Ukrainian counterpart.

“We have to take into account all the assets that Wagner has in Africa and the Middle East and the risk of increasing forced migration and an asymmetric attack on Poland’s borders with Lithuania and Latvia.”

Poland and the Baltic States have already announced plans to reinforce their border forces after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Wagner and a close ally of President Vladimir Putin of Russia.

Under the agreement, Prigozhin agreed to leave Russia and travel to Minsk with any fighters who chose to follow him instead of joining the Russian army in exchange for amnesty.

The deal added an unexpected element of instability and potential security threat to the region, as Prigozhin’s forces, many of whom are hardened criminals recruited from Russian prisons, are notorious for human trafficking and other illicit activities.

Poland fears a repeat of what happened in 2021 when the European Union accused Lukashenko of waging a hybrid war by luring tens of thousands of migrants on direct flights from countries such as Iraq and facilitating their attempts to cross the border into the bloc.

EU officials said at the time that the surge in migration was orchestrated by Lukashenko in retaliation for Western support for the exiled opposition in Belarus and sanctions imposed on Minsk.

 

Alertness and Readiness

Belarus faces accusations from the West of using migrants as a political weapon; in light of this, Poland has seen reinforcement of its border defenses with a new fence and additional police officers.

The move comes amid reports of Russian mercenaries arriving in Belarus, raising fears of a possible military escalation in the region.

Last year, Poland built a barrier along part of its 260-mile border with Belarus, which it calls a preventive wall, to deter migrants from crossing into its territory.

Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski announced on Twitter that he had ordered 500 more police officers to join the border patrol, bringing the total number of security personnel there to 7,000.

He wrote: “Due to the tense situation on the border with Belarus, we decided to reinforce our forces and deploy 500 Polish police officers from two units of prevention and counter-terrorism.”

He added: “They will join five thousand members of the Border Guard forces and two thousand soldiers guarding the security of this border.”

The border situation has also alarmed Ukraine, which shares a 660-mile border with Belarus and has been locked in a conflict with Russia-backed separatists since 2014.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that NATO must send a clear message to Belarus and Russia that any aggression against Poland or Lithuania, both NATO members, would be met with a strong response.

He said: “NATO must unanimously tell the Polish and Lithuanian communities that if a Wagner element steps foot on Lithuanian or Polish soil, all Wagner elements will be eliminated wherever they are found.”

He also said that the upcoming summit of the alliance hosted by the Lithuanian capital Vilnius on July 11 is an “excellent platform for passing a message like this.”