Direct Impact: This Is How the Gaza War Shook the British Elections

The Gaza war was strongly present in the recent UK local elections, as it punished the ruling Conservative Party, and sent strongly worded messages to the Labour Party because of its stance on the Israeli aggression against the besieged Palestinian Strip.

The recent elections in the United Kingdom also cast doubt on the political future of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, as the ruling Conservative Party recorded its worst performance in several decades.

Perhaps the massive defeat suffered by the Conservatives in the by-elections in Blackpool South by 26 points in favor of the Labour Party is considered ample evidence of this.

Polls showed that a growing number of people who voted Conservative in 2019 are now inclined to vote for the Reform Party, a new right-wing group that has strongly backed Brexit, rather than Labour.

The Reform Party, which criticizes the Conservatives for not keeping its Brexit promises, particularly attracted voters in the areas where it contested the election.

Although many expect Labour to win the next UK general election by a large margin, its performance has not been as expected in some areas.

In contrast, independent candidates, who focused on issues such as the Israeli war on Gaza, achieved surprise wins in towns that usually support Labour, like Oldham in northwest England.

Rishi Sunak admitted the Conservatives may not win the general election after grim defeats in the recent local elections, claiming the UK was on course for a hung parliament.

Worrying Indicators

The Labour, which won a new seat in Parliament and dozens of other seats in the local elections, urged Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to call for general elections now and not in the second half of this year.

The Labour's victory confirms the weakness of the stance of the Conservatives, who have been in power for 14 years in the UK, a few months before the general elections.

The results revealed two important things. The first is that the polls that predicted a catastrophic defeat for the Conservatives are correct, in addition, Labour's control of Downing Street is imminent.

The second thing is that the Muslim voice played an important role in the Labour's victory and the overthrow of the conservatives, despite the anger of Islamic circles at the Labour Party leader's support for the Israeli war on Gaza since October 7, 2023.

This was especially evident in the re-election of the Muslim Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, in addition to the fact that other parties and independents received many votes from angry Muslims, both Labour and conservatives, for supporting the genocide of Gaza.

The results showed that the Labour won 186 seats and the presidency of 8 additional local councils, while the Conservatives lost about 474 seats and at least 10 local councils.

Thus, the Labour Party's balance of councils controlled by it became 49, while the Conservative Party's balance stabilized at only 6.

The Labour was able to regain the parliamentary constituency of Blackpool South in northwest England, which had witnessed the resignation of Conservative MP Scott Benton earlier due to a case related to exerting pressure.

Blackpool South is one of the key red wall constituencies that the Conservatives won easily in 2019.

"Blackpool voters have sent a direct message to Rishi Sunak: We are fed up with your decline, your chaos, your division and we want change," Keir Starmer said after visiting Blackpool to congratulate Labour's Chris Webb on his success.

"People no longer trust the Conservatives. Prime Minister: do the decent thing, admit you've failed and call a general election," MP Webb said.

In a worrying indicator also for Sunak, the Conservatives in Blackpool only had a narrow lead over the Reform Party, which was founded by the supporter of Britain's exit from the European Union, Nigel Farage, which threatens to deprive the Conservatives of decisive votes in the general elections.

With the setback in Blackpool South, the Conservatives have lost 11 by-elections since the general elections in December 2019, the worst result for any British government since the 1960s.

The Conservatives suffered 7 of these defeats during the era of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has been in power since October 2022, succeeding Liz Truss, whose term lasted less than two months.

The significant gains achieved by the Labour Party enhance the chances of its leader, assuming the presidency of the British government after the legislative elections scheduled to be held later this year.

Sunak admitted that the election was disappointing for his party, but defended his policies, especially those related to his plan to deport migrants to Rwanda and cut taxes.

He also pointed out that Labour did not win in the areas they said they would win to obtain a majority following the next general elections, stressing that only the Conservatives have a plan for the country.

In an indication of the current Prime Minister's unpopularity, Labour won the local elections in North Yorkshire, where Rishi Sunak's electoral district is.

Protest Vote

The results of the recent UK local elections carried messages that also caused concern for Labour, especially the anger of Muslim voters over the party's stance on the Gaza war.

Although it won 185 seats, the Labour lost Oldham in Manchester, which the party had controlled for 13 years and which includes a large Muslim population, especially after the town witnessed the resignation of several former Labour councilors from the party amid dissatisfaction with Starmer's stance on the Gaza war.

In Bolton, the Labour lost its majority in the council to the Greens and independents, while it lost one seat in Sheffield.

Prominent Labour officials also admitted the direct impact of the stance on the war on the results in some local constituencies, and on their electoral chances in the upcoming general elections.

However, another lawmaker said he saw it as a protest vote that would not necessarily be repeated in the next general election.

In turn, Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting said that the party had received the voters' message, and that it understood their stances.

Political Scene

Despite all the interesting events and unprecedented results brought about by the results of the recent UK local elections, they did not give a complete picture of the political scene.

There are still important details, most notably that the Conservatives lost not only to Labour, but also to the Liberal Democrats.

Two of the 10 municipalities that the Conservatives lost in councils and their seats went to the Liberal Democrats, which raised its tally of municipalities to 12. The Liberal Democrats also won 522 seats, an increase of 104.

Independent candidates also attracted attention by winning 93 seats, especially after voters refrained from choosing the Labour due to its pro-"Israel" stance and the resignation of several former Labour councilors.

In contrast, the share of the Greens, which called for an immediate ceasefire a week after the start of the aggression on Gaza, increased.

Although it failed to control any council, the party won 74 new seats, raising its total tally of municipal seats to 179.

In turn, Green Party councilor Mothin Ali, winner of the local elections in the Gipton and Harehills ward in Leeds with 3,070 votes, declared that his election was a victory for the people of Gaza.

In Walsall, Naheed Zohra Gultasibhas celebrated by stating after her win: "This is for Gaza, this is for Palestine." 

Akhmed Yakoob of West Midlands secured approximately 20% of votes in his constituency on a pro-Palestinian platform as well.

While celebrating their wins, the victorious candidates made clear their intention to amplify Palestinian voices and advocated for the Palestinian cause from their newly elected stances on local councils.

In turn, political analyst Ahmed Karri explained in a statement to Al-Estiklal that "the events that took place in the Palestinian Gaza Strip led to an electoral earthquake and unprecedented results in municipal councils and mayors throughout the UK.

"If conditions were normal, the Labour would have achieved a landslide victory in light of the decline in the Conservative Party's results, but the anger of Muslims and Palestine supporters at the party leadership's stance on Gaza made a significant percentage of the votes go to the independents, the Greens, and Liberal Democrats," he added.

Mr. Karri also pointed out that "Labour's leadership, despite its celebration of its great victory in winning nine mayors out of ten and achieving first place in the number of councilors, admitted that the message of the Gaza supporters had been received and that it was considering it."

He concluded, "The current data indicate that the Labour will not obtain an absolute majority in the general elections unless it regains its Muslim voters. Therefore, we will mostly see a change in the party's discourse on Palestine in the coming days."