Aoun Elected as Lebanon's President Amid Hezbollah Decline

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After a two-year presidential vacuum that deepened Lebanon's successive crises, the deadlock was broken with the election of Army Commander Joseph Aoun as president, backed notably by Saudi Arabia and the United States.

The resolution of the presidential crisis came after a series of diplomatic shuttles by U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein and behind-the-scenes Saudi arrangements, capitalizing on the diminished influence of Hezbollah domestically following its weakened position and leadership loss after its involvement in supporting Gaza in its confrontation with “Israel.”

The election occurred just two weeks after a meeting between Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman and Aoun on December 26, 2024, ahead of his election as president.

The term of Lebanon’s last president, Michel Aoun, ended on October 31, 2022, and since then, Lebanon’s political factions failed to reach an agreement on a new president, despite 12 parliamentary sessions convened to address the issue.

Overturning the Constitution

To elect a new president, a candidate must secure two-thirds of the parliamentary votes (86 out of 128) in the first round, without any constitutional amendments, which Army Commander Joseph Aoun failed to achieve in the first round, receiving only 71 votes.

However, in the second round, which required a simple majority (65 votes), Aoun won 99 votes out of 128, becoming the fifth military commander in Lebanon’s history to ascend to the presidency, and the fourth in a row.

Before his election, a constitutional crisis emerged. According to the Lebanese constitution, Article 49 prohibits senior civil servants, such as the army commander, from running for president. 

Additionally, the election law stipulates that military personnel must wait six months after leaving service before they can stand for any political office.

When Lebanon’s constitution was amended in 1989 under the Taif Agreement, the revisions mandated that senior officials must resign six months prior to their candidacy, enabling the parliament to elect them.

Yet, the post-Taif Republic saw the election of four presidents who were army commanders at the time of their election, with Joseph Aoun becoming the fifth.

The first instance was in 1958, when Lebanese citizens turned to Army Commander Fouad Chehab as a solution to the civil strife caused by President Camille Chamoun’s attempt to extend his term, and he was elected to the presidency.

The second occurred in 1998, when Army Commander Emile Lahoud was elected president, followed by Army Commander Michel Suleiman in 2008, and in 2016, Michel Aoun, another military commander, was elected.

Due to this precedent of army commanders assuming the presidency, parliamentarians called for the same exception, proposing a constitutional amendment (Article 49) specifically for the new president’s election.

Others suggested that parliament could invoke Article 74 of the constitution to bypass amending Article 49, arguing that the electoral circumstances were "exceptional" due to the vacant presidency and the need to hold elections within two months of the vacancy, as per this article.

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Hezbollah’s Retreat

After Hezbollah assessed the new political realities shaped by its involvement in supporting Gaza, it began to distance itself from its own Maronite presidential candidate and accepted the election of Army Commander Joseph Aoun as president.

In a statement on January 6, Hezbollah’s Coordination and Liaison Unit Chief, Wafiq Safa, confirmed this shift, saying, "We have no veto on the army commander, the only veto we have is on Samir Geagea (leader of the Lebanese Forces), because he is a project of ‘fitna’ (sedition) and destruction for the country."

However, analysts told Reuters and the Wall Street Journal on January 9 that the election of the army commander as president signals “Hezbollah’s Waning Influence” and “showing weakened Hezbollah.

The army commander’s election followed the withdrawal of Hezbollah’s original presidential candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, and the party’s announcement of its support for Aoun.

Before the Gaza war, Hezbollah had insisted on a Maronite candidate in its favor. 

Initially, it backed Gibran Bassil, who was rejected by other Maronite factions, and then turned to Frangieh, a close ally of Syria’s ousted president, Bashar al-Assad.

What stood out in Aoun’s inaugural speech was his commitment to "respecting the ceasefire" with “Israel” and ending its occupation of Lebanon, as well as asserting the state’s "right to monopolize the possession of arms."

"My mandate is to exercise my role as commander-in-chief of the armed forces to affirm the state’s right to monopolize the possession of arms," Aoun stated, implicitly signaling his support for the disarmament of Hezbollah.

For the first time in over 25 years, the Lebanese president’s inaugural speech did not include the word "resistance," a term that had long been used by previous presidents to emphasize the strength of the Lebanese state. 

Traditionally, the presidential speech referred to the "army, people, and resistance" triangle, which had been a source of internal controversy in Lebanon due to its formal acknowledgment of Hezbollah’s arms.

This time, however, President Aoun limited his statement to affirming "the state’s right to monopolize the possession of arms."

According to Hezbollah’s perspective, Lebanon’s government’s inability to confront the Israeli threat will once again highlight the need for the party to retain its weapons. 

It argues that calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah, not just in southern Lebanon but across the entire country, as outlined in UN Resolution 1701, would jeopardize the state's security.

Given that Aoun’s election did not align with Hezbollah’s interests and was backed by both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, party loyalists have warned him against repeating the experience of former president Amin Gemayel, where U.S. support for imposing control over the south led to a narrowing of Hezbollah’s influence.

This came amid the launch of an online campaign by Hezbollah, which took to social media platforms to issue explicit threats against its opponents and critics, even hinting at the possibility of revisiting the violent events of "May 7" in Beirut in 2008.

The tone of the threats escalated through media figures and politicians aligned with the party, who warned adversaries of "disciplinary action."

The May 7 events are considered the most violent and dangerous since the end of Lebanon's civil war in 1990. 

The attacks were carried out by armed groups affiliated with Hezbollah, “Amal Movement,” and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party.

These actions followed two decrees issued by the Lebanese Cabinet, which included the confiscation of Hezbollah's telecommunications network and the dismissal of Brigadier General Wafiq Shuqair, the head of security at Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport, who was close to the party.

Shifting Lebanese Power

For the first time, Lebanese MPs raised their voices during the presidential election session, declaring that "there is no Iranian or Syrian tutelage over Lebanon," a reference to Hezbollah's declining influence.

However, other voices warned, "We do not want to move from one tutelage to another," alluding to the clear roles played by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in the election of the new president.

On the eve of the Lebanese parliamentary session to elect a new president, U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut on January 7, 2025, under the guise of monitoring the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and “Israel,” which was ratified on November 27, 2024.

However, Hochstein became involved in the presidential election process, meeting with Lebanese Army Chief Joseph Aoun—who was soon to be inaugurated as president—along with a U.S. delegation that included Ambassador Lisa Johnson and General Jasper Jeffers, head of the supervisory committee.

Hochstein's visit to Lebanon followed a stop in Riyadh, where he held talks with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al Saud, signaling clear coordination between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. in selecting the new president, taking advantage of Hezbollah's waning influence.

Additionally, meetings between Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman and Aoun, as well as Saudi envoy Prince Yazid bin Farhan’s discussions with Lebanese political figures, highlighted Saudi Arabia's pivotal role in shaping Lebanese consensus around Aoun.

This suggests a return of Saudi influence in Lebanon after a long absence, which had allowed Iran and its ally Hezbollah to dominate Lebanese internal affairs.

A source close to the Saudi royal court told Reuters on January 9 that French, Saudi, and U.S. envoys informed Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, a close ally of Hezbollah, that "international and Gulf financial aid depends on the election of Aoun."

Thorny Issues

Due to the shift in Lebanon's political landscape in favor of Hezbollah’s opponents, thorny issues are expected to arise between the party and political forces, clashing with the new president, who has hinted at disarming Hezbollah with U.S., Israeli, and Saudi support.

Following the collapse of the Syrian regime, once a key pillar for Hezbollah’s regional backers, and Iran’s withdrawal from the region, combined with the weakening of the party due to its involvement in Gaza, demands for disarming Hezbollah are expected to intensify.

The ceasefire agreement between the Lebanese government and “Israel” is also seen as a means to push this agenda, as “Israel” and the U.S. insist that the ceasefire condition mandates the dismantling of Hezbollah's military presence up to the Litani River and the disarming of the group.

President Aoun’s statement—"We will disarm all parties... and weapons will be exclusive to the Lebanese army"—signals a contentious and explosive issue, particularly if Hezbollah turns its weapons inward and withdraws from the south.

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As Lebanon grapples with deep economic crises, alongside profound shifts in the political balance of power, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are expected to leverage the issue of disarmament to pressure the new president, tying foreign aid to the disarming of Hezbollah.

Given that the election of the army chief, a candidate not favored by Hezbollah, serves “Israel's” interests, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar warmly welcomed and congratulated him on his election.

Hilal Khashan, a professor at the American University of Beirut, told The Guardian on January 9, "Hezbollah today is not what it used to be two years ago … I think that the army will be able to confront Hezbollah, but neither side is interested in confrontation."

The new president and the government he forms will face major challenges, chief among them the reconstruction of areas in the south, east, and southern suburbs of Beirut, devastated in the last war.

The ceasefire agreement, which stipulates “Israel’s” withdrawal from the areas it entered in the south, also includes adherence to UN Security Council Resolution 1701 of 2006, which calls for Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the border and the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, leaving weapons only in the hands of legitimate forces.

Other pressing challenges include implementing urgent reforms to revive the economy after more than five years of unprecedented collapse.