Amid Setbacks and Pressures: Is Humza Yousaf's Leadership of the Scottish Government in Peril?

Scotland's leader, Humza Yousaf, faces a battle over his political future after he ended his three-year power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Green Party following a row over climate change and gender identity.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) leader's decision to scrap the coalition with the Greens with immediate effect has sparked a chain of events that could see him lose his top job next week, and even lead to a snap election.

In turn, Yousaf, who became the first Muslim leader of a government in Western Europe when he took office from Nicola Sturgeon in March 2023, denied that he had turned into a lame duck after ending the government coalition.

"No great loss," was Yousaf's verdict on Ash Regan's defection. Yet, six months on, and with the numbers stacked evenly for and against the first minister, his future lies in her hands. 

No-Confidence

Scotland's First Minister Humza Yousaf recently announced that he would not resign, and confirmed his ability to win the upcoming vote of no confidence.

On April 25, Yousaf canceled the power-sharing agreement with the Greens, a week after the devolved government abandoned an ambitious climate pledge about key climate goals and a temporary moratorium on prescribing puberty blockers to those under the age of 18, which led to sharp statements from the party that supported the Scottish government led by the SNP for three years.

The Scottish Conservatives said they would lodge a vote of no confidence in the first minister, while the Scottish Labour Party said it wants to lodge a no-confidence vote in the entire government, in an attempt to secure early Holyrood elections.

Although the Conservatives' first vote is non-binding, losing the ballot could make Yousaf's position untenable.

Of greater significance would be a vote of no-confidence in the government, which would force both the first minister and his ministers to resign.

In that case, Parliament would have 28 days to choose a new first minister by a simple majority, but if it failed to do so it would be dissolved.

This represents the latest setback for the SNP, which has been rocked by internal disputes, resignations, fraud allegations, and a decline in support.

Humza Yousaf said in press statements that he has every intention of winning the vote of no confidence, accusing the opposition parties of playing games.

He noted that the opposition must act in good faith in order to make the minority government work in the interests of the people of Scotland.

Yousaf said he would write to all leaders of political parties and caucus groups represented in the Scottish Parliament, including Green Party leaders, asking them to meet him as soon as possible.

It is noteworthy that the Boot House agreement was reached in 2021 after the SNP, led by former leader Nicola Sturgeon, failed to obtain an absolute majority in the Holyrood elections.

Despite the tension, SNP figures said Yousaf's decision had actually created a more united spirit within the party, allowing him to outline a more moderate set of policies to broaden his appeal to voters ahead of this year's UK general election.

Political Pressures

If all opposition lawmakers, including the Greens, vote in favor of a no-confidence vote, Yousaf will be under enormous pressure to resign, which could pave the way towards a snap election — the next Scottish parliamentary election is not due until 2026.

Of the 129 seats in Parliament, the SNP holds 63 seats, two fewer than the majority.

While the Conservatives have 31 seats, the Labour Party has 22 seats, the Greens have 7 seats, the Liberal Democrats have 4 seats, and the ALBA Party has one seat.

There is also one female leader, Alison Johnston, who is a member of the House of Commons and the equivalent of the Speaker of the House of Commons in Scotland.

With these repercussions, Yousef's future as first minister is at stake before the vote on the no-confidence next week. Now, as leader of a minority government, his political fate may hang in the balance with just one vote.

With the Conservatives, the Labour, the Greens, and Liberal Democrats all expressing their lack of confidence in Yousaf, he will need the support of Ash Regan — a former rival of Yousaf during the recent election race within the SNP — to cling to the position of first minister.

It is noteworthy that Regan defected from the SNP last year and later joined the ALBA party led by Alex Salmond, claiming that her previous party had focused on independence.

She recently told members that she was carefully considering her position and wrote to Yousaf to offer him an early opportunity to discuss her priorities — Scottish independence, the dignity, safety, and rights of women and children, and providing competent government.

Regan's backing would result in the government having 64 votes at least. In the event of a tie, the chamber's presiding officer — Scotland's equivalent to the speaker — would be expected to vote in favor of the status quo.

In turn, Scottish Labour Party leader Anas Sarwar said in a statement: "It would be unacceptable for the SNP to assume that it can impose another unelected first minister on Scotland."

He added: "This chaotic and incompetent government is collapsing while Scots pay the price. An election is needed to give Scotland a fresh start."

Scottish Conservative Party leader Douglas Ross also described Yousaf as a failed, weak First Minister who is unfit for the position.

In contrast, Kate Forbes, Yousaf's main rival for the SNP leadership last year, said she would support him in a no-confidence vote, insisting he could win.

Failed Policies

Recently, relations between the SNP and the Greens have become very strained, even though they support Scottish independence from the United Kingdom.

The collapse of the agreement comes after the Scottish government announced on April 18 that it would scrap its target of cutting carbon emissions by 75% by 2030.

Last month, the UK Climate Change Committee strongly criticized Scotland for repeatedly failing to meet its climate targets.

Yousaf pledged that Scotland would continue to meet its target of net-zero emissions by 2045.

Scottish Green party co-leader Lorna Slater described Yousaf's decision to cancel the coalition agreement as an act of political cowardice by the SNP, which is selling out future generations to appease the most reactionary forces in the country.

She said the SNP had repeatedly let down the Green Party's attempts to introduce a fairer and greener Scotland, including in policies on oil and gas and the country's 2030 emissions reduction targets.

"We no longer have confidence that a progressive government in Scotland is doing the right thing on climate and nature," Slater added.

She called on SNP members who care about climate, gender identity, and independence to consider jumping to her party.

Earlier, several prominent figures in the SNP, such as former leadership candidate Kate Forbes and Holyrood stalwart Fergus Ewing, called for ending the coalition with the Greens.

However, Yousaf was the only candidate in the SNP leadership contest who supported the continuation of the deal, describing it as worth its weight in gold.

It is noteworthy that the coalition was already heading towards an existential crisis due to the failure of Green Party co-leader Patrick Harvie to accept the Cass Review, which questioned some medical practices related to gender identity services for children.

SNP MPs, who had earlier rebelled against the government, welcomed Yousaf's new direction.

Ewing described the Greens as extremists who promoted failed policies, such as gender reform and heat pump delusions, that alienated large swaths of the population.

Over the past period, Holyrood politics have been overshadowed by ongoing police investigations into the SNP's finances.

Last week, Peter Murrell, husband of former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, was charged with embezzling £600,000 in donations earmarked for the Scottish independence campaign from the UK.

The court charged Murrell (59 years old), the former chief executive of the ruling pro-independence SNP, more than a year after his first arrest.

As for Sturgeon, who resigned from her position in February 2023, she was arrested in June 2023 but was later released without any charges being brought against her.

It is noteworthy that the current SNP leader, Humza Yousaf, had pledged to continue pushing for Scottish independence during the upcoming general elections in the UK.

He said that the SNP would demand a mandate for independence negotiations with the British government if it wins at least 29 of the 57 seats that will be contested in Scotland.

Polls show that the SNP, which has dominated politics in Scotland since 2007, faces stiff opposition from Labour.

Earlier this month, a YouGov poll put the main British opposition Labour slightly ahead of the SNP in Scotland for the first time since Scottish voters chose to remain part of the UK in a 2014 independence referendum.

Any swing towards Labour, which opposes independence, in a fresh election in Scotland could further damage nationalist hopes of another referendum.

The SNP overwhelmingly dominates Scotland's representation in the British Parliament in Westminster (43 out of 59 MPs), while its poll slide in favor of Labour could have a major impact on the outcome of a UK-wide general election expected this year.