After Wagner’s Rebellion in Russia, How Does the Belarusian Army Benefit from the Mercenaries’ Expertise?

Although the details behind the moving of the Russian private military company “Wagner Group” leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to Belarus after his rebellion against the official army command on June 23, 2023, remain obscure, Minsk is attempting to send signals to keep the reputation of Wagner Group shining.

In an unexpected move, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, in a speech delivered on June 30, 2023, on the occasion of the country’s Independence Day, invited the Wagner Group to train his army, as reported by the official news agency BELTA.

Lukashenko stated, “Unfortunately, the Wagner Group is not here, but if their trainers come, as I have already told them, and they bring us their combat experience, we will accept this opportunity.”

He further added, “He [Lukashenko] is not afraid of Wagner Group members because he has known them for a long time…They are people who have fought all over the world to establish civilization, and the West hates them to the core.”

The Belarusian President also mentioned, “We haven’t built any camps yet. But if they want, we will accommodate them, please set up tents. But they are currently in their camps in Luhansk,” adding that the Wagner forces were offered some abandoned lands within Belarus in case they need them.

 

Wagner Rebellion

The relationship between Lukashenko and Prigozhin appears to be highly strong, as demonstrated when the Belarusian President warned the Wagner Group leader during the recent rebellion that his forces would be destroyed if they continued their march toward the Russian capital, Moscow.

In fact, Lukashenko even told Prigozhin (62 years old) during a phone call on June 27, according to Belarusian state media: “In the middle of the road, you will be crushed like an insect.”

Lukashenko (68 years old) has been ruling Belarus since 1994 but faces a wave of popular anger due to the economic problems and his human rights record, as he portrays himself as a guarantor of stability in the country.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in a televised speech on June 26, 2023, that he would fulfill his promise to allow Wagner fighters to move to Belarus if they wished, sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense, or return to their families.

The rebellion led by Prigozhin ended abruptly, despite Wagner’s announcement that they were only 350 kilometers south of the Russian capital, Moscow. This was following mediation by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who agreed to allow them to go into exile in Belarus.

According to the agreement, details of which were not fully disclosed to the media, Wagner fighters have the right to go to Belarus, join the regular Russian army, or return to civilian life, while Wagner is required to hand over its heavy weapons to the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The Russian Ministry of Defense, as an opponent of the Wagner Group, announced that preparations were underway to transfer heavy military equipment from Wagner to army units.

The Russian President, who considered Wagner’s rebellion as the first serious challenge to his continuous rule since 2000, also viewed the Wagner elements as “patriotic” and “liberators of homeland territories.”

However, Putin did not mention Prigozhin specifically in his speech but referred to the rebellion as a “march for justice.”

On June 23, 2023, Prigozhin called for an uprising against the Russian army, accusing them of killing a “massive” number of their members in shelling that targeted their rear positions in Ukraine, an accusation that Moscow denied.

Initially, Prigozhin was declared wanted by Russia on charges of “incitement to armed rebellion,” described by Putin as an act of “treason.”

During the 24-hour rebellion, Prigozhin promised to “liberate the Russian people,” directing his hostility toward Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov, whom he accused of sacrificing thousands of soldiers in Ukraine.

At first, Putin pledged to crush the rebellion, comparing it to the chaos that occurred in 1917, which led to the Bolshevik Revolution and then a civil war.

 

Continuity of Services

Notably and immediately after announcing the end of the rebellion following the mediation, Lukashenko stated that the Belarusian army could benefit from the “experience” of Wagner’s leaders while simultaneously downplaying the significance of the activities that the group would be allowed to undertake in Belarus.

Following the agreement, Prigozhin traveled from Russia to Belarus on June 27, 2023.

Wagner elements have been a major force in the invasion of Ukraine since February 24, 2022. Their leader, in an audio message released by his office at the start of the rebellion, stated that their fighter count reached 25,000.

However, it is unclear how many of them will settle in Belarus.

Thus, it seems that the aim of this action is to neutralize the Wagner Group, the private military organization that was previously tasked with carrying out operations ordered by the Kremlin in Ukraine, Russia, Syria, and several African countries.

Previously, Russian authorities denied any connection with the Wagner Group. However, in a televised speech on June 27, Putin acknowledged that the state had fully funded this private army and had provided Wagner with approximately one billion euros in 2022.

For many analysts, the rebellion of the Wagner Group highlighted weaknesses in Putin’s regime and his army’s ability to confront heavily armed men who seized military sites, covered hundreds of kilometers, and advanced toward Moscow in a single day until Prigozhin unexpectedly ordered them to halt and retreat.

In this context, Sudanese security and strategic analyst Dr. Amin Ismail suggested that Lukashenko’s invitation for the Wagner Group to train his country’s army could be seen as the group operating as a private security services company.

It appears that the exclusion of Wagner from the war in Ukraine was done in agreement with Russia, allowing the remaining Wagner groups to be brought into Belarus and thus operate under its control.

Ismail stated: “This is in line with attempts to withdraw Wagner groups present in sub-Saharan African countries and relocate them to a similar country to Belarus or to Belarus itself.”

The expert further emphasized that Belarus’s current utilization of Wagner and its integration into its army is not a viable long-term solution. Instead, it appears to be a temporary measure aimed at resolving the conflict and rebellion that the group initiated against the Russian army.

 

New Approaches

Former Syrian chemical warfare specialist Tarek Haj Bakri explained that the majority of Wagner mercenaries are retired Russian army personnel and regular army members from their respective countries.

This indicates that they have undergone good training, and some of them are volunteers who have fought in various regions worldwide, including Ukraine, Syria, Africa, and Latin America.

Haj Bakri added that Wagner possesses significant military expertise, including combat operations and the use of various types of weapons, as their military training incorporates both Western and Eastern techniques.

He further stated, “This means that Belarus or any other country in the world can benefit from their expertise in training their own forces, especially considering that Belarus, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, became weak with a small army and poor equipment. This implies that they are in need of significant expertise to enhance their military capabilities.”

Haj Bakri asserted, “The Wagner forces did not originate solely in Russia but faced pressure to rebel, and as a result, they were defeated by a powerful state like Russia. Hence, their elements can potentially spread worldwide unless they are held accountable for war crimes. However, they still retain their combat experience, which could be utilized by countries, particularly dictatorial regimes with absolute rule.”

In turn, Iraqi security and military expert Sarmad al-Byate believes that “the Belarusian army is a regular army that has been trained by former Soviet Union countries. Therefore, it is expected to have a portion of the Russian army’s heritage and training. However, the rebellion of Wagner is ambiguous and seems theatrical, even in its journey to Russia.”

Al-Byate questioned, “In this case, for what is Wagner training the Belarusian army? Especially since the majority are mercenaries. This means that such calls made by the Belarusian President cannot be relied upon, as the majority of military manuals are primarily Russian from the former Soviet Union.”

He added, “Unless Belarus needs new warfare tactics and guerrilla warfare methods, as Wagner is not a group for regular combat.

“Considering this, the idea of using Wagner to train the Belarusian army seems illogical unless there are hidden intentions or an attempt to elevate Wagner’s status following its rebellion in Russia. Therefore, it falls within the framework of a political process that allows for various interpretations and explanations, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine.”