After the Coup, an Italian Newspaper Warns of a Possible Civil War In Myanmar

An Italian newspaper confirmed that the situation in Myanmar is getting more complicated, following the outbreak of numerous clashes in some areas of the country between the army, which carried out an armed coup in early February 2021, and armed ethnic groups.

Il Caffé Geopolitico said that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) "has not yet been able to achieve results that help to reduce tensions in the country, despite its meeting with the coup leaders at the emergency meeting held in April 2021."

It is about to Collapse

The newspaper stressed that after 120 days of the coup, the situation in Myanmar may turn into a military conflict that could cause a large-scale civil war, with 845 civilians killed and more than 5,600 arrested, while there are at least 1,900 people currently being inspected by the armed forces for their participation in demonstrations against the coup.

It stated that in addition to concerns about the safety of civilians, the country is complaining of a critical health and difficult economic situations that may cause its collapse.

 It explains that it has become difficult to monitor the trend of the epidemiological situation in the country, while the vaccination campaign is not very active, vaccinating approximately 50,000 doses per day, while the total number of doses used reached 3 million, which is equivalent to the vaccination rate of 2.8 percent of the population.

Economically, the newspaper pointed out that the coup caused significant effects in addition to the repercussions of the outbreak of the pandemic. This was a wake-up-call, especially, when about 48 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, compared to 24.8 percent in 2017, according to the United Nations Development Program.

It  added that the banking system is under pressure and faces many problems, such as the lack of liquidity in banks, which forces residents to stand in queues since the early morning to take their money before it runs out.

Although the State Administration Council (the Military Council) has authorized, on April 28, 2021, the possibility of making payments via the Internet, problems still exist, because Internet services in the country are often cut off by the Military Council, so that the demonstrators are not allowed to use social networks to organize demonstrations.

The newspaper indicated that controlling the Internet is an essential means for the Military Council, which in recent days has included more than 1,200 websites, like "Facebook" and "Twitter", in the blacklist.

It added that the humanitarian crisis continues with the displacement of nearly 250,000 people who have fled the army's repression.

For their part, NGOs complained about the impossibility of establishing safe humanitarian corridors to deliver foodstuffs and basic necessities because the army prevented aid from reaching the displaced.

Winds Of Civil War

The newspaper stated that in some areas of the country, ethnic armed groups sided with the opposition government of national unity announced to be formed on April 16, 2021 as the only legal representative of the people, and it consists of some parliamentarians from the ruling party, the National League for Democracy, and representatives of various Burmese ethnic groups. . 

In some areas, there were numerous clashes between ethnic rebel groups, such as the Myanmar National Democratic Army, which had united against the army, specifically in Shan State.

In April 2021, the coalition of these armed groups continued the attacks against the army after calling for a ceasefire, resulting in 11 deaths in recent days.

While young people in Karen, Chin and Kachin states form small teams, consisting of dozens of people, to confront the army.

Thanks to the alliances formed in the villages, the situation has turned into a real low-intensity conflict between the army forces, the best equipment, and the armed groups that seek to weaken the army’s forces, to get them out of the conflict areas.

Several media outlets indicated that armed groups in these areas are recruiting many Burmese youths who do not intend to surrender to the army of General Min Aung Hlaing and who are ready to sacrifice their life to liberate the country from the tyranny of the army, according to the Italian newspaper.

Mediation Efforts

Meanwhile, the newspaper said that concern about the fate of leader Aung San Suu Kyi is increasing, after she reappeared in public on May 24, 2021, for the first time after her ouster; to attend a court hearing against her. During this brief appearance, Suu kyi was able to speak for the first time with her lawyer and with former President Win Myint, who is also accused of many crimes. Recently, it was announced that Suu kyi and the former president had been moved to a secret location, so her supporters are concerned and demand the intervention of the international community.

The newspaper considered that the international community, especially the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, failed to intervene to reduce the escalation, and internal divisions emerged that confirmed the dominance of the economy over the political affairs of its members.

 It indicated that the points stipulated in the agreement with the Tatmadaw General during the emergency meeting on April 24, especially those related to conducting a constructive dialogue between the parties to the conflict and stopping the violence, were not respected.

There was no improvement concerning the situation, and the army continued to use violent and repressive methods against the demonstrators, which resulted in 100 civilian deaths since the meeting.

The newspaper continued by saying: "The military council obstructed the entry of humanitarian aid stipulated in the fourth point of the agreement into the country and seized the shipments destined for more than 150,000 displaced people who fled the areas controlled by force."

ASEAN has not yet appointed its own envoy, who will be tasked with mediating a constructive dialogue between the military council and members of the Government of National Unity.

It remains uncertain that an ASEAN delegation consisting of Chairman Eriwan Yusuf and Secretary-General Lim Guk Hui will meet with junta leaders in the coming days given that army chiefs had hinted that the meeting could be postponed in case of timing and security issues.

The newspaper concluded its report by saying: "While the relevant actors take a great deal of time in their movements, the residents' patience has run out, given that they have been living for four months in critical health, economic and humanitarian conditions."