A Raging Political Division in the US Midterm Elections Over Conflicting Agendas

Four weeks until the midterm elections of the US Congress, which takes place every two years. The midterms are essentially a referendum on the first two years of the term of any US president. American presidents have rarely been able to evade this "punitive" vote, with their opponents being able to spot weaknesses in their performance and invest them in these elections.

The New York Times's chief political analyst Nate Cohn explained: "With President Biden's approval rating mired in the 30s and with nearly 80 percent of voters saying the country is heading in the wrong direction, all the ingredients seem to be in place for a Republican sweep in the November midterm elections.

He added: "But Democrats and Republicans begin the campaign in a surprisingly close race for control of Congress, according to the first New York Times Siena College survey of the cycle."

This race raged political division in the United States between Republicans and Democrats. While Republicans are trying to take advantage of President Joe Biden's low popularity, high inflation in the country, and linking a number of crises such as immigration and high crime to the Blue Party, Democrats focus on issues of concern to non-conservative, progressive, and colored segments, such as abortion, individual gun legalization, and rights gays.

 

Republicans' Bet

The battle appears fierce in crucial states, such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, knowing that this year's midterm elections will also constitute a measure for Trump, who has repeatedly indicated his desire to run for the presidency again.

The results of US opinion polls change quickly due to the close race. Americans will vote to renew all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and more than a third of the 100 seats, or 35 seats, in the Senate. Americans also elect some of their state's governors and a group of local officials, who decide their states' policies on abortion and environmental regulation, with the new electors beginning their term on January 3.

 

While Republicans are trying to take advantage of Biden's low popularity and high inflation, Democrats focus on abortion, individual gun legalization, and LGBTQ rights.

 

Democrats, since Biden won the presidency in the November 2020 elections, have controlled the House and Senate, but with a small majority in the House of Representatives (220 for Democrats versus 212 for Republicans with 3 vacancies since last September). The same thing happened in the Senate, with an additional vote for Democrats counted for vice president Kamala Harris.

The Democrats had managed to wrest the Senate from the Republicans in the 2020 elections. As for the House of Representatives, it was in the hands of the Republicans between 2011 and 2019, to be controlled by the Democrats since 2019, headed by Nancy Pelosi.

In an interview with Al-Estiklal, the political activist Khalida Bakkali said: "The Republican opposition, which is still hoping to restore the representatives and senators, was preparing itself for a sweeping victory over the Democrats in the elections for the two houses this year, after a series of failures of the democratic administration, including the humiliating American exit from Afghanistan, the disappointing management of Coronavirus crisis, and the high rate of inflation that exacerbated it."

Explosive crises remain in Biden's face. Such as the repercussions of the Russian war on Ukraine, in addition to internal issues, such as abortion and the crisis of irregular migrants at the borders.

 

Democrats' Agenda

Democrats regained their momentum after the US Supreme Court repealed landmark legislation (Roe v. Wade) last June, which has granted abortion rights to women in the United States since 1973, making the abortion issue the headlines of election campaigns for Blue Party candidates. In contrast, inflation and ways to combat it were the headlines of Republican campaigns.

They are also taking advantage of the sharp political division in the country, and the demands of Trump's audience, who still believes in the theory of corrupted elections in 2020, and those who ran for elections and have Trump's support, promise, if they win, to end the investigation into the storming of Congress in January 2021, and even Biden's trial.

Yet, the surveys conducted by NPR and PBS NewsHour, as well as Marist Poll, an opinion polling center, last September, showed that inflation ranks first on the list of issues that concern Americans.

30 percent of respondents said inflation is the first thing that comes to their mind when they think about how they will vote on November 8. However, according to these polls, the percentage decreased from last July, when it reached 37 percent of the respondents. Abortion ranked second, as 22 percent considered it first on their list of priorities, also down by 4 points from July.

On October 10, the Axios website shed light on the severity of the political division in the country, as the Index of the Americas monitored by the polling company Ipsos-Axios found that 4 out of 10 Republicans, and one in 4 Democrats, said they will blame electoral fraud if their party loses the election.

 

50-50 Chance

According to recent opinion polls by the Agence France-Presse (AFP), the Republicans have a good chance of winning at least 10 to 20 seats in the House of Representatives, which is enough to obtain a parliamentary majority. Polls are less clear about the Senate's fate.

The Republican minority leader in the Senate, Senator Mitch McConnell (who is not running for re-election this time), echoed this caution, saying in the last week of September that their party is in tight races and has a 50-50 chance of getting the Senate back.

As for the issue of abortion, which can affect the votes of women in rural areas, whose voices usually swing between Democrats and Republicans, McConnell listed the basic issues that his party will focus on during the campaigns, namely inflation, crime, and open borders.

Voters in Republican-controlled Texas over the summer unexpectedly voted against a constitutional amendment that would have allowed state lawmakers to trigger abortion restrictions, the first referendum since the Supreme Court ruling on abortion.