A New Security Agreement Between Washington and Manama: Could It Set the Tone for the Rest of the Gulf States?
The United States and Bahrain signed a security agreement, aligning with Washington's efforts to foster renewed relationships in the Gulf region. The deal marks a significant strategic announcement in the Middle East. While it ensures Washington's support for Manama in the event of a foreign attack, it also sets a precedent for other Gulf Arab nations.
On September 13, 2023, the United States signed a security deal with Bahrain at the U.S. Department of State in Washington to strengthen the defense and economic ties between the two countries.
Comprehensive Security Integration
The treaty, Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement, aims to enhance scientific exchange, investment opportunities, and cooperation in renewable energy.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, ahead of the signing ceremony with Bahrain's Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, stated that the agreement would enable them to better identify and respond to threats as they arise.
The U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet has a base in Bahrain, which has strained its relations with neighboring Iran. However, this agreement will strengthen ties between Washington and Manama on both a symbolic and practical level by enhancing cooperation, particularly through the exchange of intelligence information.
Blinken added that the essence of the agreement is a common goal, working together to build a safer, more prosperous, and more globally connected region.
Described by Blinken as a first-of-its-kind arrangement, the deal commits both countries to work together on trusted technologies, indicating a commitment to avoiding providers, often Chinese, deemed to have insecure services.
Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa emphasized that the agreement will focus not only on security and defense, which are fundamental, but also on the economy, the people, and technology, which will form the basis for a new global framework.
U.S. officials have described the agreement as legally binding, but it does not encompass Article 5 related to collective defense, which is part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
The White House considers this agreement as a way to formalize the steps taken by the U.S. Central Command to integrate air and missile defense systems in the region and enhance maritime domain awareness, as indicated in a White House fact sheet.
The Significance of Bahrain
In 2011, former U.S. President Barack Obama imposed an arms ban on Bahrain, which was lifted during the tenure of his successor, Donald Trump, who praised the normalization of relations between Manama and "Tel Aviv."
Therefore, this new agreement, according to experts, is a step within the framework of Washington's support for the Gulf kingdom, which was under an arms embargo just a decade ago.
However, this agreement between the United States and Bahrain is closely tied to the normalization of relations that the latter achieved with "Israel" in 2020.
It comes following the opening of the new Israeli embassy headquarters in Manama on September 4, 2023, by Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid.
During this visit, the Israeli minister also visited the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Manama, nearly two years after "Israel" joined forces participating in the U.S. Central Command missions in the region, which include the waters separating the Gulf states from Iran and the Red Sea waters.
This region has witnessed frequent incidents and attacks on oil tankers, Israeli commercial vessels, and others, with Iran being accused of being behind them.
The U.S. Fifth Fleet has its base in Bahrain, responsible for regional maritime security and deploying thousands of Navy personnel to mitigate regional tensions resulting from Iranian harassment and the seizure of commercial ships.
Bahrain also hosts the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command headquarters. Thousands of U.S. military personnel are deployed in this Gulf country, which is a major ally of Washington outside the NATO alliance.
In August 2023, a U.S. official spoke to AFP about plans to deploy a security escort composed of Navy personnel aboard merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and its vicinity to provide an additional layer of defense for these vulnerable vessels.
This agreement between Manama and Washington comes at a time when the Biden administration is adopting a more realistic approach in its efforts to build a broad alliance in the Middle East to deter Tehran while also addressing Beijing's defensive and technological encroachment in the region.
Confronting China
Hence, this agreement is seen as an attempt by the United States to weaken any security agreements between regional countries and China, which has been bolstering its economic ties with Gulf states recently.
This plan to enhance Washington's military presence comes at a time when the Gulf region is experiencing enhanced diplomatic activity, deepening ties between its countries and China.
As Beijing brokered a "historic" agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023, described as such due to its resumption of relations between the two countries after a seven-year hiatus, it's worth noting that Iran's relations with other Gulf states have also seen growth.
Under the new agreement, which took a year to prepare, the United States committed to expanding defense and technological cooperation and enhancing intelligence capabilities with Bahrain.
The agreement also encompasses economic cooperation, with the hope of building upon the U.S.–Bahrain Free Trade Agreement of 2006, which helped triple trade to reach $3 billion annually.
It encourages the development of "trusted" digital technologies to support secure communication networks, described by the United States as the first binding agreement of its kind.
Given Bahrain's predominantly Shia population and its particular strained relationship with Iran, under this new agreement, if Bahrain were to face an attack, the United States would consult with the Bahraini government to determine the best way to "address the ongoing aggression," according to a senior official in the Biden administration who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity.
The official stated that one of the provisions of the agreement allows Bahrain and the United States to invite other countries to join the agreement, describing the deal as the cornerstone through which a "broader group of nations" can enhance stability and economic growth in the Middle East.
On the other hand, the agreement outlines Bahrain's participation in the new trade route by rail and sea between India and Europe through the Middle East. Plans for this trade route were unveiled during President Joe Biden's visit on September 8, 2023, to attend the G20 Summit in New Delhi.
The White House announced plans to forgive hundreds of billions of dollars in international loans to promote development in low and middle-income countries through the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund during that visit.
These moves come at a time when the Chinese economy has begun to slow down after years of unbridled growth.
Therefore, this agreement between Washington and Bahrain marks the second major strategic announcement in the Middle East by the Biden administration during September 2023.
A Model for the Gulf
The New York Times considers the Bahrain-U.S. agreement, which promises defense for Manama, as a model for other Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are also pressing for stronger U.S. security commitments.
In this context, Jon B. Alterman, the director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, noted in an interview with the Financial Times on September 13, 2023, that the Bahrain agreement is much less than what the neighbors are seeking, but it will be the primary reference point for their negotiations.
He stated that Gulf states are looking for protection similar to NATO's Article 5 collective defense commitment, but the U.S. Senate is not eager to establish binding commitments for the country to engage in another war in the Middle East.
The Financial Times highlights that after Bahrain normalized relations with "Israel" in 2020, the United States hopes to receive a similar response from Saudi Arabia in exchange for security guarantees and economic incentives.
In this regard, the analyst at the consulting firm Maplecroft, Torbjorn Soltvedt, told AFP on August 7, 2023, that security will remain a key focus in the U.S.-Gulf relations, even if the threat posed by Iranian attacks on (the shipping) sector diminishes, estimating that there is a need for a new and clear approach.
American Strategy
As such, Bahrain's choice at this time is an extension of its hosting of fluctuating numbers of U.S. military forces since the 1970s.
The Manama government allowed the George H.W. Bush administration to deploy forces in the country after Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
It also hosted a U.S.-led maritime security coalition and was the first country to cooperate with the new artificial intelligence-supported unmanned aircraft task force of the U.S. Navy, known as Task Force 59, beginning in 2021.
The new agreement between Manama and Washington seeks to formalize many of the initiatives led by the U.S. Central Command since 2021 in the region.
This includes integrating regional air and missile defenses into interconnected networks of AI-supported sensors to monitor Iranian activities in the waterways of the Gulf.
According to Former United States Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, Michael Patrick Mulroy, recognizing partners who have contributed significantly to U.S. national security is what the U.S. should be doing, and this accomplishes that.
Mulroy, an analyst for ABC News, added on September 13, 2023, that it's important for U.S. partners to know that America will be there for the long term, and things should be made like "our" inclusion as a major non-NATO ally means something.
Gulf countries are likely to closely monitor what this deal will entail in terms of Washington's commitment to defending Bahrain against Iran, as the agreement serves as a relatively low-risk test balloon for the United States.
Manama is not involved in any external conflicts, unlike Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which have faced unprecedented pressure from Congress to block major arms sales due to their involvement in Yemen.
