A New Era: Can the Saudi–Turkish Rapprochement Contribute to Ending the Yemeni War?

The joint Saudi–Turkish statement regarding the Yemeni crisis and their call for a political solution to the long-standing war has sparked several questions about the possible scenarios concerning the Yemen issue after Ankara’s involvement, especially following the drone deal made with Riyadh.

For approximately 9 years, Yemen has been witnessing a war between forces loyal to the legitimate government, supported by an Arab military coalition led by Saudi Arabia, and the Houthi militia backed by Iran, who have been in control of provinces, including the capital Sana’a, since September 2014.

 

An Invitation to the Houthis

On July 19, 2023, both Saudi Arabia and Turkiye reaffirmed their full support for the Presidential Council in the Yemeni Republic and commended the international efforts to strengthen the ceasefire in a joint statement.

This statement came after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, as part of a Gulf tour that also included Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

The joint statement emphasized the importance of the Houthis’ positive engagement with international and UN efforts aimed at ending the Yemeni crisis and dealing seriously with peace initiatives and efforts.

For several months now, regional and international efforts have been intensifying to achieve a comprehensive political solution to the crisis in Yemen.

This has included visits of Saudi and Omani delegations to Sana’a, as well as various multilateral UN and international actions to push forward the peace process.

The United Nations had facilitated a ceasefire between the Yemeni army and the Houthi militia for a duration of six months, which ended in October 2022. Since then, Yemen has been in a de facto truce-like situation without a formal announcement, but the country experiences occasional armed confrontations.

Ankara and Riyadh’s direct call to the Houthis for ending the crisis in Yemen came shortly after Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman announced the signing of three agreements with Turkiye, including the purchase of Turkish drones and an “executive plan for defense cooperation.”

On July 18, 2023, Khalid bin Salman tweeted that he was delighted to sign the executive plan for defense cooperation with Turkiye’s National Defense Minister, Hulusi Akar, with the empowerment and support of Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman.

He further stated that this plan marks the culmination of the cooperation between the two friendly countries in the defense and military domain.

The Defense Minister of Saudi Arabia, who met with Erdogan during the latter’s visit to the kingdom, also mentioned that contracts were signed between the Ministry of Defense and the Turkish company BAYKAR Technology, through which the Saudi Ministry of Defense will acquire drones to enhance the preparedness of the armed forces and boost the kingdom’s defense and manufacturing capabilities.

On June 24, 2020, Intelligence Online reported that Turkish defense companies were in negotiations to secure new contracts in Riyadh, thanks to allies with good business relations.

Before the two parties resumed communication in 2022, relations between Ankara and Riyadh had been under constant strain due to deep-seated disputes over various regional issues. Among the prominent points of contention were the Gulf crisis with Qatar (which ended in 2021), Libya, and Egypt following the military coup in the summer of 2013, as well as the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

 

Possible Scenarios

Mohammed Alloush, researcher in Turkish affairs, stated that the joint statement by Ankara and Riyadh following Erdogan’s visit to Saudi Arabia reflects their mutual desire to develop a new partnership addressing regional issues.

Alloush emphasized that the affirmation of their shared stance on various regional matters, particularly security issues, indicates Ankara and Riyadh’s willingness to align their regional policies in the future.

He believes that Turkiye can play a significant role in Saudi Arabia’s strategy in Yemen, especially concerning security aspects, particularly with the sale of Turkish drones to Saudi Arabia, which marks the largest deal in Turkiye’s history.

According to the researcher, there is a growing trend to push for a political settlement in Yemen, especially following the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Turkiye sees itself as an optimal solution to end the conflict in Yemen and supports any efforts to promote peace in the country.

With the resumption of diplomatic relations and the reopening of embassies between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023, Alloush highlights that a new era is unfolding in Turkish–Gulf relations.

This reflects both parties’ direction toward building a comprehensive strategic partnership, evident during Erdogan’s recent Gulf visit and the agreements and political statements issued during that tour.

He emphasizes that this partnership will extend beyond security and economic aspects to encompass geopolitical realms, reshaping the region’s political geography and establishing a new episode in the area.

The Turkish–Gulf partnership is expected to play an influential role in the evolving regional order. As a result, all regional issues, including Yemen, will undoubtedly be affected by this rapprochement.

Alloush acknowledges that Turkiye’s role in Yemen is limited compared to its involvement in Syria and Libya.

Nevertheless, the increasing cooperation and growing relationship between Ankara and Riyadh, particularly in the security and military domains, can add value to Saudi Arabia in facing security challenges in the Yemeni file.

 

Humanitarian Support

Turkiye’s role in Yemen since the start of the war has been primarily focused on providing humanitarian assistance.

Turkish relief organizations have been actively involved in the country, especially the Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH) and the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA), offering vital aid to a nation experiencing one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world.

Ankara consistently provides food, medical aid, and essential supplies to the affected areas and the most impoverished families in Yemen. It has emerged as a highly active humanitarian force in the country, albeit without direct political or military involvement to date.

The ongoing war in Yemen, which has been raging for nine years, has resulted in a dire humanitarian situation, with around 80 percent of the population in need of humanitarian assistance.

There are more than 3.6 million internally displaced persons, and approximately 50 percent of healthcare facilities are non-operational.

However, after the Houthi rebels claimed to have shot down a Turkish spy drone in March 2021, speculations arose regarding Turkiye’s support for Saudi Arabia in Yemen.

Nevertheless, neither Ankara nor Riyadh made any official comments or clarifications on the matter at that time.

Turkiye has consistently condemned the rocket attacks launched by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia, particularly concerning the attack on oil facilities near Dammam in March 2021.

At that time, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed deep concern over the attacks that targeted the territory of the kingdom and added: “We wish safety and well-being for our friend Saudi Arabia, its government, and its people.”