Mysterious Steps; Learn About Sadr's History With Political Quirks in Iraq

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An article published by the Turkish Anatolia News Agency by the writers Belgay Doman and Mohammad Alaga monitored the role of Muqtada al-Sadr in the Iraqi political situation, because, as they described them, "the most influential figure, being the leader of the Other Alliance, the most powerful bloc in the Baghdad parliament."

Sadr, in a controversial decision on July 15, 2021, decided not to participate in the early elections scheduled for October 2021.

Important figures in the movement withdrew from the race after Sadr's decision, and the political body responsible for managing the day-to-day affairs of the parliamentary bloc Sadrism was dissolved, and guidance was given on parliamentary decisions and legislation.

Sadr's decision, described by the West as a "kingmaker," to withdraw from the elections suddenly shows that Shiite politics and his steps are unpredictable and reveals different political and social dynamics, the official Turkish news agency reported.

"It is no accident that the decision came after 92 people lost their lives in a fire that broke out at a hospital in Nasiriyah on July 13, 2021, and when the country was without power," the authors said.

In April 2021, 82 people died in a similar fire at a Baghdad hospital, making Sadrism the target of widespread criticism in Iraqi public opinion and social media.

 

Multiple Scenarios

"Given that the ministers of health and electricity are close to the Sadrist movement, recent events have raised questions and debate about the potential and capabilities of the current," Said Doman and Alaga.

"That's why it can be said that Sadr's decision is a maneuver aimed at calming down and redirecting the anger that society has," they said. 

"Despite the resignation of Health Minister Hassan al-Tamimi of Sadrist movement after the fire, it became clear that Sadr was trying to get out of social chaos with minimal damage while protecting his base in the face of mounting anger."

"On the other hand, Sadr's decision may have been to feel the pulse of the Iraqi government, and to see if it will back down from holding the elections on time, but it seems that the government has not yet backed down," the authors said.

The Statement of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) stated that it was not possible to undo the elections after the names on the lists were announced, which was a challenge to Sadr.

"The boycott of some parties born out of protest movements may be behind Sadr's sudden decision to withdraw," they said.

"Although his relations with the protest movements have not been good, Sadr wants this decision to improve his image, which was damaged after the electricity and health crises above the demands of the Iraqi street."

"Or is it just a "temporary" withdrawal to rearrange his papers before the electoral race resumes, taking advantage of the current boycott wave, just as he has done so much in his political past," the article asked.

"It is possible that Sadr will not be able to find the alliances he is looking for to form a government after the elections, which are crucial to the boycott decision," the authors said.

The decision seems to be a step to buy more time than anything else, given that Sadr's current has not formed a clear alliance for the post-election period. According to the two Turkish writers.

 

Shiite Rivalry

Iraq's Shiite political scene is divided into four main themes, except for the Sadrist movement: the pro-Iranian Fatah alliance led by Hadi al-Ameri, and the Wisdom Movement led by Ammar al-Hakim.

Along with Haider al-Abadi's Al-Nasr Coalition, parties emerged from protests that began in October 2019.

Sadr's rivals among Shiite groups enjoy a strong position, and successive visits to Iraq by IRGC Quds Force Commander Ismail Qaani and Revolutionary Guard Intelligence Chief Hussein al-Tayeb mean a lot to Iraq.

Especially after America announced its desire to withdraw from Iraq, the writers Doman and Alaga called "open support from the Revolutionary Guard for pro-Iranian militias as well as election-related steps."

"Sadr is very good at managing and directing the country's political processes and imposing his own methods," they said.

Sadrist movement has been crucial in forming the last four governments: Nouri al-Maliki's second term in 2010, Haider al-Abadi's 2014 election, Adel Abdul Mahdi's 2018 government and Mustafa al-Kadhimi's government in 2020.

"It is not surprising that Sadr was effective in both the government and the opposition and that he sometimes resorted to retreating in political crises to come back."

This did happen before the 2005 and 2014 elections; Sadr decided to withdraw and then backed down shortly thereafter.

"Sadr had an influential role to play in the 2014 overthrow of Maliki and Haider al-Abadi's arrival in power," the researchers said.

Although he was shocked to announce his retirement from politics in 2014, a year later he withdrew his ministers from Abadi's government and launched a campaign against raiding the Green Zone and occupying the parliament building. According to the Turkish writers.

They added: Despite allocating four important ministerial portfolios to his supporters in the government, Sadr played an important role in ousting Adel Abdel Mahdi by supporting the protest movements that began in October 2019.

A surprise decision also reversed support for protest movements.

However, Sadr's so-called "blue berets" even used violence against demonstrators.

Although Sadr supported Al-Kadhimi after Abdul Mahdi, he did not hesitate to withdraw his support from the government.

In this context, Sadr wants his latest decision to show the parties his face as a decisive force in Iraqi politics, according to the authors of the article.

 

A Well-Established Force

Referring to Muqtada al-Sadr's background, Doman and Alaga say: "Sadr senior, Ayatollah Mohammad Sadiq al-Sadr, led the opposition of Iraq's Shiite majority against Sunni President Saddam Hussein and was assassinated by the regime in 1999."

Based on his father's political legacy, Sadr Jr. established the Mahdi Army in 2003 and showed great resistance against the U.S. occupation.

"As many leaders fled the country, Sadr's resistance to the U.S. occupation boosted his popularity."

Although no long life can be expected for a politician who performs dangerous maneuvers, Sadr is still successful in mobilizing the base his father established with his social activities in slums in the early 1990s.

"Sadr's group entered parliament as the strongest group in the 2018 elections, as a result of this mobilization," they said.

Sadr uses his social support and his ability to mobilize hundreds of thousands of his supporters at will, against his opponents.

"Thanks to Sadr's ability to mobilize, Sadr’s stream has succeeded in imposing its hegemony in almost all parts of the Iraqi state apparatus since 2018," the article said.

M23 members hold positions in the ministries of interior, defense, and communications, as well as in oil, electricity and transport institutions, state banks and even the Central Bank of Iraq.

Sadr's supporters are said to have held nearly 200 positions in ministries for the past three years.

In addition, Sadr is trying, with a strategic approach, to gain a new base by providing services by focusing on the acquisition of service ministries. According to the authors.

"This not only paves the way for the current to access economic resources, but also enhances its bureaucratic role in decision-making, in other words, as the deep state in the Iraqi state apparatus," they believe.

"This popular support, historical heritage and political activity distinguishes Sadr from other Iraqi leaders and makes him bold in his decisions," they said.

Sadr is one of the few Shiite leaders who can stay long in Iran and Saudi Arabia despite their strained relationship;

"Sadr's decision not to participate in the elections means poor Shiite representation, which will cast a shadow over the legitimacy of the elections because of the lack of participation, in other words, any government formation will not represent the people," they said.

Al-Kadhimi said in his meeting with Shiite groups that there would be no elections without the participation of the Sadrist movement, so postponing the elections is possible, although this now seems difficult.

"However, the absence of Sadr's movement from the House of Representatives complicates the political scene, although this does not mean disrupting the next political process," they said.

Although most actors do not agree with postponing the elections, the failure to participate in the Sadrist movement will create a major vacuum in the political arena, according to the Turkish writers.

However, they believe that Sadr's lack of participation "gives way to pro-Iranian groups, as Fatah Coalition was the second most vote-winning group in the 2018 elections."

"Sadrist movement may return to the streets as an opposition if it does not participate in the elections and other parties have gained a crucial role in Iraqi politics," Doman and Alaga concluded.

Given the boycott of the elections by parties formed by protests that have been going on since the October 2021 revolution, tensions on the streets of Iraq are very likely to rise.

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