Monday 04 July, 2022

Al-Estiklal Newspaper

With Hezbollah’s Interventions; Will Najib Mikati Succeed in Resolving Lebanon’s Crises?

2021/08/03 22:08:00 |
New House elections must be held in less than a year.
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Persian-speaking Russia's Sputnik agency reported on the prospects of forming the new Lebanese government by well-known billionaire Najib Mikati for the third time, where he was prime minister before.

In the face of successive crises and a storm facing Lebanon, President Michel Aoun on July 26 tasked politician and businessman Mikati with forming a new government, following a 72-vote parliamentary vote.

Lebanon's situation has deteriorated in recent years and no government or minister has been able to improve the situation, and the crisis deepened after the Port of Beirut explosion in August 2020.


Hope in Mikati 

"For the third time in the last 20 years, Najib Mikati has decided to form the Lebanese government," said renowned writer and journalist Emad Abshnas.

Najib Mikati, a Sunni-orthodox Lebanese billionaire, was appointed prime minister in 2005 and 2011.

It should be noted that both times Lebanon was the prisoner of the political block, and Mikati was appointed prime minister as the last choice, and in the end, he directed the country towards the elections.

Mikati is one of the 446 richest people in the world, according to Forbes magazine's list, and has fairly good relations with the March 8 alliance, as well as with the March 14 alliance.

He also has good relations with the Countries of the West, and for the same reason some hope that it may be able to solve Lebanon's political dilemma.

It must be borne in mind that the basis of Lebanon’s political architecture dilemma was former U.S. President Donald Trump's control of the country's political structure, the author said.

"Saudi Arabia and Israel hope to enter into a war with Iran through Washington, and for the same reason they sought to overthrow the Lebanese political system so that they could reduce the powers of Lebanon's Hezbollah."

If the war against Iran is on its way, Hezbollah will not be able to attack Israel, he said.

"They were hoping that after the fall of Syria, there would be no further Hezbollah supporter, and Iran’s strategic depth, which was arriving in Lebanon through Damascus, would eventually collapse, and eventually they would do their job, attacking Tehran."


Washington Goals

Most viewpoints agree that the U.S. goal of occupying Afghanistan and then Iraq was to surround Iran in both respects, the author said.

"Bearing in mind that the Arab Gulf states had put their military bases at Washington's disposal, as well as the Stability of the Americans in Turkey as well, then Iran is under siege from the United States and will then attack them," he says.

But what happened was that Iran not only could overcome the military blockade, but also plunged the Americans into the region's issues, and they realized for themselves that it was these Iranians who pulled them into the trap and trapped them for the time being, he said.

Now the Americans have shown that they have decided to leave the area, because all their plans have failed, and they have had to find other plans.

"Going back to Lebanon, we see that the circumstances of the region have changed a lot, taking into account Trump's departure, and then changing Washington's policy," Abshanas said.

Saudi Arabia and Iran, on the other hand, are negotiating to resolve their differences, and the Syrian regime's army has succeeded in taking control, so it is only natural that Mikati has the opportunity to form a government, he said.

"The new parliamentary elections should be held in less than a year (in 2022) in Lebanon, and it is obvious that the countries of the West, Saudi Arabia, and Israel hope that the Lebanese people will not be ready to elect the resistance front, taking into account the conditions they have created over the last few years there, and for the same reason they are seeking to hold these elections."

According to Lebanon's laws, elections will not be held in the absence of a stable government in Lebanon, and the Lebanese parliament can extend the term of deputies due to lack of electoral conditions, the author said.

For example, the period of deputies was extended by the Lebanese Parliament during the nearly 16-year civil war, due to the lack of the possibility of holding elections. 


Kings of Sects

After the Taif Agreement in 1989, a minority of the kings of the sects came to power, carrying out a war after the civil war and gaining power.

"So far, Lebanon is under the control of the kings of the sects, and they are the main problem," the author says.

Prior to the Taif agreement, there was a sectarian division of government posts and positions with an unwritten agreement, and there was no reference in Lebanon's basic law to the type of government.

For example, it was not stated that the President of the Republic should be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister was a Sunni Muslim, the Speaker of the House of Representatives was a Shiite Muslim, and others.

After the Taif agreement, this type of quota (i.e. a stable quota or part, used in the sense of the relative share of the parliamentary system) between the kings of the sects was settled, and it can be said that Lebanon's fundamental problems have increased.

Mikati is a Sunni figure born in the Lebanese city of Tripoli, and can be counted in the same group, not outside it.

However, bearing in mind that to change the composition of the council, which is mostly at the disposal of supporters of the so-called Resistance Front, it is conceivable that the rival faction of this axis will seek to form a government in any way.

"But when and in what form will it form? This probability is related to the internal elections in Lebanon", the author concluded.

"It is possible that the faction backed by the West, Saudi Arabia and Israel will seek to draw events so that there is no chance of any activity except for the upcoming Lebanese government elections," he said.




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