This Is Why Peace Negotiations in Yemen Failed to Stop the War

Despite international voices supporting a ceasefire in Yemen, a country that has been afflicted by the ravages of war for 7 years.

The international efforts led by the United Nations and the United States are not enough to stop the bloodshed of its people.

 

Military Campaigns

The French newspaper, La Croix, said that “efforts have been intensified to secure a ceasefire in Yemen, since the Houthi group began its attack on the oil province of Marib, in February 2021, which has since led to the displacement of about 20 thousand Yemenis in the east of the country”.

The Houthi group, which had launched a military campaign in January 2020, against Marib Governorate, before intensifying its ground offensive in February 2021.

The International Organization for Migration, said on May 24, 2021, about 20,384 civilians fled their homes and camps in the city of Serwah, west of Marib.

The newspaper pointed out that “these efforts have so far not been crowned with any significant results”, it explained that “the ceasefire talks were unable to stop the clashes in Yemen”.

On June 27, 2021, government officials in Yemen said: more than 100 fighters died in just three days in battles in the Marib Governorate.

Despite repeated calls for a cease-fire from the United Nations and the United States, the Houthi group continues its attack on this oil-rich region, which is the last stronghold of the Yemeni government in the east of the country.

There was some calm in May 2021; However, fighting resumed after that between government forces backed by the coalition, led by Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthi forces.

 

Precondition 

The researcher at the National Center for Scientific Research, Francois Verizon Roche, in his analysis of the situation in Marib, said, “The Houthis are pressing to consolidate their positions, determining the balance of power and influence in negotiations, and showing that they are legitimate interlocutors”.

Riyadh, for its part, recently expressed its regret, because the Houthis did not accept a unilateral ceasefire proposal.

On the other hand, the Houthis who control most of northern Yemen and the capital, Sanaa, called Riyadh to end the air and sea blockade imposed on their country; as a precondition for a ceasefire agreement.

UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths in a speech in front of the UN Security Council in mid-June 2021, noted the failure of his efforts to find a peaceful solution to the three-year mission.

The British diplomat took the opportunity to once again call for a ceasefire, in this ongoing conflict since 2014, which killed tens of thousands of Yemenis.

 

Saving-Face

Negotiations are continuing, through the Sultanate of Oman and under the auspices of the Americans, who recently recognized the Houthis as “legitimate interlocutors”, which threatens Washington with a crisis with their Saudi ally.

The former advisor at the Yemeni embassy in Paris, the founder of the non-governmental “Yemeni Peace Organization”, Sadiq Al-Saar, he said: “The appointment of Tim Leader King, in February 2021, as US President Joe Biden's envoy (to Yemen), it gave a lot of hope”.

Reaching a ceasefire agreement in Yemen is a success for the Biden administration, which hopes to ease tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

In attempts to calm down between Riyadh and Tehran, several secret meetings have been held since January 2021 between the two parties, which have not had diplomatic relations since 2016, but the file of ceasefire in Yemen is not certain that it was at the top of the topics discussed between the two parties.

In an interview with Agency-France-Presse in early June 2021, Yemeni Foreign Minister Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak accused Tehran of wanting to use the conflict as a bargaining card with its nuclear negotiations.

However, an analysis published by the Washington Institute for researchers Ilana Delozier and Adam Barron indicated that “the Saudis increasingly want to end this war, which became a disaster for their public relations in the West, it is a war that tests the confidence of the Saudi people in their army”.

The two researchers added that the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen is in a critical situation, but his negotiating position is also likely to deteriorate, this forces it to make concessions.

Researcher at the “National Center for Scientific Research” Francois Frison Roche, who is eager to speak slowly without enthusiasm, emphasized that “the Saudis certainly want a solution that makes it possible to end the conflict for saving-face”.

He believes that “the situation is still a stalemate”, and he expects that “no progress will be made in the short or medium term”.