Will the impact of the Turkish presence in Afghanistan continue for long periods?

Turkey is going through an important turning point in its foreign policy, which relates to its remaining in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US and NATO forces.

This is a matter that will affect Turkey for many years because of the risks it contains, according to what the Turkish newspaper “Haber Turk” says in an article by the writer and dean at Bozok University “Kursad Zorlu”.

 

Historical Background

Afghanistan is an important major region in Central and South Asia, Pakistan, Iran and India, and even China, which is on the corridor of trade and energy, it is also of great importance to the Silk Road, in addition to containing rich underground resources, before that, it was the battleground between England and Russia in the past, according to the Turkish writer.

He says: The most important of all this is that it is a region where no one has emerged victorious from the wars that have raged on its ground, as the Afghan people were victims of the invasion of the Soviet Union, then the occupation of the United States, but the result was the loss of tens of thousands of lives from them, wasting generations and wasting hundreds of billions of dollars.

However, it has turned into a battlefield of global and regional powers, where extremist and terrorist organizations gather, internal chaos and conflict, permitting movement, immigration and drug trade, and border problems, etc., it makes Afghanistan a deep quagmire in the context of the armed struggle.

Looking at the current situation, we see that the United States could not win, as the Taliban increased its power, it has reached the point where it can control the northern part of the country.

The Turkish writer asks: “Therefore, the most important question is: Will the Turkish soldiers who were there for training and logistical support find themselves facing the parties to the conflict there?”.

He adds: A similar discussion happened in 2008, Turkey had soldiers in Afghanistan under the supervision of the International Security Assistance Force, the Turkish armed forces had announced at the time that they were against sending a combat force despite the request of the United States, it maintains this position until now; Therefore, Turkey is the most successful country within its capabilities, especially in Afghanistan.

He continues: Thus, we see that Turkey has already participated in the operation of Kabul Airport under the umbrella of NATO for several years, and that what is required of it from now on is to continue this task alone, or in partnership with some countries.

By the way, since it is only a matter of Kabul airport security; Therefore, reaching an agreement with the Taliban will remain confined to this matter only? says the writer.

He explains: In this case, Turkey will be able to be there with a dual agreement, after the complete withdrawal of US and NATO forces, but most importantly, how to achieve this as a force that is not a party to the conflict, despite its opposition to the Taliban, this is what we should focus on.

 

Imminent Danger

Zorlu continues: Although the United States and NATO are withdrawing from the region, it was decided that Turkey would remain, one of the countries with the largest military forces in the alliance.

With time, the terrible picture that was left by those who entered Afghanistan 20 years ago to “eradicate terrorism” and “bring peace” becomes clearer, they are now leaving the country, conceding almost the entire country to the Taliban that they came to eradicate it, according to the Turkish writer.

He adds: As for the Taliban, which aims to take control of Kabul, it tries to control the northern areas as much as possible during the withdrawal process, to gain advantage on the table.

The best possible scenario is that Afghan forces and local militias regain control of some areas from the Taliban, for example, 50%, and draw a balanced map.

He explains: The effects of the clashes appear with great force in the north of the country and in the corridor that opens to Central Asia in particular.

In this, eight Afghan provinces are located on the borders of the Turkish republics in Central Asia, these are Herat, Badghis, Faryab, Jawzjan, Balkh, Kunduz, Takhar and Badakhshan on the borders of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan in order from west to east.

He continues: These provinces were relatively conflict-free and were stable, in the first ten years after entering the United States in 2001.

That is why there have been no developments that would threaten the security of the borders, and the neighboring countries, but with 2013, clashes began to escalate little by little between the Taliban and Afghan forces and local forces since then in these provinces.

He adds: Currently, the Taliban movement is besieging almost all the provinces in the north, except for Balkh, Kunduz and Jawzjan.

Although Balkh, which is of particular importance for Uzbekistan has become an outlet for infiltration and asylum, the last of these is what happened in the last days of the asylum of 53 Afghan soldiers on the Uzbek side.

As we are now, we find ourselves facing a situation that threatens the security of these three countries, other than Pakistan, in Central Asia, although it seems that the Turkmen do not want to move and interfere in the case because of the “neutrality agreement”, and Uzbeks because of the principle of “non-interference in the internal affairs of the neighboring country”, but this has become inevitable, as the author sees it.

 

Turkish Role

Zorlu considers that Afghanistan can come close to stability as a step in regional cooperation, the Turkish-speaking communities in the north of the country should continue to live there, and that no demographic change occurred, this is an important and vital matter to achieve the security and stability of the Central Asian and Turkestan line in the country, as well as Turkey's historical role in Afghanistan.

He adds: “The protection of Turkish communities there should also be one of Turkey's most important goals, as long as you remain at Kabul airport and assume this responsibility, if progress can be made in this, Turkey's weight in the country will increase, it would also be an obstacle to the danger of migrating to Central Asia, of course, this small success will become a tool of influence in the European Union as well”.

He continues: In addition to this, Turkey's neutral role and policy in the region should not be harmed in any way, although Hungary and Pakistan also said this, I am one of those who believe that the case of Uzbekistan should be somehow put on the diplomatic table regarding the situation in the North.

Even if this is not done directly, Turkey's start to work on this case with Uzbekistan, progress in it with the Taliban would be a step that would comfort the Afghan government as well, other Central Asian countries will also begin to engage in the process in this way.

Hungary and Pakistan

Zorlu points out that there are several main reasons for Hungary's participation, the most important of which is the development of Turkish-Hungarian relations, after joining the Turkish Council in 2018, dual relations and communication between the heads of the two countries have become stronger, Hungary also wants to increase its ability to influence within NATO while increasing its military and defense budget.

He says: Perhaps Orban's desire to show the importance of his country, which was criticized for “tyranny”, especially in Europe, influenced Afghanistan's decision as well, it is also clear that it is the country most concerned about any possible wave of migration in the European Union.

However, the situation in Pakistan is very different, relations between the two countries have been tense due to joint territorial claims and border issues, nor is it wrong to say that Pakistan supported the Taliban in Afghanistan in the 1990s, this support continues, there are even parties in the Pakistani parliament that openly support the Taliban, the writer draws.

On the other hand, there are nearly 3 million Afghan refugees on the border, while more than 70,000 Pakistani citizens are said to have died in this war; However, Pakistan is one of Afghanistan's two largest trading partners.

The Turkish writer concludes his article by asking: “Are all these conclusions and approaches sufficient to convince the Taliban?”. This is what time will tell us.