"Violent Tremor"; Turkish Newspaper Monitors the Repercussions of Zarif Leaks

A Turkish newspaper highlighted the repercussions of Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif's “leaked” audio recording, which has resonated “greatly” and appeared on the agenda of world events, it's like a “bomb exploded” in front of everyone.

The newspaper “Sabah” in an article by writer and researcher Mustafa Janner, that “the audio recordings were part of a series of interviews, it aims to document political developments, during the period of Hassan Rouhani's government, within the tradition of oral history in Iran”.

“This leak, which aired on April 26, 2021, it forms a three-hour part of a seven-hour interview with reformist academic Saeed Laylaz, it is worth analyzing and considering in terms of content, timing, And the potential consequences it leads to”.

Internal Conflict

The author said: “What Zarif said in the recording was not surprising to those who follow the Iranian affairs closely, Zarif spoke in the recording about the problems he had with the commander of the Quds Force in the Revolutionary Guard, Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in a U.S. operation in Baghdad in early 2020”.

“According to Zarif, Soleimani was someone who did not allow the minister and his team to work, he followed his own agenda in the region and failed the Activities of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs”.

On the other hand, Zarif also spoke about the joint work done by IRGC leaders with Russian leaders, to block and stop the 2015 nuclear deal, although there were other important details in this hours-long interview, however, these two issues were the most prominent.

Janner said: “The disagreement between the government and the Revolutionary Guard, the role of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in relation to the role of the Revolutionary Guard in foreign policy is well-known”.

It should also come as no surprise that the Revolutionary Guard has close ties with the Russian army, since they have been working together in the Syrian region for six years, this is instead of the United States and the Pentagon, which they have declared “terrorists”, according to the author.

He added: “Thus, it seems clear that Iran's normalization of relations with the United States through the nuclear deal is not in Russia's interest, so there's nothing surprising or surprising about recording in terms of content, but what is really important in all of this is that these facts are made clear by a high-ranking political official”.

However, “Zarif's resignation in 2019 was already revealing his weak position, and the discomfort he felt about Soleimani”.

“His move that day was a political maneuver, opening up an important and wide area for Zarif, it seems that the records leaked a few days ago, will do the same, it opens up a noteworthy political space for him”.

He added: “It would be better to ask the question about people, or the beneficiaries of this leak, instead of asking who leaked the registration, where the timing of the leak is very important, there are two types of political agendas that are closely linked to Iran these days: “The ongoing nuclear talks in Vienna and the upcoming presidential elections (mid-2021)”.

Tipping the Scales

Janner sees that “continued positive progress in the ongoing Vienna talks and an interim agreement, or lifting sanctions before the next election, it will undoubtedly benefit reformers; the audio recording caused violent reactions from the conservatives”.

So, as President Rouhani said: “The audio tape may have been leaked with the intention of damaging the Vienna talks, if so, this will be in the interest of the conservatives”.

However, the author said: “But when you look at the other hand, note that this leak can strengthen the attitude of Zarif and his thorn, since the source of dissatisfaction with reformists in Iran, from the idea that they are actually part of the system, and they are nothing different from the conservatives”.

“It is only natural that low turnout rates will benefit the conservative wing, and so the only way to turn the table upside down, it will be to show reformers that they can act boldly in the context of accountability of the regime, contrary to popular belief”, Zarif's leaked audio recording provides this possibility, according to the Turkish writer.

Janner said: “Zarif's courageous question about Soleimani, one of the regime's important symbols, on the concept of martyrdom in the context of government discourse, may open the door wide to social support for Zarif, who is highly likely to run for election, of course, however, the Guardian Council is expected to reject his candidacy”.

He continued: “But since this decision will result in an important segment of society abstaining from voting in the elections, this could cost the regime more than Zarif did by striking the government's rhetoric, especially since he is still protected in one way or another as secretary of state, since the audio recording was essentially confidential and leaked, besides being cute, He did not target Soleimani in his public speeches”.

In addition, Zarif does not directly target supreme leader Ali Khamenei, either, with a political culture that enables figures such as former president Ahmadinejad directly against Khamenei, from obtaining membership in the Expediency Council, by personal order of Khamenei, Zarif is unlikely to be blacklisted, if he is not allowed to run, he will continue his political career, the writer says.

Janner concluded his article: “Audio recordings do not seem to weaken Iran, or to create an atmosphere of instability, being a revelation of a power struggle between institutions, since Iran’s political system is already known for its conflicts and fragility”.

And he added: “Khamenei has not spoken a word on this subject yet, he may speak very cautiously in the coming days, and give the message that the situation is under control, but the expectations should not go beyond the fact that events in the coming days are more than a matter of party settling”.