After the US Withdrawal, an Iranian Researcher Foresees the Future of China in Afghanistan
An Iranian researcher shed light on the possibility of China occupying America’s position after its withdrawal from Afghan lands, and spoke of the imminence of the United States leaving Afghan lands after staying nearly 20 years.
Ramin Fakhari, a researcher at the Iranian “Allameh Tabataba'i” University, pointed out that “the time has to come to end the occupation, because Afghanistan is a cemetery of empires and has not accepted occupation throughout history, and this may be due to its geographic ruggedness and its mountainous nature, which affected its people and has granted them war spirit.”
Cemetery of Empires
“History has made clear that any usurper country does not remain in the occupied lands forever,” Fukhari said in his article, which he published on the “Iranian Diplomacy” website.
He considered that “one of the clear matters is that Afghanistan is one of the countries that do not accept any empire, not Alexander the Macedonian, nor Iran, nor the Mongols, nor the Soviet Union, and none of them has been able to dominate or impose control on this country.”
He added: “Now, 20 years later, the United States is about to leave Afghanistan, and perhaps some of the reasons for this country to turn into the cemetery of empires being a mountainous region which have led to the strengthening of the war spirit among the people, and in addition to that, the conditions were created from a strategic point of view to conceal and inflict a severe blow towards the enemy.”
The writer continued: “But the issue that must be investigated is which superpower will be resolved over Afghanistan after America. The first issue that must be investigated regarding China is that the Chinese are aware from the beginning that Afghanistan is the cemetery of empires.”
As a result, the behavior of the Chinese vis-à-vis Afghanistan was “more cautious, and they did not seek a permanent presence in these areas at all.”
Fukhari attributed this to that “China is an economic monster, and security is required for economic development. As a result, Beijing, in its size, whether in the past or in the future, is to be in Afghanistan in order to be able to maintain the security of Xinjiang region, and to work on a separation between the Taliban and the Uighurs.”
Separate World
He further pointed out that “Afghanistan, although it possesses the most precious and modern minerals in the world, requires security there to extract and explore them, and this matter must be taken into consideration, and when there is no longer power and security after 20 years for America which has the largest military budget in the world, then China would not possess such ability, and as a result it is forced to ignore its interests in Afghanistan.”
For example, in 2019, Afghanistan imported 1.1 billion goods from China, and it allocated 31 million dollars of exports only for it, and the trade balance of Afghanistan with China is negative, meaning that Beijing supports Kabul in this way annually at about 1.1 billion dollars. Only “in order to preserve the security of its borders.”
On the other hand, China works in the field of foreign trade with a small country like Kuwait at about 14 billion dollars annually, from which it imports oil annually at about 9 billion dollars, and the statistics of China’s trade balance with the rest of the Arab Gulf states cannot indicate the economic presence of China in Afghanistan, according to the writer.
“The Chinese did not notice in any way the presence of Afghanistan during the new Silk Road, but it is noticeable that part of this road connects between Central Asia and Iran, and part of Pakistan with the port of Gwadar, and it is also possible to confirm that China has a controlling program for its presence in Kabul or establishing security on the Silk Road through Afghanistan.”
Fukhari added: “In terms of civilizational participation also, China and Afghanistan are located on one continent, and the are neighbor of each other, but each of them has a separate world and is different from the other, if China wants to exist in Afghanistan from a civilized point of view, even in a technological expansion, it will have to confront resistance groups.”
In the end, a conclusion must be reached, which is that when the United States has not been able to control Afghanistan with its direct military budget, and to take advantage of its minerals and economic opportunities, it is far away, and it is almost impossible for China to be able to take a greater share of Afghanistan, according to the writer.
Fukhari concluded his article by saying: “The only aspect that creates the opportunity for a greater presence for China in Afghanistan is its neighborhood to Afghanistan, and we must think about this matter as the competition between China and India in this country will increase after America’s departure, and China will face its rival in the region, which is India.”
