After the calm. Where are Cairo's relations with Ankara and Doha directed?

In one week, Egypt's relations with Turkey and Qatar have witnessed remarkable developments, raised questions and speculation about possible next steps, to strengthen Cairo's relations with the two countries, after years of disengagement.

After nearly four years of political crisis between Egypt and Qatar, and about eight years of Egyptian crisis with Turkey, this is the first time that the United Nations has been able to make a significant and significant advance in its work.

It seems that relations will see a new phase, returning them to the box of political consensus and harmony, on April 12, 2021, Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani telephoned Egyptian Regime President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to congratulate Ramadan, communication is the first at this level since the Gulf-Egyptian boycott of Qatar on June 5, 2017.

It is also the first contact after the signing of the Gulf Reconciliation Agreement at the Al-Ula summit in Saudi Arabia on January 5, 2021.

A second remarkable position, represented by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu's contact with his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry, April 10, 2021, as the first contact at this level between the two countries since the military coup in Egypt in mid-2013, Ankara rejected it, resulting in a freeze on relations and the withdrawal of the ambassadors of the two countries.

After Ankara announced in March 2021 the resumption of diplomatic and intelligence contacts with Egypt, on Libya's files and the demarcation of the maritime border in the eastern Mediterranean; the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced the call, which came to congratulate the month of Ramadan, what observers saw as an end to eight years of tension.

The Egyptian Foreign Minister, for his part, confirmed on April 12, 2021 that the contact of Cavusoglu, it came in the context of Turkish statements, signs and gestures, it is appreciated about the importance of Egypt and the need to correct the course, he pointed out the need for a transition from the stage of political indicators, in order to determine the framework of the relationship and how to manage it.

On Turkey's closure of Egyptian opposition channels from Istanbul, Shoukry stressed, that the important thing is to "act in itself", he stressed the importance of observing international law in this regard.

Amid talks between Turkish officials since the beginning of 2021 about intelligence contacts between the two sides and at the level of the foreign ministries, as a consensus on the demarcation of the maritime border between the two countries approaches, however, Cairo was reluctant to emphasize that information, it demands that Turkey's actions conform to “Egyptian principles”, in order to normalize relations.

In the face of Egyptian pressure, Ankara in March 2021 asked the three Egyptian opposition satellite channels (Complementary, East and Watan) broadcasting from Istanbul, to ease the criticisms of the Cairo regime, Ankara has also offered to help resolve the crisis of the Panamanian ship that closed the Suez Canal on March 26, 2021.

Cavusoglu's contact, and Shoukry's comment on it, confirm according to observers that relations between the two countries reached a warm point after all the previous break, this consensus will bring calm to the troubled eastern Mediterranean.

This warmth will also ease the conflict between the two countries in Libya, in which Ankara supported the government of Fayez al-Sarraj, the legitimacy of Tripoli, Cairo has for years supported General Khalifa Haftar in Tobruk.

On the maritime border, Turkey has concluded an agreement to demarcate the maritime border with Libya, Egypt concluded another agreement with Greece, both of which were incompatible with the other.

Recently, some positive indicators appeared in the public, including the presentation of Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly on April 8, 2021, thanks to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his efforts during his presidency of the G8.

Positive statements initiated by Turkish officials and led by Erdogan in mid-March 2021, when he flirted with the Egyptians by saying that "the Egyptian people are no different with us."

Cavusoglu had previously said to Erdogan in early March 2021: “It is possible to negotiate with Cairo, to sign an agreement to determine the areas of maritime authority in the eastern Mediterranean”, Egypt is destined to respect the Turkish continental shelf with its agreement with Greece.

A New Era

The third position, came with the announcement of the Turkish Foreign Minister on April 14, 2021, that reciprocal visits will be made with Egypt, meetings will be held at the level of deputy ministers and diplomats, as part of the months-long process of repairing the rift, no date has been set.

He stressed that a "new era" of relations begins between Turkey and Egypt, he noted that the appointment of an ambassador would be "on the agenda" during those talks.

Cavusoglu returned to talk on April 15, 2021, a Turkish delegation will visit Cairo in early May 2021 in response to an Egyptian invitation, Turkish channel NTV reported.

The Turkish minister also announced another meeting he will meet with the Egyptian Foreign Minister after those talks, “Egypt is an important country for the Muslim world, Africa and Palestine, its stability and prosperity are important to all, he said.

Journalist “Hassan Hafez”, who pointed out the importance of Cavusoglu’s speech, on a new phase in relations with Egypt, and the soon to be respoken two deputy foreign ministers of the two countries, in parallel with the suspension of some opposition channel programs in Istanbul, Shoukry's positive talk about his Turkish counterpart's call, as well as the telephone conversation between El-Sisi and the prince of Qatar.

Hafez confirmed on his Facebook page: “They are all indications that Egypt's openness to Turkey and Qatar is going well”, he noted Ankara's strong desire to open up to Cairo.

He predicted that there would be differences in some regional files, he praised the agreement to adopt the political line in the Libyan file.

According to the Egyptian journalist, these rapprochements are “a golden opportunity for the Egyptian regime, for reconsider the policies of the interior”, he said, demanding the regime to put forward more freedom, the file of the detainees was terminated by virtue of the remand law.

Egyptian international lawyer Mahmoud Rifat, commenting on Cavusoglu's speech, about a new era of Relations between Turkey and Egypt, “It is most likely that Sisi and Erdogan have already met in the past few weeks through an unannounced meeting in a Gulf country”, he said.

Egyptian dissidents from abroad added via Twitter that “The contours of the next phase are taking shape, with the Middle East gradually returning to pre-2011 rules”.

Middle East researcher Yevgeny Satanovsky, told the Russian newspaper "Vzglyad", on Erdogan's need to get closer to Egypt: “Ankara has not benefited from its differences with Cairo, but is suffering economic losses, after the corruption of relations with some countries, the Turkish president is trying to normalize the affected relations with Cairo”.

Satanovsky added that given the bad relations with Egypt, Europe and America, Ankara does not have enough to be a major regional power, “Erdogan must do something, so he doesn't stay alone”, he said.

UAE's Behavior Changes

The Egyptian researcher and academic, Dr. Mohammed Al-Zawawi, believes that possible convergence and contacts have driven the three parties to it; the UAE's current behavior by changing its network of alliances, and the step I took to deepen the strategic alliance with Israel, and energy projects between the two sides, bypassing Cairo's interests in the Suez Canal, liquefaction and exporting gas to Europe.

“Al-Zawawi” Lecturer at the Middle East Institute of The University of Sakarya, Turkey, speaking to “Al-Estiqlal”, he stressed: “Egypt's rapprochement with Qatar and Turkey, it can be traced back to the main change in the relationship with the UAE”.

“Given the Egyptian need for a Gulf ally to provide him with money, Qatar can fill the vacuum of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, once the two countries shift to export their oil, through a tube that reaches the port of Eilat and then Ashkelon and from there to Europe”.

He noted the need for “a Gulf ally funding Egypt's projects, and if the budget deficit puts cash deposits in dollars, Cairo must therefore have a strong Gulf ally”.

The Egyptian academic said: “We don't want to jump to conclusions, but that's the explanation for the Egyptian-Qatari rapprochement”.

“Ankara's hub is the largest gas consumer in the region, Egypt may take it as an alternative to exporting gas via the Israel-Cyprus-Greece-Italy line; using the Arab gas line to Homs and through Turkey to Europe, this can be explained by the new developments.

Egyptian writer and political analyst Ezzat El-Nimr believes that “regional and international reality is one of the many reasons for the cooling of differences, or rather to normalize relations between countries, which is evident in the Egyptian situation, with Turkish and Qatari”.

During speaking to “Al-Estiqlal”, he said that “the region is living under the influence of the change of American decision-maker, especially with joe Biden’s administration's ambiguity about the territory's vocabulary and the interlocking of relations between them, this may change the image of the political positioning of the parties, in order to absorb the new reality”.

There are also natural setbacks resulting from Gulf reconciliation, it may go beyond the Gulf affairs, affecting the main axes in the region and the region, this results in a new situation that goes beyond the starting points of relations before reconciliation”, El-Nimr said.

He continued: “We also do not deny the Corona pandemic and its economic effects, which prompts the governments of the region - especially Egypt and Turkey - to try to reduce its effects, by cooling some differences and adopting economic interests as a lever for normalizing political relations, overcoming polarization and possibly boycotting peoples, it has an impact on tourism, consumption and therefore the economy”.

He also believes that “in the same way, tweeting the UAE is outside the swarm of intimate relationships and over-normalizing, as well as Abu Dhabi's spiteful policies against Qatar, which are traitors to Egypt with multiple files, Doha may be pushed to neutralize Cairo, especially since El-Sisi is easy to buy with a little or a lot of money”, he said.

The writer and political analyst also pointed out that “Abu Dhabi's repeated betrayals of Egypt with many files, it may open the door for El-Sisi's regime to normalize its relations with Ankara in search of its interests”.

Many Gains

“Turkish politics is pragmatic, and the Turkish president announced at his party's last conference zeroing problems with neighboring countries, especially Egypt”, he hinted that the Turkish-Egyptian rapprochement was aimed at many gains.

First: the highest gains from the wealth of the Eastern Mediterranean, especially after Egypt recognized the maritime border, which Turkey sent to the United Nations.

Second: calming the situation inside Libya in favor of economic singers, Ankara aspires to it after agreements signed by the Libyan government in Ankara recently.

Third: The pragmatism of Ankara, does not want to lose the Egyptian market - 100 million consumers - fearing the Egyptian influence on the Arab and Gulf mood through art, this has an impact on the Arab and Gulf consumer and tourist.

On the Egyptian side, El-Nimr expressed regret that he was “weak-winged and under-demanded”, especially after he became without a real ally, following the failure of his current alliances, and Saudi Arabia's departure from its interests, and the betrayals of the UAE and its transgression of Egypt's interests, as well as ignoring him completely, Greece, Cyprus and Israel, this is after the electrical connection agreement.

He said: “We also don’t forget that Egypt is experiencing a crisis in the Ethiopian dam file, what makes her demands are to try to silence the voice that is opposed to El-Sisi's inability and his regime to do so”.

With all these interlocking reasons, the tiger expects to normalize relations, even in terms of form, regardless of convictions and contents, “the next phase will be governed by the search for Turkey's strategic interests, and that narrow coup d'état, not Egypt”.

“The changes on the ground and the dynamics of regional and international reality will continue, it determines the final level of these relationships, whether the full meeting and the return of ambassadors, or setbacks that destroy what has been built”.

Director of the International Institute of Political and Strategic Sciences, Dr. Mamdouh Al-Munir, he said: “Turkey and Qatar are seeking to settle their problems with their Arab surroundings, the most important are the Egyptian crisis, the military coup, and Sisi's presence in power”.

Al-Munir, speaking to "Al-Estiqlal”, confirmed that “Although the rapprochement between them can only take place at the expense of the Egyptian revolution, but we cannot blame anyone but ourselves”.

“Turkey and Qatar have opened their arms to the Egyptian opposition for nearly eight years, the outcome of the real action of this opposition (big zero) if not negative”.

“The Egyptian opposition has proven to be a losing horse that cannot be bet on, and turned with time to a sick horse looking only for a living, the two countries have therefore abandoned support for the opposition, and the file has become a purely humanitarian form”, he said.

“The level of development of relationships cannot be predicted, but in the Turkish case it will remain under the roof of the presidency, because this is Erdogan’s last moral paper on the Egyptian issue”.

For Qatar, the situation will be more advanced, this is because the system needs Qatari investments, which Doha knows very well.

The Egyptian researcher believes that the most dangerous point lies in the extent to which the two countries hand over the leaders of the opposition to the Egyptian regime, “this will be difficult, and maybe if we get to this point, what will be needed is to leave Istanbul and Doha”.