This Is How the Earthquake in Syria Encouraged Arab Countries To Revive Relations With the Assad Regime

The devastating earthquake that struck northern Syria encouraged many leaders of Arab countries to normalize relations with the Syrian regime headed by Bashar al-Assad, despite the massacres committed by the regime during the past years.

In the Arab world, many voices called for the restoration of Syria and relations with Damascus; the earthquake may contribute then to achieving the aspirations of the regime.

Observers believe that Assad may use the quake disaster to accelerate normalization with the Arab countries, especially those refusing to revive relations with his regime.

On February 6, 2023, two successive earthquakes (7.7 and 7.6) struck southern Turkiye and northern Syria and killed hundreds of thousands.

More than 16 Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Oman, Bahrain, Algeria, the Emirates, Jordan, and Lebanon, have announced the establishment of air bridges, the provision of urgent relief and medical aid, and the launch of donation campaigns to support Turkiye and Syria.

The American Newlines institute confirmed that the horrific tragedy that befell Syria and Turkiye is a clear opportunity for Assad to try to accelerate the process of normalizing relations with the rest of the Arab world.

However, the humanitarian crisis, according to what the institute published in a report on February 10, 2023, will not exonerate his regime in front of Western countries.

The New York Times confirms that al-Assad took advantage of the disaster with the aim of returning to the international arena and breaking the boycott imposed on him because of what happened in Syria after the outbreak of the 2011 revolution.

In a report published on February 17, 2023, the newspaper confirmed that some Arab leaders who had rejected Bashar al-Assad for years began contacting him to discuss aid, just as UN leaders did for the same reason; many pictures were taken of him accompanied by Arab officials.

It quoted Emile Hokayem, Middle East affairs analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, as saying that the earthquake was a “blessing” for Assad trying to cling to it because no one wanted to manage this mess.

 

Arabic Solution

Arab calls to re-establish contact with Bashar al-Assad started through the Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Mohamed al-Halbousi.

The latter said in a statement on February 11 during the Fifth Conference of the Arab Parliament and heads of Arab councils and parliaments: “Syria must return to its Arab, regional, and international surroundings.”

In addition to Iraqi calls, many Arab countries started communicating with the regime, the most prominent of which was Jordan, as it was its foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, arriving on February 15, 2023, in Damascus to meet Assad.

Safadi’s visit, which is the first by a senior Jordanian official since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011, may be a prelude to the arrival of other Arab officials to Syria with an invitation to stand by Damascus after the earthquake.

In addition to Jordan, the Tunisian President, Kais Saied, decided to raise the level of diplomatic representation in Syria to fully revive relations with Damascus.

In a statement issued on February 13, 2023, the Tunisian presidency indicated that the issue of the Syrian regime is an internal matter of concern to Syrians alone and that the ambassador relies on the state, not the regime.

Al-Assad also received phone calls from Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed, the head of the Egyptian regime, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the Algerian Abdel-Majid Tebboune, and the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa; they expressed their solidarity with the Syrian and Turkish peoples, and their willingness to provide assistance.

Saudi Arabia, which boycotted the Assad regime after the revolution and refused to revive relations, sent huge aid; the kingdom’s planes landed in airports belonging to the Syrian regime.

Not only did Saudi Arabia send aid to the Syrian regime, but it may send its foreign minister, Faisal bin Farhan, to Damascus, which was confirmed by the Sputnik agency.

An informed Syrian source told Sputnik on February 16 that Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan will visit the Syrian capital, Damascus, in the next few days.

In case bin Farhan visited Damascus, this visit would be the first by a Saudi official to Syria since the 2011 revolution.

On February 18, the Saudi foreign minister said: “The Arab world started to understand that there is no point in isolating Syria and that dialogue with Damascus is required at some points.”

“You will see a growing consensus, not only among the GCC countries but in the Arab world, that the status quo is unsustainable,” he said at the Munich Security Forum.

The Emirates, which normalized its relations with the Syrian regime, also sent its foreign minister, Abdullah bin Zayed, on February 12 to Damascus and met with the head of the regime, Bashar al-Assad.

The writer and political analyst Joyce Karam confirmed that the international failure at the level of aid and relief in Syria is unjustified, as it will pave the way for some countries to reopen their bridges with Bashar al-Assad.

Karam says that Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s contact with Assad will accelerate the train of Arab normalization with his regime, but on the other hand, Western countries are still insisting they will not send aid through him.

Damascus is counting first on regional normalization, specifically Arab and Turkish, according to Karam.

Regarding al-Assad’s return to the Arab world, Karam explained that Jordan and the UAE pushed for that, with Saudi Arabia and Egypt reserving as a result of Arab pressure.

However, with the earthquake, Damascus may be invited back to the Arab world as a matter of assistance and reconstruction, according to her discretion.

 

Temporary Stage

On the other hand, the United States and European countries are still taking a strict stance against the Syrian regime, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed on February 10 that his country is determined to provide aid to the Syrian people, not to the regime in Damascus.

The earthquake was preceded by the United States confirming in January 2023 that it rejected any step toward normalization with Assad.

State Department spokesman Ned Price said al-Assad committed atrocities, and his forces committed war crimes, and the US will continue to work to hold them accountable and encourage its partners and allies not to normalize with him and to implement Resolution 2254.

The aforementioned resolution calls for the Secretary-General of the United Nations to invite representatives of the Syrian regime and opposition to participate “expeditiously” in formal negotiations on the path of political transition.

Ned Price added that the US has made it clear that it will neither normalize nor support any country that normalizes relations with the Assad regime.

On February 9, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that the political approach taken by Paris toward the Syrian government will not change and that the aid provided to Syria after the devastating earthquake will be through non-governmental organizations and the United Nations mechanism.

Ministry spokesman Francois Delma told reporters in a brief statement that their political approach has not changed and that they work for the benefit of the Syrian people, unlike Bashar al-Assad.

The Syrian researcher, writer, and former activist in the Syrian opposition, Wael Alwan, confirms that the world has noticed that the Syrian regime is dealing with the humanitarian situation with tyranny and criminality.

Alwan said during his interview with Al-Estiklal: “The Syrian regime took advantage of the humanitarian catastrophe to create space for a political movement because it is still isolated, and it may benefit temporarily from the catastrophe, but it will not be able to benefit from the situation strategically.”

He added: “The current stage that the Syrian regime is going through will pass, and everyone will understand that it is unable to change the behavior that was the reason behind the countries’ boycott because it constitutes a threat to the region, not the Syrian people.”

He explains that the Syrian regime will fail to change the international community’s stance and, therefore, will remain politically isolated.

In turn, the Syrian writer and journalist Akil Housain confirms that the regime has already managed to exploit the earthquake in the best possible way politically, and the first benefit it reaped was the exceptions approved by the US administration and the European Union to the sanctions imposed on it.

Hassan said in his interview with Al-Estiklal: “The Syrian regime has been exerting, through its allies, over the past years, all efforts to obtain these exceptions and to put pressure on America to lift the sanctions.”

He believes that political life in Syria after the earthquake will not be the same as before, and it can be said that all countries have plans to change their position.