This Is How the Northern Ireland Protocol Deal Threatens Rishi Sunak’s Leadership

The United Kingdom and the European Union have reached a deal that ends three years of disagreements between London and Brussels on the Northern Ireland Protocol and eases tensions fueled by Brexit.

It was remarkable that former Brexit ministers such as Dominic Raab, David Davis, and Steve Barclay announced their support for the deal that Sunak wants to pass amid widespread criticism from hardliners in the Tory Party and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

Despite the positive impressions expressed by several parties in the British government, Sunak is living critical hours in the face of the revolt of supporters of London leaving the EU in the European Research Group of the Tory Party, which previously contributed to the resignation of Theresa May and David Cameron, due to their positions on the outcome of Brexit.

A survey by the Tory Home website found that Tory activists oppose Sunak’s plan by 41% to 36%.

It is also noteworthy that the deal constitutes the conclusion of a lengthy chapter of painstaking talks between London and Brussels that were managed on the British side by three heads of government and overshadowed by the Ukraine file.

The UK, whose economy is growing weakly and facing the worst cost of living crisis in decades, is seeking to strengthen foreign relations with the aim of improving trade.

 

Windsor Framework

On February 27, 2023, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the conclusion of a long-awaited deal on trade rules with Northern Ireland after Brexit, which the media described as historic.

This came during a meeting held by Sunak with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in Windsor, near London, after painstaking talks that lasted more than a year over the Northern Ireland Protocol, which sparked tension in the province, 25 years after a historic peace agreement that ended three decades of armed conflict.

Sunak praised the deal, considering it a decisive breakthrough and the beginning of a new chapter in the relationship between the UK and the EU, as reported by The Times on February 27, 2023.

He explained that the deal is a turning point for Northern Ireland, which would end the uncertainty about the movement of goods between Britain and the EU.

It is noteworthy that in the framework of Brexit, Britain signed an agreement with Brussels known as the Northern Ireland Protocol to avoid politically tense checkpoints along the 500 km land border with Ireland, a member of the EU.

However, under the protocol, there were restrictions preventing the transfer of some goods from Britain because it kept Northern Ireland in the European single market.

The aim of the new deal is to resolve tensions arising from arrangements over Northern Ireland, a territory among Britain’s territories, after London’s exit from the EU in 2020, and keeping its land borders open with Ireland, which remains a member of the EU.

The Northern Ireland Protocol signed in January 2020 governs the movement of goods between this British territory and the rest of the UK.

To calm the unionists in Northern Ireland, last spring, London had hinted at a unilateral amendment to the agreement, which angered Dublin and Brussels, which warned at the time of the specter of a trade war.

 

Fundamental Changes

The protocol amendment gives the UK the right to veto new EU goods laws, allowing the Northern Ireland parliament to block the implementation of new EU laws, BBC reported on February 28, 2023.

The protocol provides for the establishment of a green corridor free of inspections for goods from across the UK into Northern Ireland, provided that these goods remain within Northern Ireland and are not transferred to the European Economic Community.

It also provides for the establishment of a red corridor designated for goods and merchandise that are transported to the EU through the Irish Sea.

Northern Ireland will also benefit from a value-added tax on food, drink, and medicine like the rest of the UK. Under this protocol, drinks, medicines, and food approved in Britain will be available in Northern Ireland.

The new amendments limited the European Court of Justice’s supervision of the protocol but did not completely abolish it.

The DUP, the largest pro-UK party in Northern Ireland, has yet to announce its final position on the deal. Knowing that it was an essential part of obstructing it two years ago through its insistence on refusing to participate in a power-sharing government in Belfast.

Sinn Fein, the unionist party that calls for reunification with Ireland and won the elections held last year; its leader, Michelle O’Neill, welcomed the deal and called on the DUP to join the rest of the parties and return to political action.

The London government is facing pressure to revive the principle of power-sharing in Belfast, with the approach of the 25th anniversary of the peace agreement concluded in 1998.

On his part, researcher Mohammed Abdulkarim indicated in a statement to Al-Estiklal that the implementation of the new protocol between the UK and the EU is still weak due to its connection to several internal factors, especially in Northern Ireland.

“The DUP is the key to the success of the Windsor Framework, and the historic achievement that Sunak achieved today will not be complete unless the most influential party in Northern Ireland announces its approval of the deal and, therefore, its desire to return to the sharing of executive power,” he said.

“The refusal of 30% of the British MPs to ratify the new protocol could also lead to its suspension,” he explained.

Mr. Abdulkarim pointed out that “the British opposition has expressed its approval of the deal, but fears still surround the right wing of the Tory Party, which could obstruct the deal for political reasons.”

Opinion polls indicate that the majority of the DUP voters do not want to return to executive power unless the protocol is completely abolished, or at least important parts of it are torn apart, and fundamental changes are made.

According to The Times, Rishi Sunak told MPs that he was ready to move forward with the deal, with or without the support of the DUP.

 

Feared Tory Revolt

Some question the prime minister’s ability to convince opposition MPs of the Northern Ireland protocol deal, while others expect the deal to meet the fate of Theresa May’s Chequers proposals, whose rejection by British MPs marked the beginning of the end for her in Downing Street.

Boris Johnson has criticized Rishi Sunak’s efforts to strike a joint deal with the EU on Northern Ireland instead of taking unilateral measures, while informed sources warned that the concessions made by Sunak to Brussels might provoke unexpected reactions from the Tory deputies.

Recently, indications have increased about the possibility of the resignation of the government and MPs close to Sunak, which prompted an MP to warn that the Brexit deal could affect Sunak’s presidency once the MPs and the ministry begin to resign from the government.

Home Secretary Soila Braverman did not wait long, as she threatened to resign if Sunak ignored the bill defended by Johnson, which allows the government to tear up important parts of the protocol, according to i newspaper.

Not only did Sunak today ignore the bill, but the Windsor Framework contains a clause confirming that the bill is suspended forever.

This problem has raised fears of deepening the division in the ranks of the Tory Party again after Sunak succeeded so far in mending the rift and differences between the party’s deputies.

One source told the i newspaper that Sunak may have miscalculated the opposition he would face on the Northern Ireland protocol.

The deal is expected to meet the opposition of dozens of Tory and DUP MPs, especially with regard to the role that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) will play in Northern Ireland, according to the newspaper.

The newspaper revealed that the MPs revolting against Sunak will use their opposition to the new protocol as a means to increase pressure on him, especially after his delay in announcing the promised legal legislation to limit the arrival of immigrants, in addition to the decline in the popularity of the Tories in the last elections compared to the Labour Party.

Tory voter discontent is expected to increase after the upcoming local elections in May, which will be difficult for the Tory Party.

A former Tory minister said, “I think it’s over for Sunak. All opinion polls indicate that party members don’t want him anymore, and everyone rejects Sunak’s continuation in power.”

Despite this, an informed source in the party indicated that any elections for the leadership of the party may be in the interest of Sunak because any vote of no confidence in him will end in his favor.

Many pro-Brexit MPs welcomed the new protocol. Former Brexit Secretary David Davis said Sunak had achieved great success in the negotiations and got the best possible deal.

Meanwhile, former business secretary Andrea Leadsom said the deal represented a huge advance.

In turn, the Minister of Justice and Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab stressed that the deal represents an important achievement for Sunak and that it will provide an important shift and a quantum leap for Northern Ireland.

It is not yet clear whether the British Parliament will vote on the new protocol. Last week, Sunak only said that parliament would be able to express its opinion without giving further details.

Although the Sunak government is not legally required to hold a similar vote, it is currently under unprecedented pressure, and demands are given to grant deputies the right to vote, thus the right to veto, and not just to express an opinion.