After Losing Mali, What Does France’s Loss of Control Over Burkina Faso Mean?

It seems that France’s dominance in Africa, which lasted more than a century, is declining day after day. After withdrawing its forces from Mali, Paris would probably do the same in Burkina Faso.

On February 3, 2023, the leader of the ruling military council in Burkina Faso, Ibrahim Traore, said again he wanted French troops to leave the country, stressing that this does not mean a severance of diplomatic relations with Paris.

Officer Traore came to power in Burkina Faso after he overthrew his former comrade, Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henry Damiba, on September 30, 2022, for not keeping his promise to confront the attacks of armed groups that the country has been witnessing since 2015.

On January 23, 2023, Burkina Faso demanded that French forces leave its territory within a month, according to the News Agency of Burkina Faso (AIB Burkina).

The government of Burkina Faso suspended the agreement that allows French forces to fight militants on its territory.

This suspension of January 18, 2023, gives, under the terms of the agreement of December 17, 2018, one month for the French armed forces to leave the territory of Burkina Faso, the agency stated.

 

Popular Pressure

Recent demands of the ruling military council in Burkina Faso were imposed by popular pressure and protests, which have been escalating to the point of accusing those forces of failing to confront the attacks of armed groups.

These accusations are based, according to observers, on the failure of Paris to bring stability to its areas of presence on the continent. France appeared preoccupied with its interests, which allowed the expansion of armed groups, the deterioration of the economic situation, and the collapse of authoritarian regimes.

This prompted some African countries to try to replace the French role with other competing foreign powers such as China, Russia, and Turkiye.

Calls and demands for France’s withdrawal from Burkina Faso were preceded by a complete withdrawal of Paris from Mali after the deterioration of relations between the ruling military council in Bamako and Paris.

On August 15, 2022, France announced the withdrawal of its last soldiers from Mali, thus ending its army’s mission in this African country after 9 years.

What are the indications for the successive withdrawal of French forces from some African countries? Is it the beginning of the decline of French influence in West Africa? Or are there other reasons?

International relations expert Ahmed Noureddine said: “France is witnessing an economic, cultural, and military decline in its traditional positions in Africa.”

He added, in an interview with Al-Estiklal, that one of the most prominent manifestations of this withdrawal is the decline in its trade exchanges with Africa in favor of China, the United States, India, Brazil, Turkiye, and Japan.

The expert pointed out that “China, for example, has become the first beneficiary of this shift in economic partners with Africa.”

He added that Beijing was able within 22 years to double the value of its exports to Africa by about 33 times, to go from $5 billion in 2000 to $164 billion in 2023.

He mentioned the decline in France’s share of exports to Africa from 12 to 7% during the same period.

The decline of French influence also included the military field. Noureddine pointed to “the forced end of the Barkhane operation and the expulsion of the French forces operating in Mali in a humiliating manner, and then the expulsion of those forces from Burkina Faso and Central Africa.”

On the cultural level, he indicated that some countries, including Rwanda, abandoned the French language in favor of English, as well as other countries leaving the Organization of La Francophonie and joining the British Commonwealth.

 

Cold War

Regarding the factors behind the decline of French influence, Noureddine saw that there are economic factors mainly related to the fierce competition imposed by the market and the offer of Chinese products at low prices.

He added that China was able to impose itself in terms of infrastructure by providing soft and long-term loans without political or human rights conditions, as France and Europe do.

Noureddine warned that there were also political factors that contributed to the beginning of the French retreat. He said: “A wave of anti-French presence appeared, which may be motivated by local motives linked to an African awakening against the exploitation of their wealth and against colonial crimes that continued even after independence.”

He also suggested the possibility of other external factors, such as media campaigns on social media aimed at fueling feelings of hatred against France.

“It is believed that Russia in the first place, or China in the second degree, is behind that, in order to replace the French influence with theirs.”

He emphasized that all these factors led to louder voices calling for a break from the colonial legacy of France and openness to other countries with which trade relations are based on respect, interests, and mutual profit.

Although China does not stipulate respect for the principles of democracy and human rights when it offers long-term loans, it does, in return, require contracts for the exploitation of ports, for example, or new oil fields, or to supply its industry with raw materials.

The expert added that China also provides soft loans or low interest for major facilities such as bridges, railways, roads, and dams, but on the condition that these deals are given from A to Z to Chinese companies.

On the other hand, Noureddine explains that Russia’s approach to the African continent is primarily military, as it provides weapons and experts “for free” and sends Russian Wagner militias to protect some regimes or to confront local fighting or separatist groups, as is the case in the Republic of Mali, for example.

He added: “But in return, Russia has taken control of some precious metal mines, and it may obtain military deals that enhance its position as the first source of weapons to Africa.”

Noureddine concluded that Africa has once again become an arena for the Cold War and for conflict between the superpowers and the rising powers because of its natural and energy resources and precious minerals and because it is still a virgin continent in need of huge investments in infrastructure in all sectors.

He stressed that Africa will play a role in giving an impetus to the growth rates of the global economy after the recent recession.

Thus, any country controlling African markets will control global economic growth during the first half of the twenty-first century.

 

New Calculations

If Noureddine believes that the successive withdrawals of France from African countries are the beginning of the decline of Paris’s influence in the continent, political science professor Ismail Hammoudi saw that France’s military presence had become costly, which prompted it to “redeploy and make new calculations.”

Hammoudi added, in his interview with Al-Estiklal, that “any talk of a French retreat needs scrutiny,” suggesting that the growing African rejection of the French presence might be “a dynamic that needs time to judge and evaluate its effects.”

He stressed that if there are some new African military elites that appear as if they are facing French influence, they are still unable to adjust the balance of power in their favor.

In his explanation of the reasons for the new calculations of Paris, Hammoudi explained that the military presence in West African countries has become costly for France, whether on the human level, i.e., the number of deaths, or with regard to financing, especially in light of this current global crisis.

He added that, in addition to the human and financial costs, “France’s military presence contributed to some extent in reviving a national liberation tendency in African countries,” given that the French soldiers stationed in these countries reminded them of French colonialism.

Also, the Arab and Islamic forces in some African countries are considering the French military presence as “a new card to put pressure on governments and regimes.”

Thus, “this French military deployment revived the liberating national African position from the French influence, which seemed to appear to them as a new colonizer.”

Hammoudi believes that these three factors will push Paris to make new calculations for redeployment in African regions where there are economic interests.

He stressed that France alone is not able to secure conditions and guarantee peace in the entire West African region.

Therefore, it started with new calculations aimed at military presence in the areas of its interests, such as focusing on Niger for its uranium and the Gulf of Guinea for its oil and gas.