Aging Threatens the Future of Europe — Is the Arrival of Immigrants the Solution?

With the world’s population exceeding 8 billion, the European continent retains the title of the old continent due to it being the most aging in the world, which is witnessing an increasing number of elderly people.

This was recently confirmed by the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, when he said that the demographic winter in Europe (referring to aging) had reached record levels compared to the rest of the world, calling on European countries to take advantage of the current immigration benefits.

For the first time in its contemporary history, Europe is facing a strange paradox represented by the growth of far-right parties hostile to immigrants and, at the same time, the increasing need to bring in millions of foreigners in order to maintain the vitality of the economic wheel.

On the other hand, observers believe that increased migration and high fertility rates are not sufficient to change the course of aging that is creeping up on society in Europe, and therefore there must be a strategy to avoid a catastrophe.

 

Old Continent

The old continent is a term used by many for Europe due to the high average age of its citizens and the small number of newborns compared to the high number of the elderly.

According to the latest global census of the population, Europe contains the largest number of elderly people in the world, as the number of people over the age of sixty years reached one billion, 20% of whom live in Europe.

Germany is the country that contributes the most to the number of elderly people in Europe, with 17.78 million, Italy with 13.76 million, France with 13.16 million, and England with 12.24 million.

By 2050, the number of centenarians (aged 100 and over) in the European Union is expected to reach half a million people, and the average life expectancy will reach 48.2 years, according to Statista data.

European countries attract immigrants to increase the number of newborns and compensate for the shortage in various professional fields, most notably the healthcare sector.

Until January 2021, 5.3% of the EU population were immigrants who were not yet naturalized.

Regarding this, Spanish diplomat Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, stated during a television interview with the French LCI channel about the waves of migration towards Europe, saying: “Whether we are happy or sad, the demographic winter in Europe [the aging of European societies] has reached record levels compared to the rest of the world.”

In his statements, Borrell considered that receiving immigrants could compensate for the deficit in the birth rate in the northern countries, stressing the need to regulate the matter, which highlights the recent strict policies of governments towards migration.

He added, “Some European societies prefer aging and annihilation to a mixture of races,” which disturbed many who believe that there is a differentiation in races.

He said, “While other societies consider that an organized and controlled external contribution is necessary to increase the number of births,” referring to the contribution of newcomers to increasing the number of births in society.

It is noteworthy that the increase in the proportion of people over the age of 65 years of the total population of Europe, and the shrinking number of children in each family, has made the aging of European societies a demographic time bomb that threatens extinction.

The figures indicate that in 1950, only 12% of the European population was at the age of 65, but today that percentage has doubled. Expectations indicate that in 2050 this percentage will become more than 36%, which means one thing: Europe is getting old.

This is due to fertility rates and longevity. In the past, on average, every woman in Europe had more than two children, but since 2000 the fertility rate has fallen even lower.

Europeans are also living longer now, reaching 78 years on average, up from 66 years in the 1950s.

In Brussels in 2015, the Secretary-General of the United Nations at the time, Ban Ki-moon, said: “The equation is clear: to meet its workforce deficit and maintain its economic dynamism, Europe needs immigrants.”

In 2018, Josep Borrell, when he was Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs, said: “We need new blood if we do not want to turn into an old continent.”

 

Great Replacement

Josep Borrell’s recent statements, in which he asserted that receiving immigrants is the best solution to the crisis of aging societies in Europe, were widely criticized in the old continent, specifically in France.

European right-wing activists criticized Borrell’s statements, stressing that they aim to give more transparency to the so-called great replacement theory, warning of a conspiracy against the European race.

The Great Replacement theory, rooted in racist nationalism, credits a small elite with plotting against French and white Europeans, with the goal of eventually replacing them with non-Europeans from Africa and the Middle East, mostly Muslims.

The emergence of this theory dates back to 1900, when the father of French nationalism, Maurice Barres, spoke of a new people who would seize power, win and destroy his homeland.

In an article published in the daily newspaper Le Journal, he wrote: “The name of France may survive, but the special character of our country will be destroyed, and those installed in our name and on our lands will be directed towards goals contradictory to those and needs of our land and our dead.”

Commenting on Borrell’s statements, one of the respondents considered that the solution he offers is tantamount to suicide, while far-right activist Marie Falicon said: “Replacing the population, whether we like it or not, it is the truth.”

Eric Kaufmann, author of Whiteshift and professor of politics at Birkbeck College, University of London, told Yahoo News: “There’s a relationship between the demographic change through migration and the rise of the populist right in Western Europe.

“The number of Europeans saying migration is a top issue really rises along with rising migration numbers, and then the populist right rises along with that,” he adds.

 

Negative Effects

Many EU countries are now on the verge of slipping into a period of population decline.

With the exception of France, the 27 most populous European Union member states, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Poland, are all entering a period of population decline.

The total population of the EU is expected to decrease from 444 million in 2021 to 421 million in 2050 and 389 million in 2070.

Ten years ago, Angela Merkel famously warned that the European social model was becoming unsustainable.

“If Europe today accounts for just over seven percent of the world’s population, produces about 25% of global GDP, and has to finance 50% of global social spending, it is clear that it will have to work hard to maintain prosperity and lifestyle,” Merkel said.

Absent a major boost to productivity, aging will affect growth as the working-age population declines.

At the same time, aging societies will place increasing fiscal demands on government social spending.

 According to experts in the EU and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the old continent may be able to mitigate the negative effects of aging through government policies, such as increasing labor force participation, raising the retirement age, and making use of immigrants who are already there to the greatest extent possible.

But in the view of others, in the medium and long term, the EU will need to attract a large number of skilled workers from outside its borders and overcome public opposition to them, which is highlighted by the apparent rise of populist anti-immigrant political parties.

However, such policies are politically difficult, as large increases in migration are likely to lead to fears of a lack of community cohesion, right-wing activists claim.

 

Demographic Time-Bomb

The current narrative about the aging of Europe suggests that there is a bleak future awaiting Europeans as many fear a decline in living standards in light of the increasing number of people relying on social services, or the explosion of a demographic time bomb, as The Financial Times put it in its report on January 13, 2020.

Acknowledging this concern at the time, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appointed a vice president for democracy and population affairs with the aim of launching a three-year inquiry into aging and the EU’s demographic future.

On January 24, 2020, Nicholas Gailey noted in his article in the American magazine Foreign Policy that discussions about how to solve the problem of aging in Europe gained prominence during the European refugee crisis in 2015, noting that many had argued that new migration was necessary to maintain social systems in Europe.

The author continued: “The results of the investigation, published in June 2019, illustrate an established fact, which is that increased migration rates or higher fertility rates will not change the mass shift towards an aging society and a weak workforce.”

Regardless of the policies adopted by European countries over the next decade, Gailey ruled out any possibility of truly saving Europe from its old age, noting that in the long term, migration may have limited effects on population aging because newcomers will inevitably become old, adding more to the working and non-working population over time.

“Even if EU countries overcome their different views and unite behind an open-minded approach to immigration like Canada is doing, absorbing more than 100 million people by 2060, life expectancy in Europe will continue to climb,” he added.