Why Is the Opposition Reluctant to Nominate Kilicdaroglu for Turkiye's Presidential Elections?

About 8 months before the presidential elections, which are described as crucial in Turkiye, a feverish atmosphere overshadowed the discussions of the opposition forces to choose a joint candidate to face President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose popularity has increased remarkably in recent weeks.

A few days ago, a major rift emerged in what has become known as the Six-Party Table of the opposition after statements made by the leader of the Good Party, Meral Aksener. She had reservations about the insistence of her closest ally, the Republican People's Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu, on the need to push him as a joint candidate in the presidential elections against Erdogan.

The Six-Party Table is an alliance of 6 opposition parties: the CHP headed by Kilicdaroglu, the Good Party by Aksener, Democracy and Progress headed by Ali Babacan, the Future headed by Ahmet Davutoglu, Happiness headed by Temel Karamollaoglu, and the Democrat headed by Gultekin Uysal.

On more than one occasion, Kilicdaroglu confirmed his desire to run for the presidential elections in the summer of 2023, but the consensus on his name is still controversial for many reasons that are summarized in the fact that he does not have the necessary capabilities to confront Erdogan, the candidate for the People's Alliance, which includes the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the National Movement (MHP).

 

Big Noise

In a move that surprised public opinion in Turkiye, the opposition leader, head of its largest party, Kilicdaroglu, launched on September 23, 2022, an invitation to opposition forces in general and to members of his party in particular, asking them to show their position on his candidacy for the upcoming presidential elections.

Kilicdaroglu, 73, said at a party conference in Izmir: "I am determined to continue on this path, and nothing can deviate me from it, and I am confident that through this struggle, we will defeat the enemies of the people."

He added, "But now I have to know... are you really with me? Some of you are silent, and this does me a lot of harm, so they decide now."

It was remarkable that immediately after this speech, the mayors of Ankara, Mansur Yavas, and Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, announced their support for Kilicdaroglu. Although they were both prominent presidential candidates, Aksener supported them to run in this race against Erdogan.

The mayor of Ankara tweeted, "We will always be by your side for tomorrow and a happy future for Turkiye."

The same applies to Imamoglu, who wrote: "I am always with our president, Kilicdaroglu, and in all circumstances."

Observers believed that with this step, Kilicdaroglu closed the door for candidacy for the presidency in the CHP, and it also sent a strong message to the Six-Party Table in this regard.

In response to this message, the head of the Democratic and Progress Party, Babacan, said that "the Six-Party Table did not specify its presidential candidate, and we consider Kilicdaroglu's invitation as a message to his party only."

"We are going to an election in which one party is unlikely to succeed, that's why we are aiming for a joint candidate," he added during press statements on September 26.

Babacan stressed that "it is a very critical process, because according to the current constitutional system, we will witness a transitional period in which we must govern the country before switching from a presidential system to a strengthened parliamentary system. We would prefer that the joint candidate announce the road map for the transition process."

However, the strongest response came from Aksener, referring to Kilicdaroglu's assertion at the formation of the Six-Party Table in February 2022 that "the presidential candidate will be determined through it."

She said, "He is the one who assigned the table this task and committed himself to it, so we are not a notary who will endorse what he says."

She added, during an interview with Haber Turk channel on September 27, that "Kilicdaroglu has the right to run for office, and the other leaders of the table have the right to do so as well. I am the only one who said I will not run, but what is required is a candidate who can win."

Aksener pointed out that "the presidential candidate may be from the CHP, but the important thing is to ensure victory."

 

Different Visions

On his part, Turkish journalist Caglar Cilara, in a tweet via Twitter, said that Aksener responded through these statements to Kilicdaroglu's message and that by focusing on the indication of a candidate who can win, it opened the way to talk about other options and nominations.

While the famous writer close to the AKP, Abdulkadir Selvi, described Aksener's statements in an article in Hurriyet newspaper on September 29 as an earthquake that shook the Six-Party Table and even amounted to a bomb that might explode this alliance completely.

"These statements made the claims of this table to the people that it is the hope of Turkiye and Erdogan's alternative, evaporating before even the start of the elections, its members started quarreling and shaking their fingers at each other through the media, so how will these people manage the state when they reach power?" he added.

Selvi explained that Kilicdaroglu almost finished the issue of running for the presidency, and it remains only to announce this through the meeting of the Six-Party Table on October 2, 2022, but Aksener spoiled it for him, noting to her role in preventing the candidacy of former Turkish President Abdullah Gul for the presidency in 2018, and pushing the candidate Muharrem Ince.

This has already been achieved, as the Six-Party Table held its seventh meeting on that day at the headquarters of the CHP, and the meeting ended without reaching an agreement on the name of the joint candidate to run for the presidential race.

"These developments will determine the fate of the Six-Party Table and will have an impact on the results of the presidential elections, and after this stage, the chances of coming up with a joint candidate for the table weakened, in light of Kilicdaroglu's insistence on his candidacy," Selvi stressed.

On the details of these differences, writer Zafer Sahin explained in an article in Milliyet newspaper on September 27 that Kilicdaroglu's insistence on running for the candidacy annoys Aksener, since if she supports him, she will not be able to unite her party, and if she leaves the table, she will be accused of scattering the alliance, and she will bear the responsibility if the opposition fails in the elections.

The majority of the Nationalist Good Party members object to the relations established by Kilicdaroglu between the CHP and the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party, which is known for its association with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Turkiye classifies as a terrorist and separatist.

"Kilicdaroglu succeeded in recent days in withdrawing the papers of Yavas and Imamoglu from Aksener's hand and declaring their support for him, but she keeps these two names on the agenda for bargaining power," Sahin pointed out.

He added that Aksener's task is very difficult due to the fear that she will not be able to maintain her party if Kilicdaroglu becomes the joint candidate for the Six-Party Table, but he pointed out at the same time that she might eventually support him, obliged, after holding him political and popular responsibility for his decision.

 

Leader Character

In its analysis on September 14, Deutsche Welle (DW) highlighted the most prominent opposition candidates who may face Erdogan in the upcoming presidential race.

"Kilicdaroglu is currently the frontrunner in the competition. Under his leadership, the CHP achieved a historic victory in the municipal elections in 2019, as the party's candidates won in Ankara and Istanbul, which the AKP has dominated for decades," it said.

"But Kilicdaroglu's critics doubt his ability to defeat Erdogan, in light of the many losses that the latter inflicted on him throughout his presidency of the CHP since 2010, and before that, he lost himself in the Istanbul mayoral elections in 2009 before the AKP," it added.

"Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu is also a possible candidate, but it is accepted that during crises or disasters that occurred during his term, he was on vacation, which public opinion strongly criticized," it noted.

As for the mayor of the capital, Ankara, Yavas, it said that "he is a Turkish nationalist, which distances him from the Kurdish voters and deprives him of their votes, which are very important in the elections, but despite that, it is not excluded that many people vote for him due to the absence of alternatives."

DW pointed out that "what is not in the interest of the candidates, Imamoglu and Yavas, is that they have to leave their position, which means that the opposition will lose the Istanbul and Ankara administration because the AKP has the majority in the council of the two cities, and therefore the mayor will be elected from among its ranks."

While the director of the Istanbul Institute for Political Research, Seren Selvin Korkmaz, confirmed that the personality of the leader plays an important role in Turkish political culture, adding that what matters to people above all is the leader and what he says.

"It is expected that the name of Erdogan's rival candidate will be announced at the beginning of next year, and whoever he is, he has a chance to win, provided that he is really the only candidate for the opposition and that this fragile Six-Party alliance continues at least until the June 2023 elections," she added to DW.

For the past 12 years, the AKP has succeeded in attaching negative images to Kilicdaroglu's personality, the most important of which is that it is affiliated with the West and supports separatists and terrorists, in addition to being affiliated with the Alevi sect, which means that the broad conservative Turkish segment will not vote for him.

In a similar analysis of the proposed candidates for the presidential race, The Financial Times said: "Some opposition voices fear Kilicdaroglu's insistence on running to compete with Erdogan, noting that the Turkish president will eat him alive."

It quoted a senior official of one of the other five opposition parties in the Six-Party Table on May 4, 2022, that Kilicdaroglu is dying for the candidacy, adding that there is no doubt that he will be the best potential candidate, but his chance of winning is low.

 

Growing Popularity

While the opposition faces all these challenges, Turkish polling centers, even those affiliated with the opposition, reveal a noticeable increase in President Erdogan's popularity thanks to the diplomatic successes and the strong regional image that he has gained for his country in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine since February 24, 2022.

The Metropol Research Center confirmed in early October 2022 that the percentage of satisfaction with Erdogan's leadership and his presidential performance is witnessing a noticeable increase, while the percentage of his critics is declining.

It explained that the percentage of his supporters at the end of September 2022 amounted to about 47%, an increase of about 3% over the previous month.

The center also revealed that if elections are held in early October 2022, the AKP will lead the results by 29%, and rise to 33.6% when hesitant votes are distributed.

The CHP came second with a percentage of 21.4%, and it rose to 24.8% when hesitant votes were distributed.

In this context, writer Bulent Erandac asserted in an article he published in Takvim newspaper, that the world order that was established after the First World War has ended, and the People's Alliance led by Erdogan is currently seeking to make Turkiye more great and powerful in the new world order.

However, he added, "While the Six-Party Table led by Kilicdaroglu and the HDP is behind it, its eyes are directed to the West and America."

Kilicdaroglu will start a visit to the United States from October 9 to 13, 2022, in order to meet with a group of members of the US Congress, according to a statement by the CHP.

Erandac stated that "while Erdogan is making geopolitical moves within the framework of his vision to make the current century the century of Turkiye, the Six-Party Table is seeking to obstruct this, and here is Kilicdaroglu going to America to obtain a license for his plan."

He concluded by saying, "The Turkish people will not stand with those looking at America, and will not abandon President Erdogan in the middle of the road. Turkiye now has a great leader, and it is not just a pawn as it used to be, and the people are well aware of that."