Is Russia Using Migrants in Eastern Libya as a Weapon Against Italy?

An Italian parliamentary committee confirms that the increase in migrants coming from eastern Libya toward the coasts of its country is related to Russia's efforts to influence the elections

Observers believe that it is likely that Moscow played a role in bringing down the Draghi government, which reduced Italy's dependence on Russian gas from 40 to 25 percent.

Opinion polls tend to expert the extreme right to win during the next Italian elections because it will serve Russia's strategy to break European support for Ukraine and lift sanctions against it

Italian accusations of Russia using irregular migrants in eastern Libya as an electoral weapon against it have turned from a political debate to a parliamentary confirmation, despite Moscow's denials.

 

Decisive Moment

The parliamentary elections in Italy, scheduled for next September 25, will be decisive in determining the nature of the relationship with Russia. The right-wing party's victory would be in Russia's interest to break the European sanctions imposed on Moscow.

The report of the Parliamentary Committee for the Security of Italy (COPASIR) confirms the existence of a relationship between the increase in the number of migrants leaving the Cyrenaica region in eastern Libya and the Kremlin's comprehensive strategy to pressure the European Union countries, especially those that are going through an election phase.

The Cyrenaica region in eastern Libya is under the control of the forces of retired Major General Khalifa Haftar, and at the same time, mercenaries of the Russian Wagner company are deployed.

The parliamentary report supports the Italian newspaper, La Repubblica, about a possible role for Wagner in increasing the flows of migrants from Libya, especially from its eastern coasts, which were not previously a starting point for Italy due to the geographical distance.

The coasts of the east of Libya were not famous as a way to migrate towards Europe, despite their proximity to the southern coasts of Greece, although the Italian coasts are farther, so immigrants prefer to travel by land or even by air if they can towards the Libyan west, and from there they take boats towards Italy.

Surprisingly, irregular migrants from eastern Libya move directly towards the Italian coast, despite the distance and the alternative of a closer road.

These questions lead the Italian security services, according to the local media and the parliamentary committee, to believe that the Wagner company has a connection with the rise of immigrants from eastern Libya in conjunction with the country's preparations to go to elections.

 

Mixed War

The Italian government denies the existence of a relationship between the flow of migrants from eastern Libya towards the southern coasts of Italy and between Wagner and its attempt to influence the elections.

According to the Undersecretary of the Italian Ministry of the Interior, Nicola Molteni, from the beginning of the year until the 29th of last July, 21,507 migrants arrived from Libya to Italy from Tripoli (west).

But this comparison is not correct because it is related to an increase in the number of migrants from eastern Libya since the beginning of the year compared to July 29.

Knowing that Molteni is a leader in the Italian far-right League party led by former Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, it is clear that his statement is political and does not represent Mario Draghi's caretaker government.

It is clear that the massive influx of immigrants to Italy is in the interest of the right-wing parties, led by the anti-foreign League, which may enable it to win more votes and seats and return again to head the government.

While the investigation conducted by the Parliamentary Committee proved through hearings with internal and external intelligence services that more migrants are leaving Cyrenaica.

In its report to the deputies and senators, the commission came to the conclusion that immigration pressure is one of Russia's means of warfare in an attempt to create a real strategy of chaos.

The "mixed war" that the report talks about refers to Europe's accusation of Russia of using the "blockade" of the Ukrainian grain export ports, reducing gas supplies, and then using the migrants' card to cause chaos in European countries, especially those coming to fateful elections like Italy.

 

Right-Wing Parties Bet

Moscow is betting on the victory of right-wing parties in the upcoming parliamentary elections and on the Republican Party obtaining a majority in the midterm elections for the US Congress to shake up the European and American position on the Russian war in Ukraine to reach the purpose of breaking Western sanctions against it.

Dmitry Suslov, director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS) at the Moscow Higher School of Economics (HSE), predicts that the West's collective position will change early next year regarding military support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.

This is not the first time that the West has accused Russia of interfering in the electoral process, as US security and political bodies have previously accused Moscow of influencing the 2016 presidential elections, which Republican Donald Trump won against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Therefore, the parliamentary committee's report emphasized that Russia's "chaos strategy" should be evaluated very seriously, warning that Italy risks being a potential victim.

These reports intersect with other accusations of Russia playing a role in bringing down the Draghi government after local media leaked that Salvini, the leader of the League party, had met with a senior Russian diplomatic official (which she did not mention) in Rome in the days leading up to the fall of the Italian government.

It also revealed that former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi had a lengthy call with the Russian ambassador on the eve of the sudden shift in his position after he had announced his full support for Draghi's stay in the prime ministership until the end of the legislative term.

 

European Concern

This situation worries Europeans about Russia's ability to overthrow the government of the third largest economy in the European Union, as Draghi has been a hawk who has been enthusiastic and encouraged to impose sanctions on Russia.

In a short period of time, Draghi was able to reduce his country's dependence on Russian gas from 40 to 25 percent in a few months, thanks to his agreement with Algeria to increase its gas supplies and his talks with other countries such as Qatar, Angola, Congo, and Mozambique.

On the day of the fall of the Draghi government, the European Commission spokesman said that there was intelligence information confirming that Russia was attempting to destabilize the EU countries by influencing the internal policies of member states.

On July 21, Draghi submitted his government's resignation after losing the majority in Parliament, and President Sergio Mattarella decided to dissolve Parliament and call for early elections.

Several polls put the right-wing coalition led by the Brothers of Italy party led by Georgia Meloni in the lead to win the upcoming elections.

Italy has turned into a new arena of conflict between Russia and the United States and its European allies, and if the right-wing parties win the leadership of the government, it will be a victory for Russia and the loss of Ukraine to one of its European allies after the fall of the government of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

At the same time, the conflict in Libya will intensify, especially after Wagner's mercenaries turned its east and south into a spearhead in its hybrid attack on Europe's soft southern flank, with the possibility of Libyan oil turning into another weapon in the hands of the Russians, within what the Italians call mixed war.