Iran’s Murder Plots Complicate Biden’s Path to Nuclear Deal

Criticisms and controversy have been strengthened in Washington over what might happen with the revival of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which is at stake; after revealing an Iranian plot to assassinate former US National Security Adviser John Bolton, who is known for his strong opposition to the nuclear deal, Politico magazine reported on August 12, 2022.

The above also comes in conjunction with the stabbing incident against British writer Salman Rushdie and after the recent arrest of a man suspected of being part of an Iranian attempt to kidnap the Iranian-American journalist and critic of the Tehran regime Masih Alinejad.

Critics of US President Joe Biden's policy believe that revealing Tehran's involvement in assassination or kidnapping attempts on US soil at this particular time does not serve the attempts to revive the nuclear deal.

Analysts believe that Tehran is aware of the need of the West, especially the Europeans, for its oil and gas due to the aggravation of the global energy crisis as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Therefore, despite its definite need to lift sanctions, it finds itself in a relatively comfortable negotiating situation, especially with the aggravation of its economic crisis, which has raised an alarming public resentment.

 

Iranian Plots

The United States recently revealed that former US National Security Adviser John Bolton was the target of an Iranian assassination plot prepared by a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, which analysts say may affect a settlement in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers.

Journalist Nahal Toosi wrote in Politico magazine that US President Joe Biden is at a loss with the approach of a deal to revive the deal, and what was reported about an Iranian plot to kill Bolton is not considered a helping factor.

On its part, the US Department of Justice said in a statement that Shahram Borsafi, 45, also known as Mehdi Rezaei, offered to pay $300,000 to people in the United States to kill Bolton, likely in retaliation for the US killing of al-Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in January 2020.

Soleimani was a key figure in Iranian politics and the Middle East, and his killing exacerbated high tensions between Iran and the United States and raised fears of retaliation by Iranian forces.

In an article in the Washington Post on August 15, 2022, John Bolton spoke about the Iranian plot that aimed to assassinate him, criticizing the Biden administration's policy on confronting Tehran.

Bolton, who is considered the architect of US sanctions on Tehran in 2018, considered the Iranian government a liar, a terrorist, and an enemy of the United States, calling on US President Joe Biden not to return to the nuclear deal.

Bolton's case came after a man with a Kalashnikov rifle loaded with ammunition was arrested outside the home of journalist Masih Alinejad, a prominent critic of the Iranian regime, in Brooklyn, New York, which happened about a year after a US federal court in Manhattan accused four Iranian agents of plotting to kidnap Alinejad.

On August 12, 2022, British writer Salman Rushdie, whom the Iranian government has been seeking for years to kill because of his writings it considers blasphemous, was stabbed during a public event in New York, in an incident that sparked speculation that Tehran was connected to the incident.

Rushdie faced numerous death threats, including a fatwa from Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, calling for his assassination on February 14, 1989.

The US State Department recently notified Congress that it is paying to protect former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former US envoy for Iran Brian Hook, both of whom face serious and credible threats from Tehran.

A source close to former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo revealed that the US Department of Justice directly informed the latter that he was also one of the targets, according to what Axios website reported on August 10, 2022, adding that Iran had paid $1 million to assassinate the former US Secretary of State.

Iranian officials typically deny targeting specific Americans and Iranian dissidents living abroad, although these allegations date back many years.

On his part, Assistant US Attorney Matthew Olsen said it is not the first time that Iranian plots to retaliate against individuals on US soil have been exposed.

"The Iranian regime's history is full of attempts to assassinate opponents outside its borders, and it is currently accused of kidnapping dissidents living abroad and forcibly returning them to Iran for trial and possibly execution," Olsen added.

Notably, the Iranian regime had assassinated Ali Akbar Tabatabaei in the early eighties in Washington, tried to assassinate Mansour Farhang on US soil, and assassinated Jamshid Sharmahd in California.

According to the US State Department report, since the 1979 revolution, Iran's regime has carried out 360 assassinations and terrorist attacks in 40 countries around the world.

 

Reviving the Nuclear Deal

So far, Joe Biden is showing no signs that he will abandon efforts to revive the nuclear deal, according to Politico.

The White House spokesman stated that President Biden believes diplomacy is the best way to ensure that Iran will never obtain nuclear weapons.

At the same time, he added, the Biden administration will not waiver in protecting and defending all Americans against threats of violence and terrorism.

A US official familiar with the case said the Biden administration was well-aware of the challenges posed by Iran, in addition to the nuclear threat.

On the other hand, Iran expressed its astonishment at Western reports that claimed that former US National Security Adviser John Bolton was the target of assassination at an earlier time, in conjunction with the attack on the writer Salman Rushdie, according to IRNA news agency on August 13, 2022.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry described the US accusations as political, stressing that they are without correct evidence and necessary documents.

On August 11, 2022, diplomats from the European Union proposed important new concessions to Tehran, which are aimed at promptly ending a UN investigation into past nuclear activities, the Wall Street Journal reported on August 11, 2022.

Iran has waived the demand to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the US terrorist list, in addition to abandoning its demands for guarantees that the future US president will not withdraw from the deal as Trump did previously, which gives new hopes for the signing of an agreement between Washington and Tehran in the coming days.

In turn, the US special envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, stressed, via Twitter, that any US sanctions will not be lifted before the signing of a new nuclear agreement.

This comes as Iranian media, quoting diplomats, said that Tehran may accept European proposals in the final negotiations in Geneva if Tehran is given reassurance on various issues.

It is noteworthy that the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal in May 2018 and re-imposed economic sanctions on Tehran, which responded by abandoning some of the restrictions on its nuclear activity stipulated in the deal.

Indirect talks are taking place between Washington and Tehran with the aim of reviving the nuclear deal, signed in 2015, between Iran and the major international powers (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council + Germany).

Recent developments in the United States have reinforced the view of those who reject the nuclear deal, both Democrats and Republicans, who say that the Iranian government simply cannot be trusted and that any settlement with it must include its malign activities as well as its nuclear ambitions.

In turn, Texas Republican Representative Michael McCaul, a House Foreign Affairs Committee member, tweeted that "the Biden administration should withdraw from the nuclear negotiations and prioritize protecting Americans."

On its part, journalist Alinejad called on the United States to exert more pressure on Iran by expelling its diplomats who serve in the Iranian mission to the United Nations.

 

Biden's Priorities

In an analysis published by Bloomberg, American writer Bobby Ghosh believes that Iran's regime has a long, dishonorable history of assassination plots against dissidents and detractors abroad.

Ghosh says that the revelation of an attempt to assassinate a former national security adviser on US soil should be a strong reminder to the current US president of the evil that characterizes Tehran; at a time when Biden's attempts to reach a nuclear deal with Iran may enrich and encourage those behind this plot.

It is noteworthy that President Biden had put his country's return to the nuclear deal among his foreign policy priorities.

After several rounds of negotiations in Vienna, the United States and Iran are now looking at the final text submitted by European mediators to reach a new agreement aimed at reviving the original deal.

If the two sides reach an agreement, Western sanctions will be lifted, giving Tehran a chance to obtain hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen assets and oil revenues.

Like former US President Barack Obama, who reached the nuclear deal in 2015, Biden seems to believe that if Iran's leaders are allowed to make money, it will reduce their aggression against their Arab neighbors and the United States, in addition to boosting trade and decreasing terrorism.

Ghosh believes the opposite is likely to happen, as he says that in the years since the JCPOA was implemented, Iran has ramped up its material support for a network of terrorist militias it uses to threaten the Middle East and international trade.

He believes that "Biden's repeated assertions of his sincere desire to revive the nuclear deal, and his administration's complacency in implementing the sanctions imposed by Trump, were met with bad faith by Iran."

Ghosh asserts, "Iran's behavior has become more aggressive, at a time when it was getting billions of dollars from oil exports that were made in violation of sanctions."

"Iran has accelerated uranium enrichment and has escalated hostage-taking by targeting people with Western passports, in particular," he said.

Iran has also increased its ambition to carry out international assassinations, most of which are directed at Israeli tourists and diplomats, apparently in retaliation for Israel's assassination of prominent members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards linked to Tehran's nuclear program.

Last June, Turkiye arrested several people tasked with carrying out the assassination of Israeli tourists in the Turkish city of Istanbul.

Ghosh stated that two months ago, Israeli intelligence thwarted a plot prepared by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to assassinate an Israeli diplomat in Turkiye, an American General in Germany, and a French journalist.