Iran Approves Turkish Military Operation in Syria: Why Did It Change its Attitude?
With Turkiye confirming that its new military operation in northeastern Syria could begin at any moment once preparations are completed, Iran has backed away from rejecting Turkiye's move against PKK branches.
The Syrian branch of PKK is the YPG, the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by the U.S.-led international coalition, the armed wing of the Kurdistan Democratic Union (KDP).
Ankara, Washington, and several European capitals classify PKK as a terrorist organization for targeting Turkiye's interior with armed attacks in recent decades and represents the spiritual father of all Kurdish armed organizations in Syria and Iraq that dream of secession and the establishment of a major Kurdistan state.
Tehran's position was abruptly shifted from the Turkish operation announced by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 23, 2022, with the aim of completing the "security belt" at Turkiye's southern border.
Turning Around
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian stressed during a press conference with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu on June 27, 2022, in Ankara, that Turkiye's security concerns in Syria should be allayed "as soon as possible and permanently."
Abdollahian said Iran understands Turkiye's security concerns in Syria very well and has simultaneously put forward a special operation there.
During his recent visit to Tehran, they proposed to Cavusoglu a comprehensive action plan and a roadmap to deepen and improve bilateral relations, he said, expressing Tehran's willingness to move this forward.
Tehran's change of position on the Turkish operation followed Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh's May 29 announcement that "Iran opposes any military action and the use of force on the territory of other countries with a view to resolving differences between the two sides."
Khatibzadeh, quoted by the semi-official Tasnim news agency, promised that a possible military operation by Turkiye would lead to "further complexity and escalation" in Syria.
It became clear that there were several variables that led Tehran not to see Turkiye at least on a second front, parallel to Israel's June 20, 2022, announcement of the establishment of a U.S.-led air military coalition in the Middle East, aimed at confronting Iran.
Jordan's King Abdullah II spoke on June 24 about supporting the creation of NATO Middle East, a top priority in confronting Iran.
Observers say Iran fears that the Turkish–Saudi rapprochement will also affect the situation in Yemen, where Tehran supports the Houthi militia that Riyadh has been fighting since 2015.
Iran's retreat, governed by rapid regional and international developments, put the Syrian regime in an embarrassing position after its president Bashar al-Assad on June 9, 2022, described the possible Turkish operation as an "invasion."
Assad has raised the level of escalation and vowed "popular resistance" against Turkiye, but the reality on the ground confirms that the regime's current military capability is based on Iranian and Russian militias, which will not be able to take such a step without the approval of Tehran and Moscow.
Iranian Disagreement
This demonstrates the state of confusion experienced by the Iranian decision-maker, particularly since eyes are now open to Tehran's presence in Syria, following the Russian repositioning on the ground in some Syrian locations with the direct influence of the Ukraine war.
Turkish and Iranian interests are evident in the fields of energy and trade, with trade between them amounting to less than $7 billion, according to the 2021 Iranian Customs Statistics.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the two countries' presidents had set a target of $30 billion for trade between Tehran and Ankara.
Iran is also in a critical economic situation due to U.S. sanctions since 2018, causing inflation to rise, GDP declines, and price increases, with Iranian citizens bearing the brunt.
While Turkiye relies on Iranian oil and gas, Iranian imports of Turkish goods are important in moving Tehran's markets.
During his meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Cavusoglu noted that Turkiye opposes unilateral sanctions against Iran.
Amar Jello, a writer interested in Iranian affairs, attributed Iran's retreat from its position on the Turkish military operation "to the state of Turkish international prominence and its possession of new power papers that have reached Ankara's speeches by the warring international parties."
"Tehran has not got a deal with Turkiye on the passage of its military operation in Syria, but it is an implicit recognition of the weakness of its current papers on Syrian territory," Jello told Al-Estiklal.
"Tehran is currently at its weakest level in nearly a decade, both internally and regionally and internationally, from the blockage in nuclear negotiations and talk of signs of establishing a regional security alliance that brings together yesterday's parties to counter Iranian threats," he said.
"Tehran is therefore seeking to try to reduce its strained relations with Iran's neighbors, from Saudi Arabia to Turkiye," he said.
Pragmatic Politics
"Tehran is certain that the Turkish operation will not be limited to Syrian geography but will extend to northern Iraq, especially with the proxy war between Iran and Turkiye there using the PUK and PUK parties," he said.
"The vital link in this conflict is the tightening of control over Sinjar because it is the link between Syria and Iraq, so it will either block Tehran if it is under Turkish control or the human and logistical supply route for the Iranian project remains in place," he said.
"Iran's decline was not the result of gains it had hoped for, but rather a careful implementation of a pragmatic and realistic policy in which it could bend against the winds opposed to its interests," he said.
Turkiye is launching its intention to launch a third military operation against the PKK and its fifth in Syria, ending the dream of forming a separatist entity on its southern border within Syrian territory.
Ankara also intends to turn that border strip into a safe area 30 kilometers deep for Syrians fleeing the Assad regime's oppression.
But Turkiye has been hit by the failure of the United States and Russia in 2018 to agree with them on the exit of PKK branches from some areas that hinder the formation of the safe zone.
The strategic city of Manbij, which has been under the SDF forces since August 2016, 80 kilometers from its border, is a "stumbling block" to the completion of the safe zone, but Washington has abandoned its pledges to Ankara to evacuate those elements.
After Turkiye launched Operation Peace Spring on October 9, 2019, concentrated in Hasaka and Raqqa provinces, and the PKK branches were removed 30 kilometers from the Turkish border, Ankara and Washington agreed after the operation to implement their 90-day Map of The Syrian Manbij road in June 2018.
The map ends with SDF leaving the city and handing it over to an elected local council, but Washington has not implemented the agreement and has since stalled and kept the file as a "pressure sheet" on Turkiye, observers said.
