The Food Crises Are Getting Worse – Is the Catastrophe of Hunger Near?

In a recent and shocking report, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned that about 220 million people will face hunger and food insecurity this year as the Russian war in Ukraine continues and its repercussions on the global food market.

The issue does not stop at this warning only; several international bodies, including the United Nations, the European Union, the World Food Program, the US State Department, European aid organizations and others, have warned that the world is facing worsening hunger crises as a result of the Russian war on Ukraine.

On May 20, the British economic magazine, The Economist, published a frightening picture showing ears of wheat bearing skulls, under the title “The Coming Catastrophe,” in a clear indication that the current wheat crisis may lead to global hunger, if it continues for a long time.

 

Serious Food Crises

Western warnings of hunger threatening the world are rising, as a result of the lack of food supplies, which the United States and its European allies, Russia, are holding responsible for, due to its obstruction of Ukrainian agricultural exports, in the context of its ongoing war against the neighboring country.

However, Moscow also does not hesitate to accuse the West of condemning the world to hunger, considering that Western intimidation does not stem from their pity for the world's poor, particularly Africans, but rather out of fear of what awaits the European Union countries next fall.

The developments of the conflict in Ukraine are no longer the main concern that occupies the world today, but rather the repercussions of this war on food supplies, in light of the position of the two warring countries in the global food market, as they are major producers of grain, and together they constitute about 30% of global wheat exports, and 20% of corn exports.

The United Nations announced that global food prices rose by about 30%, compared to what they were in the same period in 2021, while the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, warned of the danger of a global hunger that could last for years.

Gro Intelligence estimates that year-to-date price increases of major food crops have increased the number of food insecure people to 400 million.

In this context, the World Food Program said that “food prices were rising sharply before the Ukrainian crisis, but the impact of the war on global food, fuel and fertilizer supply chains has pushed costs up even more,” adding that fertilizer shortages could hurt the recovery of agricultural production in 2022.

The West took advantage of all these warnings to hold Russia responsible for the coming catastrophe and the rise in prices in global food markets.

On the other hand, Russia presents a refutation of these accusations about its responsibility for the crisis, considering that the food is one of the most prominent weapons it possesses in the face of Western sanctions, and therefore clings to it to the point of blackmailing everyone, including poor countries that suffer from a severe food crisis.

Moscow defends that the policy of sanctions that has affected it is one of the fundamental reasons for the current situation, especially since the sanctions have affected the Russian fertilizer market and by the Belarusian government, and this directly affects agriculture in the countries of the whole world.

It is noteworthy that in 2021 Russia and Belarus produced more than 40% of global exports of potassium, which represents one of the three essential nutrients used to enhance agricultural crop production.

Also, Russia accounted for about 22% of global exports of ammonia, 14% of world exports of urea, and about 14% of mono-ammonium phosphate, all of which are considered major fertilizers.

According to Russian experts, it was the measures taken by 22 countries, including India and Indonesia, to ban or restrict their exports of agricultural crops, which exacerbated the global food security crisis and increased the prices of grains and oils, in addition to the escalation of gas and oil prices, which had a direct role in the increase in the cost of agricultural production globally.

The US Department of Agriculture had revealed that global wheat production would decline to 774.83 million tons in 2022-2023, compared to 779.29 million tons a year ago.

It is noteworthy that the food supply expert Sarah Menker had revealed during a special meeting held by the UN Security Council, on May 19, that “the world is on the verge of a severe food crisis in just nine weeks from now, and the conditions are worse than those experienced in 2007 and 2008.”

This serious warning is supported by numbers confirming that all grain stocks in the world are at their lowest levels in 25 years, except for China, which has enough stocks for a year.

 

Unprecedented Global Hunger

In the same context, the German organization Welthungerhilfe concerned with fighting world hunger and the relief organization Terre des Hommes stressed that development policy is required to respond to the repercussions of wars, the outbreak of the Coronavirus, climate change and the growing hunger catastrophe, by taking concrete measures.

In a joint statement published on June 2, the two organizations confirmed that the international community is facing a global food crisis, and called for the need for the G7, during its meeting this year, to commit its members to initiatives to secure food worldwide.

“We must not allow a recurrence of a hunger crisis like 2007 and 2008, which affected more than one billion hungry people in the world. Securing global nutrition must be the highest political priority,” said Mathias Mogge, the Secretary-General of the German organization.

He stressed the need for the federal government, in cooperation with the G7 countries, to provide an additional $14 billion annually to secure food in order to overcome hunger in the world.

In turn, the World Food Program expressed, in a statement on May 21, its fears of an upcoming hunger crisis at the world level, noting that it may be the most dangerous in modern history in conjunction with turmoil at the global level.

The United Nations had warned, in a statement on May 20, that about 18 million people in the African Sahel region face the risk of severe food insecurity with reduced food rations due to lack of funding.

Last month, Human Rights Watch, the Red Cross and Oxfam warned of food and climate crises as a result of wars, whether between Russia and Ukraine or the Middle East.

On its part, Human Rights Watch published a report last March in which it said: “The Russian invasion of Ukraine exacerbated hunger in the Middle East and North Africa as these two countries are major exporters of agricultural products to many countries in the region.”

It is noteworthy that wheat prices have increased by 60% since last February, while vegetable oil prices have increased by 40%, and food prices have risen to record rates, then came the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which sent prices up again by 12%, making the current food crisis stronger than the two food crises of 2008 and 2011.

In turn, the researcher in political economy Dr. Yahya Syed Omar, in a statement to Al-Estiklal, stated that: “There are real threats of hunger, especially if the current international situation continues as it is or becomes more complex.”

“Hunger occurs in two cases; the first case is when agricultural production is absent or sharply declining, due to climatic disturbances, and the second case is when individuals are unable to access foodstuffs, either because of financial reasons such as high food prices, or because of the lack of food supplies to some countries, despite the presence of financial capacity,” he explained.

“Regarding the current threats of hunger, they are the result of both of the previously mentioned cases, the Russian-Ukrainian war led to a decline in global production, especially of wheat, also led to a rise in food prices, and the lack of flow to other countries,” Dr. Syed Omar indicated.

As for the most factors that led to the rise in food prices around the world, the economic researcher added that “the Russian-Ukrainian war, the resulting inflation, and supply chain crises, are currently the most important reasons for the sharp rise in food prices.”

“History is full of hungers, some of which caused the deaths of millions in the Middle Ages, and some of which killed half the population of some countries, including the Mustansiriya hunger that afflicted the Islamic world in the past, and the hungers that struck Russia, Europe, China and India in the previous two centuries,” Dr. Syed Omar noted.

He concluded by saying: “The current food crisis—if it occurs—may not be the most serious, but any global escalation may make it into a global catastrophe, so global wisdom is currently required from all parties.”