Despite Their Conflicting Positions, How Did the Ukraine War Affect the Turkish–US Relations?

Relations between Turkiye and the United States are swinging despite the need for NATO allies, especially in light of tensions between Washington and Moscow.

In early April 2022, Ankara announced the launch of the Turkish–U.S. Strategic Mechanism in accordance with an understanding reached by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Joe Biden during a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 leaders' summit in Rome, Italy, in October 2021.

 

Positive Approach

The announcement was followed by a positive approach by the U.S. State Department on the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkiye based on NATO relations between the two countries.

In a letter to Congress, the State Department noted Turkiye's importance in having NATO’s second largest army and its services with its NATO allies.

It referred to Turkiye's position on the Russian war on Ukraine and Ankara's support for the territorial integrity of the latter. Its defense cooperation is also a deterrent against what it describes as harmful elements in the region.

The U.S. position has changed, attributed by the State Department to important interests in bilateral relations between the two countries, supported by trade relations in the defense field.

Turkiye has paid a heavy price for sanctions imposed on it for purchasing Russia's S-400 system, it said.

The announced mechanism appears to be opening a new page in relations between the two countries after it worsened since Turkiye signed a deal to buy Russia’s advanced S-400 anti-aircraft missile system on September 12, 2017.

Relations became more strained after Ankara began taking over the S-400 on July 12, 2019.

In December 2020, former U.S. President Donald Trump's administration announced sanctions against Ankara, targeting Turkiye's largest defense industry development body, its president Ismail Demir, and other employees for purchasing the Russian system.

Washington decided to suspend Ankara's participation in the F-35 manufacturing program, which the latter rejected as a manufacturing partner, not just a buyer.

The Turkish side, in the words of Defense Minister Hulusi Aka, said U.S. sanctions on Turkiye are shaking the values of the alliance between the two countries and undermining trust between the two allies.

Ankara says the purchase of the S-400 system is a necessity to maintain Turkiye's security and stability, not a marginal option.

Observers believe that the solution of some of the files between Turkiye and the West in general and the United States in particular comes thanks to the Turkish role in the Ukrainian war crisis politically on the part of the Turkish Bayraktar drones, which showed particular importance in this war on the other.

Western countries are moving to lift sanctions on Turkiye's defense industries because of their positive and influential role in Ukraine’s February 24, 2022, war, which revived NATO and relatively eased the isolation imposed on Turkiye years ago, according to a report by the U.S. monitor.

The report, published in early April, said Russia's war on Ukraine had brought Turkiye's role in NATO back into the spotlight, prompting Erdogan to try to make the best use of it.

According to analysis, several factors that have emerged for Turkiye's role in Russia’s war on Ukraine could lead to a change in the balance in Turkish–U.S. relations.

Most notably, Turkiye's categorical rejection of the Russian invasion and the closure of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles to warships, in accordance with the Montreux Agreement and Ankara's diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis politically, carry messages of appreciation from Washington to Ankara.

The war revealed NATO's institutional importance and geopolitical position with regard to Europe's security, underscoring Turkiye's crucial role in the alliance.

Turkiye has emerged as a key supporter of protecting Ukraine's security, territorial integrity, political unity and condemnation of the Russian invasion despite the deep economic ties between Moscow and Ankara.

Analysts do not rule out Turkiye taking a more radical stance against Russia if negotiations fail and the escalation between Moscow and Washington continues, which could revive the Turkish–U.S. alliance in the long run.

 

Old Alliance

Issam Abdul Shafi, president of the Academy of International Relations and director of the Egyptian Institute of Studies, said there are many considerations governing Turkish–U.S. relations, which are not born today, but extend for decades, starting with the interaction that can be described as strategic, especially after World War II.

He added to Al-Estiklal that Turkiye confirmed its importance to the Western system, whether in dealing with the Syrian or Iraqi file or addressing the Russian expansion in the region despite the conflicting Turkish-American positions and its collision with some repercussions of the events of September 2001 or the U.S. invasion of Iraq and even the Turkish position on the Arab revolutions.

"Relations between Ankara and Washington have been further strained with Joe Biden's presidency in January 2021 against the backdrop of his negative statements about the Turkish regime and its efforts to get rid of it."

It was before the failed coup attempt in Turkiye in July 2016 and the indictment of the administration of former President Barack Obama, then Vice President Biden.

In his view, developments in regional and international events, particularly with developments in the Russian aggression against Ukraine, had pushed for calm between the parties, with the importance of Turkiye's role in the Russian-Ukrainian negotiating file emerging, and Turkiye's association with good relations with both sides of the crisis.

U.S.-Turkish relations are essentially strategic, and tensions are an exception, he said, so talking about a common coordination mechanism between the two countries must actually move toward strengthening ties between them.

In the last year, Turkiye has been moving toward normalizing relations with America's allies in the region, with whom it has clashed over the past 10 years, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and "Israel," including Greece and Armenia, he said.

He saw that normalization policies would calm many of the files and points of tension, and strengthen U.S.-Turkish relations, consistent with Washington's strategic directions at this point, which seek to intensify efforts against China economically and Russia diplomatically and militarily.

Professor Ahmet Uysal, head of the Center for Middle East Studies (ORSAM), said the announcement of the strategic mechanism between Ankara and Washington is a positive step toward improving relations between the two allies in the first place.

He told Al-Estiklal that Turkiye and the United States have been NATO allies since the Kemalists (under the founder of the modern state Mustafa Kemal Ataturk), but with the AKP coming to power, Ankara's independence emerged, which Washington does not want.

It has taken a negative stance by supporting PKK groups (classified by Turkiye as terrorists) as well as supporting The Gülen organization to fight justice and development governments, Uysal said.

With the failure of the organizations to work against the government and Turkiye's emergence stronger, he said, it could change the U.S. position, especially after Ankara's role in the Russian war on Ukraine.

Former U.S. diplomat Mufid al-Deek said the strategy announcement could open the way for stronger relations between Turkiye and the United States in the future, especially since Ankara has begun to pursue different policies toward Washington's allies, such as the Gulf states and Egypt.

He told Al-Estiklal that although the United States wanted Turkiye to take a clearer and closer support for the Western, NATO and EU positions against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ankara has shown an unbiased position to help it mediate diplomatically between Moscow and Kiev in order to broker a solution.

He added that Washington did not oppose the Turkish position altogether, especially since it took an important position in closing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits and prevented Russian ships from passing in accordance with the Montreux Agreement, a position that undoubtedly had a positive impact.

"Although Turkiye has not engaged in sanctions against Russia and has not explicitly armed Ukraine as NATO and the EU, Turkish drones have shown great effectiveness in Ukraine, reinforcing Ankara's strength and position, even if Kiev obtained those drones before the invasion," he promised.

Turkiye's important role in the region and in NATO makes the United States move to strengthen relations with a strong ally and build a new phase with it, he said.

He stressed that Washington will not reject any approaches to improving relations with Turkiye under Erdogan's government despite differences in many files.

He predicted that the United States would work to support economic cooperation with Turkiye at this pivotal stage around the 2023 presidential election.