These Are the Repercussions of Putin’s Halting Iran’s Nuclear Deal

Russia surprised the Iranians when it linked the completion of the nuclear agreement to the end of US sanctions on Moscow after it invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Western sanctions on his country had become a stumbling block to reviving the nuclear agreement signed between Iran and international powers in 2015.

Lavrov said, on March 5, 2022, that there are problems for the Russian side. We asked our American colleagues to provide written guarantees that sanctions will not affect our right to free and full trade, economic, investment and military-technical cooperation with Iran.

 

Iranian Anger

The Russian minister's statements sparked criticism of Iranian officials for what they described as interference in the final stages of talks aimed at reviving Tehran's nuclear agreement with major powers, according to the semi-official Iranian Tasnim news agency.

On March 5, 2022, the agency quoted Iranian officials (whose identities have not been revealed) as saying that the Russian demands are aimed at ensuring Moscow's interests in other areas and that they are "not constructive."

It explained that Russia is seeking, by postponing the revival of the agreement between Iran and the Western powers, and delaying Tehran's return to the global oil market, to raise crude prices and increase its energy revenues.

On the other hand, Reuters news agency quoted on March 6, 2022, a senior Iranian official (whose identity was not revealed) that his country is awaiting clarification from Moscow regarding Minister Lavrov's statements.

"It is necessary to clearly understand what Moscow wants. If their demands are related to the nuclear agreement, it will not be difficult to find a solution to them," the Iranian official said, adding, "but it will be complicated if the guarantees demanded by Russia go beyond the nuclear agreement."

It quoted Iranian affairs analyst Henry Rome as saying that reviving the nuclear deal without Russia is "difficult, but probably possible, at least in the short term."

 

'Out of Context'

On the American side, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken sought to dispel talk of such obstacles raised by his Russian counterpart, by saying that the sanctions imposed on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine have nothing to do with a possible nuclear deal with Iran.

In an interview with the US CBS network on March 5, 2022, Blinken said, "The sanctions imposed on Russia have nothing to do with the Iranian nuclear agreement and the possibilities of returning to it. These are completely different things and are not related to each other in any way."

The US Secretary of State added that a potential agreement with Iran was imminent but indicated that no solution to two of the remaining "extremely difficult" issues had been reached.

The United States considered the new Russian demands "out of context" and could delay the success of negotiations aimed at saving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

 

Sudden Change

Regarding the extent to which Russia's obstacles to the nuclear agreement are affected by the strategic relationship between Tehran and Moscow, the academic and political researcher Omar Al-Adil told Al-Estiklal that "Iran's statements and positions will be more deliberate and cautious."

Al-Adil pointed out that: "The stages reached by the nuclear agreement talks cannot be neglected by Iran, which does not intersect with its keenness to maintain the relationship with Russia. We are used to witnessing Tehran's ability to achieve balance, patience and maneuvering."

The researcher considered that "so far, it has refrained from being a bargaining party, whether from the United States or Russia. for now the pressure on Tehran is only mediatic, which gives Tehran greater flexibility."

Al-Adil concluded that, "Perhaps the entry of these interactions into its official framework will be enough to openly and publicly change positions."

He pointed out that "the coming days may reveal more Russian positions as the war on Ukraine continues and the revival of the nuclear consensus is close."

For his part, French writer Armin Arefi said in an article published by the French magazine Le Point on March 7, 2022, that “Moscow, which remained an ally of the West against Iran despite entering into the most serious crisis with it since the end of the Cold War due to its invasion of Ukraine, suddenly changed its position  and now demands guarantees that the US sanctions will not impede its future cooperation with Tehran."

 

Case Bypass

The crisis in Ukraine finally exceeded the Iranian nuclear issue, says the writer, and when it seemed that an agreement was about to be signed in Austria, Lavrov unexpectedly declared, at a press conference from Moscow, that "there is a problem from the Russian side."

He pointed out that Russia, upon which the West imposed unprecedented sanctions in response to its invasion of Ukraine, targeting its financial and banking sector to inflict heavy losses on its economy and isolate it from the rest of the world to force it to change its position, is seeking with this step to ease the noose around its financial resources.

This comes in time when Russia played a key role in the Vienna talks, as an ally of Tehran and Beijing, and as a potential beneficiary of Iran's surplus uranium stockpile.

On March 9, 2022, researcher Clément Therme said that "there is a welcome within Iran for the strategy of alliance with Moscow in the security field, based on the two countries' involvement in the issue of opposing US policy."

However, this welcome is coupled with fears of the increasing Russian influence inside Iran, according to him. Nevertheless, "the two countries are aware of the necessity of security cooperation within the framework of their joint war against terrorism in the neighbourhood."

Therme continued in a study published by the Future Center for Advanced Research and Studies, saying: "Thanks to Russian air support, Iran was able to improve its ability to deploy ground forces outside its national borders [in Syria]."

In return, Russia has benefited from Tehran's ability to recruit and mobilize fighters there. Finally, it can be said that Moscow has become more than ever a key partner in ensuring Iran's survival, as he put it.