Amid Its War on Ukraine, How Does Russia Preserve Its Positions in Syria?

The Russian’s efforts of its Ukraine’s invasion have begun to be reflected in Moscow's military presence in Syria, which is slowly moving towards relieving the preoccupation of its Hmeimim air base in the Latakia countryside.

But what was remarkable was Russia’s support for its ally on the ground, Iran, by stationing in some marginal military points in Syrian regions instead, or through understandings between them that preceded Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the launch of the military operation to control the capital Kyiv on February 24, 2022.

Since the second day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Iranian militias in the areas controlled by the Syrian regime in Raqqa governorate expanded their presence at the expense of the Russian-backed militias that withdrew from their positions.

 

Website Tactics

Al-Khabour website stated that Iranian militias: "Liwa Fatemiyoun, Harakat al-Nujaba and Hezbollah" transferred military personnel and equipment from the western countryside of Deir Ezzor to military headquarters in the countryside of Raqqa, which were run by the "National Defense" militia and the "Fifth Corps" backed by the Russia.

The website indicated that the Iranian militias were concentrated in headquarters in the towns of Sabkha, Khamisiyah, the village of Ghanem al-Ali, and the city of Maaden, instead of its Russian-backed counterpart.

It pointed out that the new expansion of Iranian militias came in agreement with the Syrian regime, after emptying the headquarters of the Russian militias that had advanced into the Syrian desert.

On the second of March 2022, the Afghan Fatemiyoun Brigade seized the al-Zahraa school located in the city of Maskana, east of Aleppo, with the aim of turning it into an ammunition depot, a command center for its militias in the area, and an operations room to manage combing operations in the Syrian Badia.

As part of the Iranian moves, amid the Russian focus on Ukraine, Tehran pushed military trucks from its Quds Force militia to the headquarters of the "47 Tanks" Brigade of the 11th Division in Mount Maarin in the southern Hama countryside, which is considered primarily responsible for managing the Iranian presence in Hama Governorate.

The goal of the Russian military presence in some locations, especially in northeastern Syria, was to mark and develop its presence later within the influence equation with the United States and Turkey.

However, Putin's haste in launching the military operation in Ukraine has led him to reset his country's tactics in Syria, even if it appears so far to be temporary.

Despite this remarkable development, which many observers confirm that it is still logical and does not weaken the Russian military presence in Syria, it opens a small loophole for Tehran, mainly related to the outcome of the attack on Ukraine and the effect it will have on Moscow.

Since Russia's military intervention in Syria in 2015 to save the head of the regime, Bashar al-Assad, a hidden conflict has begun between Moscow and Tehran, which intervened for the same reason in 2012 to co-opt local militias and build their military arms on the ground.

But Iran was faster to be in, focusing on the human structure concerning the consolidation of the military presence in Syria and access to the Mediterranean, which Russia shares.

Tehran has about 100,000 fighters in Syria that have been organized since its military intervention to quell the Syrian revolution in 2011.

 

Temporary Step

As for Russia, local military sources confirm to Al-Estiklal that it possesses or is affiliated with about ten thousand members, most of whom are included in the Fifth Corps, which was formed under Russian orders in late 2016.

It also has in Syria about two thousand military police and three thousand Wagner mercenaries, in addition to about 1,500 personnel including technicians, arming, ammunition and guarding at Hmeimim Airport and its dependencies.

It also has the hybrid "Fifth Corps" of civilians and soldiers, an auxiliary military force that helped the Assad regime regain control of large areas of Syrian territory, before turning in 2018 into a "special army" for the Russian army in Syria.

Press reports confirm that Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is close to the president, is the owner of the "Wagner" company, which has become more like "Putin's secret army."

Wagner is fighting according to Russia's interests in many countries of the world;  Washington included it in the list of sanctions against Russian institutions in June 2017.

Wagner has recruited mercenaries through local proxies in Syria, carries out its activities in full coordination with Moscow, and carries out security operations abroad that amount to "war crimes" on behalf of the Russian government forces to evade legal responsibility for these operations.

Concerning the step of the tactical withdrawal of the Russian militias from some military points in Syria, the analyst, military and strategic expert Colonel Ahmed Hamadeh explains that "through the confession of the Russian prisoners in Kyiv, it appears that Moscow has transferred Russian pilots and soldiers from Syria to fight in Ukraine."

This means withdrawing Russian forces, and of course they will be replaced by Iranians and Assad's forces, according to what Hamadeh told Al-Estiklal.

The colonel pointed out that "despite the focus on Ukraine, Syria remains an important center for the Russians militarily, both, strategically and politically, but Iran will benefit from the Russian-Ukrainian war and there will be Russian dependence on it, especially in Damascus despite the Iranian leader Ali Khamenei's formal condemnation of the Russian aggression."

Hamada continued to say that "the interests unite Moscow and Tehran in Syria, especially in stabilizing Assad's rule, which secures the interests of Putin and Iran."

However, he added, "the handing over of Russian militias controlled points to Iran may contribute to shifting their loyalty to Tehran if the battle for Ukraine continues, especially if there is a breakthrough in the nuclear agreement. Tehran may economically recover and compensate the West with oil.

"Here, it will take care of these elements and the military situation in Syria, because Washington will focus with Europe on preserving the security of the European bloc from the last dam represented by Ukraine, but in the end, everything is temporary and related to the development of events, whether by stopping the fighting there, its continuation, the occurrence of a settlement or some kind of barter."

 

Keep Driving

Russia followed a tactic to keep the official version of its media as credible as possible, which is about its invasion of Ukraine. For this reason, it blocked Facebook and Twitter on its territory as the invasion of Ukraine entered its ninth day.

This was preceded by banning the Russian media from using any information other than that provided by the authorities and deleting any reference to civilians killed by the Russian army in Ukraine, as well as the terms "invasion", "attack" or "declaration of war", at a time when foreign ministers condemned The G7 countries on March 4, 2022 "with Russian disinformation".

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced on March 5, 2022, that it had "downed a Russian fighter and captured its pilot."

After the video spread, several media outlets, including Ukrainian, indicated that the Russian pilot was the same one who collected some photos of Bashar al-Assad and Putin at the Syrian Hmeimim base on December 11, 2017.

In this context, the Syrian chemical warfare specialist, former major Tariq Haj Bakri, confirms that "Russia does not want to open two fronts at the same time."

He said in a statement to Al-Estiklal: "Therefore, Russia's disappearance from the Syrian fronts or its withdrawal from some of them and handing them over to the Iranian forces is in order to reduce losses so that it is not said that some of its soldiers are dying in Syria, especially if this coincides with what is happening in Ukraine, this is a defeat and a loss at the same time."

He pointed out that "Russia withdrew some of its forces from Syria, especially the Wagner militia, in addition to some planes, as was monitored, in conjunction with the current recruitment of some Syrian mercenaries to send them to Russia and from there to the battle fronts in Ukraine."

The military expert stressed that "Russia wants to rely on Iran and its militias in the military confrontation, but it will not give up leadership, influence and control of the Syrian regime, and will not leave this matter to Iran."

 

Power Cards

In the face of Ukraine receiving political, economic and military assistance from the rest of the world, especially in the field of air defense, which exhausted the Russians and shot down their attacking planes, many military observers assert that Moscow will be forced to freeze its fronts in Syria.

The military effort of its experts and consultants has also been poured into the most important battle in which the Russian forces are adopting siege tactics, with the aim of destroying civilian infrastructure and imposing maximum pressure on the Ukrainian army.

As the Washington Post quoted the US Department of Defense, the latter believes that Russia will regroup and put pressure on its huge advantage in its firepower, in light of the Ukrainian army’s adoption of a two-pronged strategy in the face of a fierce Russian attack, relying on hit-and-run tactics and fortifying major cities.

The leader of the Syrian opposition, Brigadier General Fateh Hassoun, points out that "Ukraine comes first amid Russia’s priorities, especially since its forces began an open battle to occupy it, being surprised by the force of the unexpected resistance, while the West is seeking to maintain a balance in power."

However, he told Al-Estiklal that "this has exhausted the Russians a lot at various levels, and they have no time left to devote themselves to the situation in Syria, nor the financial capabilities to support their forces, especially as they face unprecedented severe penalties that have exhausted the Russian economy in a very short time."

The brigadier general agrees with many of the speakers that "the Russians will not give up their gains in Syria, at least at this stage, despite their forces suffering from poor supplies and freedom of movement after the closure of the sea straits between the Black and White Seas."

Hassoun added: "As a result of this crisis situation for Russia, its decision tended to hand over many of its tasks to the Iranians and give them the green light to restore some of the sites from which they were expelled earlier."

He believes that "without a doubt, this gives the Russians some power cards in the region so that Iran will be their ally in its possible conflict that will develop into international alliances that will drag the countries of the region into a conventional war led by the Russian bear and the American tiger."