Turkey Is in Trouble Because of the Ukraine War

With the escalation of the conflict between the West and Russia that resulted in a war to control Ukraine, on February 24, 2022, Turkey is witnessing a real dilemma between its rejection of Moscow's aggressive plans, and its role as a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that has begun to impose sanctions on Russia, the heiress of the Soviet Union.

The conditions of the war give Turkey the right under the 1936 Montreux convention to prevent the passage of Russian and Western warships through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, to the Black Sea, which is overlooked by the most important Russian and Ukrainian ports.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on February 21, the formal recognition of the independence of the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, Turkey criticized the move, but refrained from announcing any punitive measures, like the rest of its NATO allies.

With Russia beginning its military operations on the territory of Ukraine, the Turkish dilemma increased, especially after Ukraine demanded that it implement what was stated in the Montreux Convention and close the Turkish sea straits to Russian ships.

Over the past months, Russia has been calling for "security guarantees" as a condition for de-escalation, most notably NATO's withdrawal from Eastern Europe and Ukraine's non-joining of the alliance, which the West considered unacceptable.

 

Real Predicament

Turkey has a unique weapon, according to observers, with which it can threaten and tame Russia if it wants: it is the Montreux Convention, ratified by 10 countries, the most important of which, along with Turkey, are Britain, France, Greece and the Soviet Union.

Signed in Switzerland in 1936, the agreement grants Ankara control over the straits within its borders and enables it to impede the passage of ships during times of war to and from the Black Sea.

Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania are bordering the black sea.

Turkey could also limit the arrival of US and Russian naval warships, helping to protect the Black Sea from militarization.

During the Cold War, this agreement served as a safety valve for Turkey and Western countries in the face of Soviet threats.

After the Cold War, it witnessed a transformation in terms of concept and importance, as the balance of power in the Black Sea changed due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the inclinations of the countries under the control of Russia towards Western countries one after the other.

In wartime, Turkey is allowed to close the straits to all foreign warships or when it is under threat of aggression and can refuse the transit of merchant ships from countries that are at war with Turkey and fortify the straits in case of conflict.

All other countries that wish to send ships must notify Turkey 15 days in advance, while the Black Sea countries must give eight days' notice.

However, Turkey's interests with Russia impede its imposition of any restrictions or the implementation of the Montreux Convention, despite its realization that the war in the region severely harms its economy, so it looks like someone who is moving on a tightrope.

Ankara’s rejection of sanctions against Moscow is due to its desire to balance relations on the one hand, and its dependence on Russian gas and its need for Russian trade and tourism relations on the other hand.

Since the outbreak of tensions in the Ukrainian arena, Turkish officials contented themselves with affirming the "effective role" of the Montreux Convention "in maintaining regional peace” and did not specify the position that the country would take in the event of a war.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on January 26, 2022, that Turkey would do what was necessary as a NATO ally if Russia launched an invasion, without details.

The secret of Turkey's relatively calm position with regard to imposing sanctions on Russia under the Montreux Convention lies in Turkey's dependence on Russia in the field of energy and tourism, in addition to close cooperation in the field of defense in recent years.

 

Common Interests

International statistics indicate that Russia supplied Turkey with 46 percent of its gas needs in 2021, and Ankara is looking to conclude short-term gas deals with Moscow to reduce import costs.

In 2008, when Russia recognized the independence of the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Ankara rejected a US request to apply the Montreux Convention to Russia or allow US warships to pass through the strait for the same reasons.

During World War II, the Montreux Convention prevented the Axis powers from sending naval forces across the strait to attack the Soviet Union.

So the crisis left President Erdogan balancing those diplomatic relations alongside his duties within NATO, with a focus on protecting the besieged Turkish economy from successive shocks after the currency crisis in December 2021.

Analysts say any Turkish move too far against Moscow would make Ankara risk spoiling important Russian energy supplies, trade and tourism, Reuters reported on February 23, 2022.

The British agency adds that the possibility of a prolonged, bloodless conflict or substantive sanctions on Russian energy exports is what could severely damage Turkey and threaten economic stability.

To achieve the balance that Turkey has used for decades, Erdogan often highlights his friendship with Putin, but has warned Russia against invasion and offered to mediate in the crisis, while also criticizing the West as being an obstacle to peace.

Turkey itself suffers from US sanctions, and therefore refuses to participate in any sanctions against any country.

When it bought the Russian S-400 defense systems in 2019, this angered the United States and imposed sanctions on Ankara.

Turkey also does not want to further strain relations with Russia, especially after it sold advanced drones to Ukraine and signed a deal to co-produce more, and that angered Moscow.

Turkey also opposes Russian policies in Syria and Libya, and opposes Russia's annexation of the Crimea in 2014, and its recognition of the independence of the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.

 

Instant Meeting

Immediately after the start of the Russian aggression, on February 24, the Ukrainian ambassador to Ankara held a press conference in which he confirmed that his country had asked Turkey to close the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to Russian ships, and to impose sanctions on Moscow.

President Erdogan hastened to hold a security summit in the presence of military and security leaders to discuss the Ukraine file at the Presidential Complex.

In the forefront of those attending the security summit, the Vice President, the Ministers of Defense and Interior, the chiefs of staff, intelligence and presidential officials, indicate Turkey's interest and need to take balanced decisions that do not harm its security, its economy, and its relationship with the conflicting parties.

Turkey fears that if it prevents Russian warships from passing through, it will enter into an escalation with Moscow that will harm it economically, at a time when it is in dire need of stability for the success of Erdogan's plan to stop inflation and reduce the lira.

At the same time, its membership in NATO requires the Turkish country not to let Russia win Ukraine, even though NATO itself has declared that it will not intervene because Kyiv is not a member.

America and NATO put Turkey at the forefront as it is able to control the straits and the movement of Russian naval vessels, considering that the Turkish role and the use of its right in the Montreux Convention, may hinder the escalation of the war because of its control over the straits.

But it has not done so yet, and it may not do, if the Russian aggression stopped and did not reach a complete invasion, and was limited, as the separatist leaders in Ukraine said, to controlling the rest of the regions of the two republics recognized by Putin, Donetsk and Luhansk.

This Turkish confusion was reflected in the statement of the Turkish presidency after the end of the security meeting held by Erdogan.

He affirmed Turkey's rejection of the Russian military operation in Ukraine as a violation of international laws and discussed initiatives that could be put forward to end the escalation, but there was no talk in the statement about Ankara's intention to disrupt the movement of Russia's ships, according to Montreux.

In his speech after the security meeting, the Turkish president summarized his country's position on what is happening between Russia and Ukraine, according to the statement, in "rejecting Russian military operations, supporting the unity and stability of Ukrainian territory, calling for dialogue, giving priority to diplomacy and returning to the Minsk Agreement."

This means that the Turkish position has not changed, as Ankara is trying to balance and put forward a political initiative, with reasons related to its complex relationship with Russia.

 

Istanbul Channel

It is noteworthy that when Erdogan was prime minister in 2011, he announced a set of "mega projects" aimed at increasing the country's gross domestic product to reach two trillion dollars by the 100th anniversary of the proclamation of the republic, in 2023.

The largest and most controversial project among them was the "Istanbul Canal,” which will be parallel to the current Bosphorus Strait, and therefore will not be subject to the restrictions of the international Montreux Convention concluded in the colonial phase.

The importance of this project is that it will change the land and sea transportation in Turkey and relieve pressure on the Bosphorus Strait in the east, which is one of the most crowded and polluted waterways as it witnesses the highest navigational density in the world.

The Turkish government says that the canal project will generate eight billion dollars annually, in exchange for tariffs paid by ships to pass through it, since the canal will not be subject to the Montreux Convention stating freedom of navigation without fees.

However, the Istanbul Canal raises Moscow's concerns about its use for military purposes, as it fears that it will open the door to the presence of American warships in the Black Sea, which is restricted by the Montreux Convention.

In April 2021, 103 Turkish generals issued a statement claiming that this channel would bring problems to Turkey, and that Erdogan would be withdrawn from the Montreux Convention, which could anger the world and put Turkey in danger.

The statement of the generals was met with great firmness, and they were investigated.

Meanwhile, the Turkish president denied the existence of "any plans to withdraw from the Montreux Convention," stressing that the Istanbul Canal project has nothing to do with the agreement, and Ankara does not intend to review it or leave it.