Saudi and China Relations: What Impact Does It Have On Biden's Middle East Strategy?

Adham Hamed | 2 years ago

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According to an Italian website, the CIA's hypothesis that Saudi Arabia builds ballistic missiles with China's help will complicate the situation in the Middle East, exacerbating tensions between Washington and Beijing if confirmed.

The “Institute for International Relations Analysis” website predicts that this development could have significant implications across the Middle East and complicate the administration's efforts to contain the nuclear ambitions of Iran, the Kingdom's main regional rival.

The development, revealed by CNN on December 23, 2021, threatens decades of U.S. efforts to limit missile proliferation in the Middle East, it said.

Satellite images taken between October 26 and November 9 show a location near Saudi Arabia's Duwadimi province suitable for ballistic missile production.

The main evidence is that the facility manages a "burning hole" to dispose of solid fuel residues from rocket production.

 

Relationships Evolvement

In the same context, the website noted that Saudi Arabia had in the past acquired ballistic missiles from China.

Since 2019, U.S. intelligence agencies have been aware of the fact that Riyadh is dealing with China to develop its ballistic missile program.

But former President Donald Trump's administration has decided not to present intelligence reports to key members of Congress, the website said.

During the Cold War, opposition to the Communist regime in Saudi Arabia avoided diplomatic relations with China at least until the end of the 1980s.

The Italian website noted that in December 1986, Riyadh felt threatened by Iran's role during the war with Iraq and reached an agreement with Beijing to supply 50 CSS-2 ballistic missiles.

Two years later, the CIA learned of a missile base in Saudi territory, and shortly thereafter, relations between Washington and Riyadh went through a crisis, the Italian website states.

At the turn of the millennium, China soon became a major importer of Saudi oil behind the United States.

The institute's website noted that China's importance to the Saudis was highlighted by the visit of former King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, who chose Beijing as the first foreign visit since he took the throne.

The message was clear that the kingdom had turned its attention to the East, not to the West, where King Abdullah did his utmost to sign several important energy cooperation agreements.

In 2019, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman conducted a major Asian tour, the first of its kind abroad since the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at his country's consulate in Istanbul, during which he signed a number of agreements in China.

More importantly for the Italian website, his clear position in favor of Chinese repression against Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang province was that "Beijing has the right to take measures to ensure that it combats terrorism and dismantles extremism in the interests of its national security."

Highlighting the development of Sino-Saudi relations, the site continued that Riyadh resorted during the Corona pandemic to Beijing to buy nine million tests for the virus.

In August 2021, the Saudis announced their cooperation with Chinese companies to digitally transform the kingdom by launching the Saudi-Chinese WTP Arabia Capital Fund, with a capital of nearly $400 million.

 

Program Effects

The Italian website pointed out that the fact that Saudi Arabia is among the largest buyers of U.S. weapons illustrates the strong trade relationship between Riyadh and Washington, despite the Saudis being prevented from purchasing ballistic missiles under the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

It is an informal and multinational agreement signed in 1987 aimed at preventing the proliferation of missiles capable of carrying weapons of mass destruction.

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has made it clear that U.S. policy is to oppose the proliferation of ballistic missile technology in the Middle East, but the Saudis, who appear to be among the signatories of the agreement, have taken a position that demonstrates their intention to match Iran's missile capability.

The website reported that bipartisan criticism of Riyadh's involvement in the Yemeni war, which according to the United Nations has caused a major famine involving 14 million people, has not prevented Trump from helping Riyadh sell weapons and ammunition by imposing a state of emergency and bypassing necessary congressional ratification on the issue.

During the race for the White House, Biden drew harsh criticism of Saudi Arabia, particularly in connection with the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, and joined Democrats to demand a halt to arms sales to the Royal House.

The website says that it is likely to have significant implications if the United States decides to abandon its missile deterrence policy in the Middle East, assuming that Trump's failure to react, which did not press Riyadh but helped it publicly, encouraged the Saudis to develop the missile program.

According to the Institute, the Biden administration now faces the risk that Saudi progress in its ballistic missile construction program could radically change regional power dynamics and complicate efforts to expand the terms of the nuclear deal with Iran, which includes strict restrictions on Iranian missile technology.

It is a goal that Biden is likely to accelerate in the coming months with the support of Europe, Israel and the Gulf states, according to the Italian website.

Saudi Arabia values its relations with China but is nevertheless well aware of its core limits because of its historic alliance with Washington, it said.

However, the White House's space for maneuver seems to be narrow, especially since it is necessary to maintain good diplomatic relations with China, given the way Biden has tried to engage Beijing on political issues that are a priority for his administration, such as the climate crisis, the supply chain crisis and the continued proliferation of Coronavirus.

The Italian site is unlikely to agree to Tehran's suspension of ballistic missile production in the form of Saudi Arabia's launch of its own missile production.

While Washington's high attention is focused on Iran's missile program, the Saudi development has not received the necessary attention.

In conclusion, the site stressed that Saudi Arabia's production of ballistic missiles indicates that any diplomatic effort to control its deployment will necessarily have to involve other regional players as well.

But given the stalemate in negotiations with Iran, Saudi Arabia's missile program could add difficulties to this thorny problem, it estimated.

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