What Prevents Russia From Invading Ukraine?

The Italian Il Sussidiario website sheds light on the growing crisis on the eastern borders of Ukraine, considering that the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and Russia there is nourished by anthropological factors that go beyond purely strategic ones.

Ukraine accuses Russia of mobilizing more than 100,000 soldiers near its borders in preparation for its attack by the end of January 2022, and Western statements about unusual Russian military build-ups on the border with Ukraine have been frequent.

However, Russia denied that it was planning to invade Ukraine, and described the reports of this matter as false propaganda, accusing Kiev of planning a military escalation in the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine, and this region has been witnessing since 2014 a military conflict between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists.

On December 17, 2021, Russia put forward a list of demands on the West for calm, including the withdrawal of NATO forces from Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, all of which represented the western borders of the Soviet Union before its collapse in 1991.

 

The Heart of Confrontation

The Italian website said that the Ukrainian crisis has become in recent days the heart of the confrontation and conflict between the United States and Russia.

On the one hand, the United States echoes the rhetoric of the ambitions of the Soviet empire, which wants to return to the current scene as a regional power and extension, and on the other hand, Russia continues to identify the identity of "Russian" states.

In an article published on the Russian presidential website in July 2021, President Vladimir Putin emphasized that Russia and Ukraine constitute one people and that the real sovereignty of Kiev is possible only in partnership with Moscow.

The site considered that the Russian discourse is more justified, especially since it is supported by a past of thousands of years for peoples brought together by language, religion, customs, and military and social tensions.

It pointed out that the US agencies are talking in their recent reports about new Russian ambitions to revive an old Soviet power.

It added that the reality is more complex in Ukraine, where there is a pro-Western government thanks to the 2014 coup orchestrated by the United States.

It explained that the reason for this complexity lies in the fact that "the United States lives in the depths of the anthropology of a people of European descent, who sanctify the love of Russian identity without expressing it."

According to the site, "the American myth of endless spaces and people free in the face of fate finds in the endless Russian spaces living and new legends still pulsing with emotions."

"For a large part of ordinary Americans, Russia has become the horizon of identity, facing a reality that presents endless difficulties."

This was evidenced by the divisions taking place in American society as a result of ethnic conflicts, economic differences and imbalances between the regions of the country, as well as immigration from Latin America.

 

Different Readings

On the Russian side, the imminent invasion of Ukraine faces many obstacles that are quite different from many analytical articles in specialized newspapers.

There are readings that "Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a hoax, especially since the material and economic cost will be very high for the Russian economy which suffers."

It added: "In fact, one can easily disagree with such readings. First, the Russian economy is not small and is not in crisis."

Second, "the real obstacle that Putin faces in a shared identity is related to the identity of Russians, made up of Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Georgia and Armenia."

In the same context, the Italian website considered "the low-intensity conflict in Donbass between Ukrainians and pro-Russian rebel republics, which has killed about 14,000 people since 2014 until today, as a bloodbath that officials are very ashamed of in the capitals Kiev and Moscow."

It said that "all this was planned by the US Central Intelligence Agency using Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky," noting that "the latter's talk at the end of November 2021 about a possible coup planned on the first or second of December were just allegations."

"He has lost all credibility, fully affirming that he was subject to manipulation by the United States,” the site pointed out.

On the other hand, the site indicated that "when it comes to Taiwan, the United States does nothing to deny its military participation in a possible conflict with China, but when it comes to Ukraine, the first thing officials in Washington emphasize is the absolute absence of any intention of direct military participation."

It explained that the reason is simple and is that the only power that the United States fears at the military level is Russia, but the situation is balanced in other respects by the fact that the United States is the only power that outperforms the Russian Federation in military production.

It added that the cornerstone of this balance is nuclear weapons, so any violation of this principle means exposing the world to destruction.

The site also indicated that the correct Russian GDP is equal to about 40 percent of the US GDP.

It commented, "this explains why, on the military level, we are talking about the two countries remaining the only real big powers."