Yassin al-Tamimi to Al-Estiklal: ‘Without the Intervention of the Coalition, the Yemeni Army Would Have Liberated Sanaa’

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Yemeni analyst and researcher Yassin al-Tamimi confirmed that the bad intentions of Saudi Arabia and the UAE led Yemen to the current predicament, pointing out that their motives were initially geopolitical, then changed towards expansionist goals and ambitions.

In an interview with Al-Estiklal, he said that the Yemeni army was on the outskirts of Sanaa at the beginning of the war, but it turned out that the coalition did not want to resolve the matter in favor of legitimacy and didn’t empower the forces of the Yemen Spring that overthrew the late President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

He added that the Saudi claims of intervention in Yemen to stop Iran's ambitions are just "false pretexts and slogans," and the current Saudi-Iranian rapprochement comes in response to US pressure and enhances Tehran's influence.

Al-Tamimi also denounced the complete dependence of the United Nations on the Houthi group, while the Security Council is moving towards a new resolution on influence-sharing and the absence of the state.

He believes that Iraq is burdened with internal crises, and it is not ready to mediate and play a real role in Yemen, in light of Iran's adherence to sectarian and geopolitical agendas that threaten the stability of the region.

While the Yemeni analyst explained that the current crisis between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon began with the Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, abandonment of the Hariri family, and the statements of the Information Minister George Kordahi were the straw that broke the camel's back.

The Lebanese Minister of Information, George Kordahi, said in statements before he took office, that "the Houthis are defending themselves against the attacks of Saudi Arabia and the UAE." Riyadh condemned the statements and along with The Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Yemen, they all withdrew their ambassadors from Beirut.

Yemen has been witnessing a war for nearly seven years between government forces backed by a military coalition led by neighboring Saudi Arabia, and the Iranian-backed Houthis, who have controlled governorates including the capital, Sanaa, since September 2014.

This war claimed 233,000 lives, and 80 percent of Yemen’s 30 million population became dependent on aid to survive, in the worst humanitarian crisis in the world, according to the United Nations.

 

 

Arab Alliance

 

• In your opinion, was the coalition unable to defeat Iran's followers after 7 years of war?

Yassin al-Tamimi: The coalition was not helpless, but it changed its war orientation deliberately and saw that Yemen had become more flexible than ever before for a comfortable geopolitical reconfiguration in line with old goals and aspirations, especially for Saudi Arabia.

The UAE commitments extended since the summer of the 1994 civil war, in addition to Abu Dhabi’s expansionist ambitions in the corridors, ports, and islands, in line with the surplus money and weapons and the margin of the role granted to it by the Western powers.

Thus, we cannot say that there is a defeat, but rather bad intentions that led everyone, including the coalition, to a predicament, especially in light of the complexities of the war scene and the fluctuations in international positions in support of the coalition.

 

• How do you see Iraq's declaration of its readiness to mediate to end of the war in Yemen?

Yassin al-Tamimi: Iraq, burdened with crises and practically attached to the Iranian will, does not present any opportunity to play a real role in Yemen. The Iraqi Shiite governments, and behind them the Hawzas, are the dominant part in the country.

It has always shown support for the Houthis before we witnessed openness to Saudi Arabia, which gives an initial impression that there is a neutral government or that there are Shiite forces that have become part of Arab priorities.

Of course, it is premature to talk about an independent Iraq.

 

• How do you see the efforts of Saudi rapprochement with Iran and the appeasement of its officials’ statements towards it?

Yassin al-Tamimi: The efforts are not credible, as they do not express the true intentions of the two countries. They came only as a response to incomprehensible American pressures.

It seems that the United States wants to resolve conflict with Iran, even if that is at the expense of the region and in favor of a powerful role for Tehran in the region.

In fact, Saudi Arabia does not want to open up to Iran, which still adheres to sectarian and geopolitical agendas that threaten the stability of the region.

On the other hand, Iran has clear sectarian premises in dealing with Saudi Arabia, as it sees it as an enemy that must be defeated. In fact, the Shiite theory about Imam Mahdi views Saudi Arabia as the scene of the final confrontation with the Sunni heritage with its great symbols, which include the caliphs and the Companions.

 

• If this is only under American pressure, so what about the Riyadh claim of intervention in Yemen to stop the Iranian ambitions?

Yassin al-Tamimi: Unfortunately, everything was just false and pretentious slogans at the same time. Saudi Arabia turned the battle into an exclusive confrontation with Iran or the Iranian tide in order to get rid of the essential entitlements of the war.

Therefore, it was keen to promote the war as mere sectarian confrontation, while the motives for the Saudi intervention in the war were mainly political.

It had to end the coup, re-enable legitimacy and re-launch the political process, in addition to a political and geopolitical goal of ending Iranian influence in Yemen and Bab al-Mandab.

Neutralizing Iran in Yemen does not seem costly if it comes at the expense of Yemen's unity and stability, and it doubles Saudi Arabia's influence and hegemony.

Yet, even neutralizing Iran has become challenging today, after Saudi accounts inflated to levels that the Yemeni environment could not bear.

 

• Do you not see that the results of the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement will be in the interest of Iran and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen?

Yassin al-Tamimi: Certainly, any settlement that does not weaken Iran's tools is a very powerful enabler of its influence, and Saudi Arabia cannot avoid its imminent threats.

Therefore, Saudi Arabia's current position in the context of the war will remain surprising and astonishing for all Yemeni people who saw Riyadh's intervention as the beginning of a new phase of goodwill and cooperation free from the burdens of the recent past.

 

 

• In your opinion, can the situation of the Arab world be stable under the presence of the Iranian regime with its ambitions in the region?

Yassin al-Tamimi: Iran does not bear responsibility for the instability of the situation of the Arabs. For example, it has produced a popularly acceptable regime, and there is a mechanism for exchanging power, even if it is below the required level.

However, in the Arab countries, the regimes suppress people’s dignity, ability, capabilities and right to life, which makes them dependent on the international agenda and turns them into entities that have no ability to influence or defend their interests except with the help of foreign powers.

This matter helped Iran influence the Arab countries, which reached the point of complete control over countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and maybe Yemen soon.

 

• It is believed that there are agreements going on behind the scenes. What is your comment? Will it be for the benefit of Yemen or for the benefit of the parties wanting to exploit Yemen?

Yassin al-Tamimi: Things seem to be revolving within a narrow circle of international and regional influencers, and as long as legitimacy remains weak and lacking in influence, bad arrangements will await the Yemenis.

Any settlement based on rewarding the coup leaders and separatists will undoubtedly be disastrous, and this is what we do not want.

Talking about the necessity of going to a new resolution on Yemen issued by the Security Council is an attempt to establish a new legitimacy and a new reference for the current phase of influence-sharing, which is dominated by militias and the state is absent in a very disruptive manner.

 

• Is it possible for the coalition to leave Yemen and to let the Yemeni security forces make the war on their own responsibility?

Yassin al-Tamimi: This may be one of the expected scenarios, this would be a long war that will have a heavy political, security, and economic impact and cost on the coalition, especially Saudi Arabia.

Because the withdrawal will allow other players to become involved in the events, some of them have a moral agenda, and most of them will come to implement a bad agenda, and this will affect the Yemeni and Saudi national security and will lead to very dangerous ends.

 

• How do you see the crisis between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon after Kordahi described the war as absurd?

Yassin al-Tamimi: The crisis began when Saudi Arabia, during the reign of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, crudely abandoned its close ally in Lebanon, represented by the Hariri political family and the Future Movement, after it invested billions of dollars in Lebanon to keep it stable.

The imprisonment of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri represented a dramatic beginning for Saudi positions with Lebanon, which had long gone towards Iran after establishing an explicit Shiite Christian alliance that was and still is part of a strategy adopted and encouraged by the West in the context of its plan to weaken the Sunnis.

Kordahi's statements may have been the straw that broke the camel's back, but they are not the triggering event. There have been previous statements by the former Lebanese Foreign Minister and hostile positions on the part of media personalities.

 

Houthis and Iran

 

• What did Houthis do in Yemen?

Yassin al-Tamimi: They demolished the state of coexistence, struck the democratic system, and attempted to shape the faith and culture of the people in the densely populated areas they control, and link this part to the Iranian project.

They created a political environment that expels freedoms and dignity, established an economy based on minority domination, made room for building illegal fortunes for the benefit of war contractors, and prevented Corona vaccines from reaching their areas of control.

They caused a serious obstruction to the political, social and economic horizon that can only end by the defeat of their dangerous project.

 

• Why does the United Nations overlook all this?

Yassin al-Tamimi: The role of the United Nations is entirely dependent on the Houthi group, as the UN representations are still based in Sanaa, and this pushes them to deal with the Houthis as a de facto authority and take into account their reactions.

In addition, the United Nations has worked according to a narrative that has been promoted since the beginning of the crisis, which saw the Houthis as a potential partner in the fight against terrorism.

 

• How would expelling the Houthis from Sanaa be possible? Along with the withdrawal of weapons from it?

Yassin al-Tamimi: The National Army was on the outskirts of Sanaa, and it was said at the time that there were American red lines, but it turned out that the coalition did not want to end the war in favor of legitimacy and its political forces that overthrew President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

In the sense that it did not want to re-empower the forces of the Yemen Spring, or rather to empower the Yemeni claiming reforms, which is seen as the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen.

Nevertheless, the army can regain control over Sanaa. Moreover, Sanaa populations will celebrate their victory, because the Houthis do not have a real incubator in Sanaa.

 

 

Legitimate Authority

 

• The President and his deputy in Riyadh, the President of the Parliament and his deputy in Cairo, the Prime Minister in his palace, and members of the government in different capitals. What is your comment on this dispersal?

Yassin al-Tamimi: It is a reflection of a scheme implemented by the coalition, which needs the legitimacy cover and wants to keep it disjointed, scattered and helpless, so that it can get rid of it at the end of the war after it reaches its full goals.

 

• What is your assessment of the performance of Maeen Abdul Malik’s government?

Yassin al-Tamimi: Many do not know that this government is still considered a caretaker government, because it did not obtain the confidence of the House of Representatives, which the coalition has prevented from convening until today.

This government finds it difficult to meet with all of its members in Aden because there are undesirable ministers in Aden from the separatist Southern Transitional Council and the UAE behind them.

Most important of all, this government is facing a scarcity of resources, and its role today is almost reduced to securing the operating expenses of the secession project, which is being implemented in full swing in all Yemeni institutions.

 

• Parties from inside Yemen recently came out rejecting the role of the legitimate government, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. What is the possibility of forming a leadership from the field to manage the stage?

Yassin al-Tamimi: They are good initiatives, and they can be successful if they are based on the national ground and the legitimate aspirations of the Yemeni people. However, there are many reasons that impede serious moves by prominent national figures.

These movements require maturity and a real readiness to face the many difficulties, including logistical difficulties and others related to mistrust, and the absence of regional cover.

 

Emirates and Transitional

 

• After all the successively disclosed betrayals of the UAE in Yemen, what is the official government’s position towards the UAE?

Yassin al-Tamimi: The government includes five ministers affiliated with the Transitional Council, and the government is basically made up of a prime minister and ministers, most of whom have no problem with the UAE and the coalition, so we cannot in any way put the government in a position of confrontation.

 

• What about the popular role?

Yassin al-Tamimi: There are popular and media movements and there are actions by some local authority officials, but the matter is related to the great betrayal by the supreme authority in the legitimate government.

 

• Why did the Transitional Council abandon its Yemeni identity and all its movements became in favor of the UAE?

Yassin al-Tamimi: The Transitional Council arose from the separatist agenda, hostile to the unity and identity of Yemen, and the goal of secession is the reason for the existence of this Council, which was established in May 2017 as an expression of a radical shift in the position of the coalition towards Yemen.

As it began to push towards adopting the separatist agenda, which culminated in the expulsion of the government from Aden and forcing it to enter into negotiations with the reversing party, which led to the Riyadh Agreement that legalized the secession and empowered the separatists.

 

• Yet, the Riyadh agreement faltered, what are the reasons?

Yassin al-Tamimi: The reason lies in the Transitional Council’s refusal to implement the military and security part of the agreement, which guarantees the return of all powers to the legitimate authority in Aden and the southern governorates.

As for the main reason, the coalition did not want to implement the agreement. It wanted the agreement to be only a Trojan horse in order to pass the separatist project and legitimize it.

 

• What explains the successive withdrawals of the coalition forces from Hodeidah, Socotra, al-Mahra and others?

Yassin al-Tamimi: This is an expression of the coalition’s approach in Yemen. The withdrawal from Hodeidah is verified, but rest of the withdrawals from other areas cannot be verified yet.

If it happens, it will represent a free empowerment of the Southern Transitional Council to quickly reach its goals.

 

 

Economic Situation

 

• What is the reality of the economic situation now in Yemeni controlled areas by the Houthis, the Transitional Council, and the legitimacy?

Yassin al-Tamimi: Almost two separate economies are established in areas controlled by the Houthis and those nominally under the control of legitimacy.

The reason is due to the currency disaster. The Houthis prohibit dealing with the new printed currency in their areas of control, which caused a wide difference in the exchange of currency in the two areas of influence.

In addition to the catastrophic effects resulting from the Houthis’ adoption of an unfair system of money transfers between the two regions, with the transfer cost nearly one hundred percent, to the point that the beneficiary of the transfer coming from the areas of legitimacy does not get anything.

There is a parallel economy in the Houthis-controlled areas, which is based on the illegal trading of oil derivatives, in particular, money laundering and international aid trading.

 

• What is the fate of the Yemeni ports today?

Yassin al-Tamimi: The ports are almost under the control of warlords, most notably the port of Aden, which is controlled by the STC, the port of Mocha, which is controlled by Brigadier General Tariq Muhammad Abdullah Saleh, and the port of Hodeidah, which is controlled by the Houthis.

The port of Nishtun remained in al-Mahra, which is under Saudi influence, and the port of Mukalla, which is supervised by the local authority, with the influence of the Hadhrami elite loyal to the Emirates.

 

• Massive demonstrations took place in Aden condemning this situation and demanding the departure of the coalition and the government. What is the impact of these events?

Yassin al-Tamimi: The most important thing about these demonstrations is that they showed that the political projects that are being implemented through the transitional Council are isolated, unpopular, and have no sustainability.

Yet, it is too early for these moves to bear the desired outcomes due to the military and security influence of the separatist forces.

 

• What are the possible recovery paths in Yemen?

Yassin al-Tamimi: There are no recovery paths.

 

 

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