Will Kaliningrad Ignite the Spark of Confrontation Between NATO and Russia?

In the midst of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war four months ago, the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad has emerged as a burning hotspot between Russia and the West, after Western reports described it as a dagger in the loin of Europe and a Russian geopolitical weapon to encircle Europe.

However, tensions recently escalated between Russia and NATO after Lithuania imposed restrictions on the transit of goods by land to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, in compliance with the implementation of European Union sanctions on Russia, which raised fears that NATO would be drawn into a direct confrontation with Moscow.

In turn, the governor of the Russian exclave, Anton Alikhanov, published a video in which he says that his neighbor Lithuania has cut off 40-50% of basic goods to his province, which caused a wave of panic among its residents and a hysterical demand for supplies.

Observers believe that the reasons that prompted Russia to intervene against Ukraine are not half the reasons that prompted Russia to intervene against Lithuania now, because the issue is dangerous and related to Russian national security, given that Kaliningrad is Russia's most important strategic location in the Baltics and Putin's arm in the face of Europe.

 

Siege of Kaliningrad

Lithuania, a member state of the European Union and NATO decided, in mid-June 2022, to prevent the transit of freight trains transporting, from Russia to Kaliningrad, goods subject to European sanctions imposed on Russia after its military invasion of Ukraine.

According to European sanctions, the prohibited goods include coal, oil, minerals, cement, fertilizers, and alcohol, which caused panic as video footage showed a state of a buying frenzy in places designated to buy building materials.

Meanwhile, the Russian news agency TASS reported that the transportation of foodstuffs from Russia to Kaliningrad was also prevented.

The Russian authorities have informed the Lithuanian charge d'affaires in Moscow that unless the transit of goods is resumed quickly, Russia reserves the right to act to protect its national interests.

On its part, the Russian Foreign Ministry criticized the ban imposed by Lithuania, saying that it carries with it outright hostility, stressing the need to lift the ban immediately.

The Kremlin described Lithuania's decision to impose a siege on Kaliningrad as an unprecedented violation of everything conceivable, noting that the response would have a serious impact on the Lithuanian people.

In turn, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee for the Protection of Sovereignty, Andrei Klimov, said on June 20, 2022: “NATO begins a siege of one of the Russian entities in the hands of Lithuania, which is a direct aggression against Russia, forcing it to resort to self-defense.”

“If the EU does not immediately correct the shameless move by Vilnius, it will render illegitimate for us all those documents which certify Lithuania's membership of the EU and will open its hands to solve the transit problems of Kaliningrad created by Lithuania by any method we choose,” Klimov added.

“Lithuania joined NATO in 2004, taking into account the problem of crossing into Kaliningrad. Thus, the unacceptable behavior of Vilnius threatens this whole military-political bloc,” he continued.

Kaliningrad is located between Lithuania and Poland, on the southern coast of the Baltic Sea, and the exclave receives many supplies via trains that pass from Lithuania and Belarus.

However, Moscow can still supply it by sea without being subject to EU sanctions.

Amid Western fears that Lithuania might be on Russia's list of targets after Ukraine, the European Union ambassador called on Moscow to solve the problem of crossing to Kaliningrad diplomatically.

In the midst of this tension, German Chancellor Olaf Schulz confirmed, on June 21, 2022, his country's strong support for Lithuania and the Eastern European allies.

On the other hand, the United States stressed to Lithuania, a member of NATO, that any attack on a NATO member would be considered an attack on the entire alliance.

It is noteworthy that one of the main pillars of the NATO alliance is the concept of collective defense, known as Article 5, and this means that if a member is attacked, it is considered an attack on the entire alliance with all members having an obligation to protect each other.

In turn, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said that his country is implementing the sanctions imposed by the EU, noting that the measures that were implemented were taken after consulting with the European Commission and in accordance with its guidelines.

“Russian goods subject to EU sanctions will no longer be allowed to cross Lithuanian territory,” Landsbergis added.

 

A Flashpoint in Tensions

For a long time, Kaliningrad was part of Germany, but the exclave became part of Russia in 1946 and was formally occupied by the Soviet Union after the war in Europe ended.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and then the accession of Poland and the Baltic states to the EU in 2004, the problem of the movement of Russian citizens and the transport of goods to and from Kaliningrad arose, and a way was reached for the transit of individuals and goods for the residents of the region according to procedures agreed upon by Russia, Poland, Lithuania, and the EU.

The Suwałki Gap, with a length of about 104 km, was established on the land border between Poland and Lithuania, linking the territory of Belarus (allied with Russia) with Kaliningrad.

During the past period, Kaliningrad was the subject of controversy between Russia and European countries, as former Deputy Minister of Defense of Poland Romuald Sheremetiev called for the need to disarm Kaliningrad, describing the region as a powder keg on which NATO sits.

Weeks ago, NATO began massive naval exercises in the Baltic Sea near the Russian exclave for a period of two weeks, with the participation of 16 countries, including Finland and Sweden.

According to press reports, Moscow is using Kaliningrad to threaten Europe, as its port is free of ice all year round, unlike many Russian ports. As it is also headquarters to its Baltic Fleet, the exclave served as a stronghold during both World Wars and a defensive fortress during the Cold War.

Moscow announced last month that in Kaliningrad, the Russian army simulated the launch of nuclear missiles at imagined hostile sites in Europe.

However, Sweden expressed its fears of using that area to launch a naval attack on its island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea.

The same fears were expressed by NATO, which indicated that Moscow could use the exclave to invade Poland and Lithuania by creating a land corridor from its territory to Belarus.

According to observers, any direct Russian attack on Lithuania, a member of NATO, will be seen as an act of war against NATO and may ignite World War III.

While Moscow believes that NATO's expansion in northwest Europe near its borders is based on long-term plans and that the inclusion of Finland and Sweden in the alliance came to impose a siege on the Kaliningrad exclave and the Russian fleet in the Baltic Sea.

Andrey Gurulyov, member of the Duma's defense committee, said that London would be the first city to be bombed by Russia if the siege of Kaliningrad, led to a war with NATO.

 

Expected Scenarios

In turn, political researcher Mahmoud Alloush stressed in a statement to Al-Estiklal that “the Kaliningrad issue could indeed turn into a new flashpoint between Moscow and NATO, in light of the great collapse in Russian-Western relations.”

“Lithuania's restrictions on transit between Russia and Kaliningrad, even if they are part of the implementation of sanctions, threaten to further exacerbate tension with Russia,” he pointed out.

“Europe has no interest in fueling the conflict with Russia, and this requires a smart policy in applying sanctions so that their application does not lead to the isolation of Kaliningrad from Russia,” he noted.

Mr. Alloush also stressed that “the agreements concluded between Lithuania and Russia prior to its accession to the EU in 2004 included the free passage of goods and people along the railway line between Russia and Kaliningrad, but EU sanctions against Russia give Vilnius the power to inspect shipments to ensure that no prohibited goods are transported through its territory.”

“The Suwałki Gap is Russia’s only land supply link to Kaliningrad. Moscow views these steps as an attempt to restrict its access to its own territory. It treats this issue as a security threat to it before it is a restriction on the transit of its goods to and from Kaliningrad,” he continued.

“The Russian attack on Ukraine revealed that the rules that had deterred Russia during the past decades from attacking NATO members in the Baltics no longer exist,” Mr. Alloush pointed out.

“NATO seeks to adapt to the profound transformations that occurred in the European security structure as a result of the war by strengthening the Eastern Front and bringing in new members to it,” he explained.

However, an analysis by the Economist magazine revealed the difficulties that Moscow would face, if it saw its exploitation, in the event of a war with its neighbors or NATO.

Kaliningrad is a region that provides Russia's first line of defense from the west, says Jonas Kjellen, an analyst at FOI, Sweden’s state defense-research agency, noting that this region is full of radar systems that provide air surveillance of central Europe.

According to the Economist, Russia supplied Kaliningrad in 2012 with the Russian S-400 long-range missile defense system, and in 2016, it sent short-range Iskander missiles, bringing nuclear warheads uncomfortably close to European cities.

In turn, the Kremlin justified this by saying that it is a necessary step to confront the growing US military presence in the region.

Although Russia has not admitted to having nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, the Federation of American Scientists concluded in 2018 that the Kremlin had significantly modernized a nuclear weapons cache in the region, based on an analysis of satellite imagery.

According to a study by the Rand Corporation for Strategic Research, Russia's seizure of the Suwałki Gap, which is the most important gap in the defenses of the Western Alliance, will cut off the Baltic states and Poland from its allies, isolate the northern region of NATO, paralyze communications, and complicate aid to it.

“This will contribute to the possibility of the fall of the capitals of Estonia and Latvia within sixty hours, as well as the ability of advanced Russian air defense systems to disrupt the airspace in the Baltic states and Poland,” the study revealed.

It is noteworthy that Russia deploys in Kaliningrad, according to Western figures, about 200,000 of its forces, a number of S-400 and S-300 air defense batteries, the Iskander-M long-range ballistic missile system, in addition to the Baltiysk naval base where the Russian Baltic Fleet is based.