Why Will the US Defend Taiwan Against an Attack From China?

The United States has recently taken several decisions and measures related to the manufacture of electronic chips within the framework of the economic war with China.

Although it limits China's capabilities and makes America sit on the throne of that industry, it harms American companies as well.

On October 8, the United States announced a raft of punitive measures to restrict sales of chip technology to China in an effort to impede the Chinese military's current military advance.

 

New Regulations

Under the new rules, US companies will be barred from selling certain chips used in the development of supercomputers and artificial intelligence to Chinese companies.

The restrictions are also aimed at banning sales from foreign companies that use US equipment and technology.

The United States has previously banned the sale of technology to specific Chinese companies, such as Huawei, for national security reasons, but the new measures go much further, with many aimed at preventing foreign companies from selling advanced semiconductors to China or equipping them with the tools to make advanced chips.

Washington-based technology company growth expert Mustafa al-Barmawy said in press statements that US decisions aimed at curbing China's capabilities in obtaining or even manufacturing advanced electronic chips are part of the ongoing trade war between the two countries.

He mentioned that this is a continuation of the economic war started by the administration of former US President Donald Trump, and the bulk of that war is technology.

For example, the war that began under Trump has included the imposition of major sanctions on Chinese technology companies operating in the United States, including Huawei, which has been banned from selling 5G products to any country that the United States considers an ally, especially in the military fields.

So far, Huawei has suffered from those decisions, and there has been a significant decline in the company's growth, he said.

The announcement of the new rules against China came from Alan Estevez, the under secretary of the US Department of Commerce, who stressed that his intention behind this was to ensure that the United States did everything in its power to prevent China from acquiring "sensitive technologies with military applications."

 

Strategic Asset

Gloria Shkurti Ozdemir, a researcher in the Foreign Policy Directorate at SETA Foundation, said that the semiconductor industry has become a significant worldwide industry with a massive impact on the global economy.

Along with refined petroleum and vehicles, semiconductors are among the most traded goods in the world.

The market has consistently grown throughout the years, and the most recent statistics indicate that it will reach $555.9 billion in 2021.

Additionally, it is predicted that semiconductor sales will total $633 billion in 2022 and $662 billion in 2023.

10% of the semiconductors produced are made in the United States. But only Taiwan (92%) and South Korea (8%) produce the most cutting-edge semiconductors (below 10 nm), which are essential for the defense industry. Finally, the consumption of semiconductors is dominated by both China and the US.

Despite being the leader in semiconductor design, the United States has limited production capabilities. In 1997, the United States produced 37% of the world's semiconductors; by 2019, this percentage had dropped to just 12%. As a result, the United States is now much more dependent on East Asian nations for the production of semiconductors.

Furthermore, Taiwan produces all of the semiconductors used in American defense systems, as well as 90% of the semiconductors utilized by American businesses. Thus, it is clear why boosting American semiconductor production capacity has been designated as a national security priority.

 

War Scenarios

In an article published in The Atlantic, Jason Matheny, president of the Rand Research Corporation, highlights the real reason Washington will defend Taiwan as a US state and the ways in which the United States could prepare for this potential confrontation.

Taiwan's control of the chip industry was a boon to the global economy, but it now poses a real challenge: Today, Taiwan manufactures most of the world's chips, which are used in almost everything: cars to coffee machines to harvesters harvesting agricultural crops.

The entire world is teeming with components with electronic chips, most of which are manufactured in a few factories located on an island about twice the size of Kuwait.

China views Taiwan as a separatist region and has the task of returning it to its control.

If China tightens its control and seizes Taiwan, there are two things that could happen to supply these chips: first, these factories fall under China's control, and second, these factories are destroyed in the midst of a conflict between the two countries. Either way, there is a global catastrophe that will inevitably occur.

In the first scenario, China could decide to restrict US and allied access to advanced chips, thereby reducing America's technological, military, and economic superiority advantages.

But if the second scenario occurs, the world will experience an economic crisis like no other since the Great Depression (1929).

 

Defense Options

According to Matheny, an additional complication is that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's operations have advantages that are difficult to imagine replicating elsewhere.

For example, the company's advanced research department includes engineers who work in three phases so that the company can work twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week, and this "nightingale army" as it is sometimes known (after the nightingale birds that sing in the evening) sacrifices itself as a redemption for this national goal, the Taiwanese "Silicon Shield."

The problem with the idea of hurrying to defend Taiwan is that if China launches an attack, it may be too late.

If China invades Taiwan, it could destroy the factories that manufacture chips on the coast, while the United States will be at the beginning of the military response to the Chinese attack, and then the world will be effectively on its way to the brink of an economic abyss.

A third option for the United States is to make China's invasion of Taiwan too costly by enabling Taiwan to defend itself. The Biden administration requested early last September to sell $1.1 billion worth of weapons to Taiwan, something Congress is expected to approve of.

The military deal will include air and anti-ship missiles in addition to an estimated $665 million in support of Taiwan's surveillance radar program. But Taiwan may need more defense to deter any premeditated invasion.

Taiwan has an unfortunate history of wasting spending from its defense budget on expensive programs such as fighter jets and surface ships, and neither is likely to survive the early days of a war with China, as some of the very types of weapons the United States has agreed to sell to Taiwan are currently being used by the Ukrainians in their defense war against Russia.

Even more effective is that there are varieties of systems, such as the HIMARS high-traffic missile system, drones, falling munitions, anti-tank missiles, and naval mines, which can do the job at a relatively low cost.

Thus, such a strategy—which has already proven effective in Ukraine—could pay off in two years rather than taking decades. One obstacle in the process of arming Taiwan as quickly as Americans want is the predicament currently in the US arms industry, ironically caused by the chips themselves.

The problem is temporary, but the focus should be on ensuring Taiwan has appropriate defense systems to enhance its security in the fastest and easiest way, Matheny concluded.