What is the Possibility of Manufacturing the First Iranian Nuclear Bomb During the Era of Ibrahim Raisi?
The arrival of a conservative figure to the presidency in Iran raised many questions about the chances of the birth of the first Iranian nuclear bomb during the era of Ibrahim Raisi, especially after the “Vienna Talks” between Washington and Tehran faltered, the Iranian Regime did not extend a monitoring agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
On May 24, 2021, the Iranian authorities agreed to extend the “Nuclear Monitoring” agreement with the (IAEA) for a month; in order to give an opportunity to the Vienna Talks on the “nuclear file”, at that time, Tehran and Washington spoke of “tangible progress”.
Iran's Nuclear Ambition
French newspaper “Le Figaro” published on June 29, 2021, a report confirming that since the start of negotiations with Iran in 2003, Tehran's efforts to build a nuclear bomb have never stopped, it was hardly postponed because of agreements and compromises.
“Le Figaro” asked, “Will there be any benefit from the race against time that has started since Joe Biden's arrival, at a time when European and American pressure is no longer really useful? some fear that the Iranians will use the current time to take the nuclear program to a new level”.
The Regime also refuses to destroy advanced centrifuges and stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, which was developed in violation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action since 2019, according to the French newspaper.
According to “Le Figaro”, the “Israelis” believe that reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Vienna negotiations) will directly lead to the making of the bomb, because by lifting the sanctions, the international community will deprive itself of the only means of pressure it can exert on Iran.
The newspaper quoted Joshua Zarka, Director of Strategic Affairs in the Israeli Foreign Ministry, that: “Americans like us are against making the bomb, but Washington can coexist with Iran on the nuclear threshold, while for us, this is not a viable option, and they will do everything in their power to avoid it”.
The French newspaper concluded that “the arrival of a hard-liner conservative president, seen as a possible successor to the current Supreme Leader, is not actually in favor of constraining Iran's nuclear ambitions”.
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Biden's Pledges
In an attempt to reassure the “Israeli” occupation state, US President Joe Biden confirmed that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon during his rule, he said: “His commitment to Israel is solid, he looks forward to meeting with its new prime minister, Naftali Bennett”.
This came during a meeting between Biden and “Israeli” President Reuven Rivlin on June 29, 2021, he said that the Israeli-American relations are “very excellent”, he added that he was “very comfortable with Biden's pledge that Iran would not obtain a nuclear weapon”.
In his first meeting with a senior “Israeli” official since taking office, Biden said: “I can tell you that Iran will never get a nuclear weapon while I'm in power”.
After talks in the Oval Office, Rivlin told reporters that he was “very satisfied” with Biden's comments on Iran, he stressed the necessity of cooperation between “Israel” and Washington.
The new Iranian president, warned that he would reject any extension of the dialogue on regional security and the ballistic program, he also said that his support for the Vienna talks was “conditional”, it depends on meeting Iranian demands.
Tehran demands that all sanctions be lifted in advance, a condition that the White House is impossible to accept, especially since it must coordinate with Congress.
The Iranian Regime is also demanding an official document ensuring that the USA does not withdraw from the agreement again, which is legally impossible.
Impossible Concessions
After Iran became in the grip of the “revolutionary wing” that opposes returning to the nuclear agreement with the (5+1) great powers, which calls for a return to the previous stage, that is, enrichment of uranium to higher degrees, and possessing nuclear bomb production technology as a “deterrent force”, that is why it demands “impossible concessions” from the US party.
For his part, the writer Muhammad Kawas said in an article published by “Al-Nahar” newspaper on July 1, 2021: “The Iranian nuclear bomb represents an international concern, it expresses the desire of the major international powers (including Russia and China) to close the nuclear club and stop the expansion of its members”.
He added, “In the region, Israel found in the Iranian program a rival adversary, so it must be removed by a knockout, as it did with the Iraqi nuclear program by destroying the July reactor in 1981, or by keeping pace with the international capitals that went to negotiate with Iran before the US joined the talks, and they produce the famous Vienna Agreement of 2015”.
The writer considered that “what is happening in Vienna will not be surprising to the Arab world, and it will not bring anything new with regard to its concerns”.
Whether Washington and Tehran exchanged the language of fire, this detail remains marginal compared to what the administration of Joe Biden and Iran wants, in achieving a “strategic goal” for the two countries to revitalize the nuclear agreement as a result.
About the possibility that the repeated strikes against Iran's nuclear institutions might be prevented without the latter producing a “nuclear bomb”, on June 23, 2021, semi-official Iranian media revealed, the authorities thwarted a “sabotage attempt” targeting a building belonging to the Atomic Energy Organization.
The Hebrew newspaper, Haaretz, reported on June 25, 2021, the “mysterious attack” that took place in Tehran a few days ago, will not stop Iran's nuclear program, nor will efforts to return to the 2015 agreement.
It pointed out that the US administration's intentions are to reach an agreement as soon as possible, it explained that the Biden administration had promised “Israel” that the final agreement would be longer-term and stronger, but this is related to the understandings that will be reached in the future with Iran, after returning to the nuclear agreement, meanwhile, it seems like an “empty pledge”.
