What Are Netanyahu’s Goals in Dismissing His Army Minister?

Reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is considering firing Army Minister Yoav Gallant have thrown the political landscape into turmoil.

A U.S. official said it would be crazy of Netanyahu to fire an experienced minister like Gallant amid a war in Gaza and as Israel might be heading towards a possible all-out war in Lebanon.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid said replacing Army Minister Yoaf Gallant during a war would be a disaster and would buy Netanyahu more time.

Former Israeli war minister Benny Gantz warned that such a deal severely endangers Israeli security, while former military chief Gadi Eisenkot called Sa'ar unqualified for the role.

This would not be the first time Netanyahu has tried to fire Gallant, as the two have been at odds over several government policies, as well as how to end the war in the Gaza Strip, despite their recent agreement to launch a military operation on the northern front (Lebanon).

Netanyahu's Plan

Israeli media recently quoted informed sources as predicting that PM Benjamin Netanyahu, under pressure from his far-right coalition partners, will announce the expansion of the government and the dismissal of Army Minister Yoav Gallant, to be replaced by a former ally turned rival, Gideon Sa'ar.

This news comes at the same time as the Israeli PM's Office announced that the security cabinet has decided to expand the goals of the current war to include returning residents of the north to their homes, after they were displaced due to the cross-border shelling with the Lebanese Hezbollah 11 months ago.

According to a poll published by the Hebrew newspaper Maariv, 24% of those surveyed supported the dismissal of Gallant, while 52% opposed Netanyahu's intention to dismiss him, and 24% had no clear opinion on the matter.

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz said that the escalation of security tensions on the border with Lebanon may postpone Netanyahu's plan to dismiss Gallant and replace him with MK Gideon Sa'ar, chair of the New Hope-The United Right Party.

The newspaper quoted an unnamed Israeli source as saying: “We are in the midst of a complex security situation, and it is not certain whether it is possible to replace the army minister now. But the PM understands that he is in a serious problem.”

“Until the issue of the potential conflict on the northern front is resolved, the issue of dismissing Gallant may be delayed,” the source added.

Hebrew media added that the negotiations between Sa’ar and Netanyahu had already been completed, but the security events and the secret discussions, especially Hezbollah pager explosions, temporarily froze the major political deal that was woven between Netanyahu and Sa’ar in recent days.

Sources familiar with the negotiations confirmed that the move has not been completely canceled, and despite the sensitive security situation, Netanyahu still wants to dismiss Army Minister Gallant.

As for the families of the Israeli hostages, a group representing them said that appointing Gideon Sa’ar would constitute an unambiguous admission by Netanyahu that he has decided to give up the hostages.

The group says “Sa'ar has previously publicly stated that he objects to the hostage deal, calling it a surrender.”

Possible Minister

The Israeli Broadcasting Authority said Netanyahu and Sa'ar hope to finalize a potential deal to expand the ruling coalition and announce a deal that would extend the life of Netanyahu's current government.

According to Israel's Channel 12, the potential deal between the two would see Sa'ar appointed army minister, in addition to Sa'ar pledging to support the government's budget and allow Netanyahu to complete his term until 2026.

Channel 12 reported that “New Hope MK Ze’ev Elkin would be given a ministerial portfolio with responsibilities for the north and fellow MK Sharren Haskel a deputy minister’s post.”

However, Sa'ar will not receive other powers related to judicial reform, such as dismissals and appointments.

The two sides also agreed that Netanyahu will determine in advance the identity of the next Israel army forces chief of staff.

It is not yet clear whether Netanyahu and Sa'ar will wait for the resignation of current chief of staff Herzi Halevi, or move to dismiss him. A decision on this matter is expected to be made later, based on developments in the war.

Netanyahu's office denied a few days ago that there were any talks to include Sa'ar in the government, but did not comment on reports regarding Gallant's dismissal.

On his part, Sa'ar responded to the criticism directed at him, which focused on a document he signed in 2021, in which he pledged at the time not to join a government led by Netanyahu, saying: “I signed in 2021, and I fulfilled my pledge.”

If the post of army minister does not pan out, Sa’ar may receive the foreign minister role while Israel Katz takes over for Gallant, Channel 12 reported.

There is a history of disagreements between Benjamin Netanyahu and Gideon Sa’ar.

Sa’ar, a former Likud minister, broke away from the party in 2020 following disagreements with Netanyahu, and founded an opposition party.

In 2022, Sa’ar stated that “Netanyahu is leading an extremist, provocative and divisive line, and is not fit to lead the country. It is impossible to work with someone who is focused only on his political survival.”

In 2019, Sa’ar presented the first real challenge to Netanyahu within the Likud party in recent years.  The former minister said at the time that Israel needed to change course and unite, indicating that he was the right man to do so and assume the premiership.

In 2014, Sa'ar, then interior minister and the second most powerful figure in the ruling Likud party, abruptly decided to leave politics, before returning to present himself as a potential alternative to Netanyahu.

Deep Disagreements

In recent days, disagreements have increased between Netanyahu and Gallant, against the backdrop of the former's desire to launch a large-scale military operation against Hezbollah.

On September 16, the Israeli Broadcasting Authority reported that Gallant supports exhausting diplomatic efforts to contain the crisis with Hezbollah, while Netanyahu wants to launch a large-scale military campaign.

Gallant also believes that any military operation in Lebanon will harm the possibility of returning Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip because the army will be forced to transfer forces from Gaza to the northern front.

It is noteworthy that Gallant accuses Netanyahu of directly endangering the lives of Israeli hostages by continuing to put obstacles in the way of reaching a deal with the Palestinian resistance.

In March 2023, Netanyahu decided to dismiss Gallant because of his rejection of judicial reforms, but the following month Netanyahu backed down from his decision.

Later, disagreements were also added between Netanyahu and Gallant regarding the recruitment among the ultra-Orthodox community into the army, and whether it was possible to use some Palestinian Authority employees to replace Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Writer and political analyst Ismail Musalmani said that “Netanyahu's disagreement with Gallant, who is considered America's man in Israel's ruling coalition, is not new. Netanyahu is seeking to rearrange priorities in the Israeli political arena, to free himself from the pressures of religious parties.”

He explained in his interview with Al-Estiklal that Netanyahu is promoting Sa'ar's entry into the ruling coalition, stressing that “if he joins the ruling coalition in Israel, we will be facing a more extremist and right-wing government.”

He also indicated that the real reason behind Gallant's possible dismissal is due to pressure from the far-right due to his objection to legislation exempting Ultra-Orthodox school students from military service.

The Israeli affairs expert concluded that dismissing a general from the Ministry of Army and appointing a politician with no military background brings to mind what happened during the 2006 war against the Lebanese Hezbollah, when the Minister of Army at the time was Labor Party leader Amir Peretz, who was dismissed from his post as a result.