Thousands of Marines to the Middle East: Does America Fear the Beginning of the End of Its Influence?

As part of the United States’ strategy to bolster its military presence in the region, the U.S. Fifth Fleet announced on August 7, 2023, the arrival of over three thousand Marines to the Middle East.

The deployment of the Fifth Fleet, often described as Washington’s forward military arm in the Middle East, comes in response to Gulf nations’ concerns about the U.S. appearing to withdraw its security commitment to the Gulf. In turn, Gulf states have sought closer collaboration with America’s regional adversaries, especially Russia and China.

This American move is believed to be aimed at rebuilding Gulf confidence, with an emphasis on strengthening ties with countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain over those with China and Russia.

The Gulf nations have also formally expressed their interest in joining the BRICS group led by China.

However, analysts suggest that the U.S. deployment carries other implications, such as countering Iranian actions, particularly their increased seizure of Gulf-bound oil tankers in response to U.S. sanctions and pressure. This perspective is reinforced by the statement from the Fifth Fleet.

Another view is that U.S. actions primarily aim to prevent this strategically vital region (the Arabian Gulf and the wider Middle East) from falling into the hands of its rivals, Russia and China, and to re-engage in confronting America’s strategic security adversaries in the Arab world.

 

Countering Iran

The statement from the Fifth Fleet underscored that the arrival of 3,000 U.S. sailors to the region has two clear objectives. First, it aims to enhance military presence in the Middle East without explicitly specifying against whom. It may implicitly allude to the growing presence of China and Russia in the region.

The second explicit goal, according to the statement, is to deter Iran from seizing ships and oil tankers.

This objective may seem unusual given the recent revelation of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran on August 12, 2023, for a prisoner and money exchange. Analysts consider this agreement as a prelude to comprehensive de-escalation that could lead to a revival of the nuclear deal and a lifting of U.S. sanctions.

On August 8, 2023, Tim Hawkins, the spokesperson for the U.S. Fifth Fleet, stated to the French news agency that the deployment operation aims to deter destabilizing activities and reduce regional tensions resulting from Iran’s harassment and seizure of commercial vessels.”

In addition to sending over three thousand new troops to the region, the Navy also deployed two warships in the Red Sea: the amphibious assault ship USS Bataan and the landing ship USS Carter Hall. The former is capable of carrying more than 20 aircraft, according to the statement.

The U.S. military claims that Iran seized or attempted to seize nearly 20 ships in the region during 2021 and 2022.

Washington announced that its forces thwarted two Iranian attempts to seize oil tankers in international waters off Oman on July 5, 2023, while Iran seized a commercial vessel the following day.

In April and early May 2023, Iran seized two tankers within a week in regional waters and launched a drone attack on an Israeli-owned tanker in November 2022.

The French news agency quoted an unnamed U.S. official in early August 2023 regarding plans to deploy security detachments composed of elements from the Marine Corps and Navy aboard commercial ships passing through or near the Strait of Hormuz, providing an additional defensive layer for these vulnerable vessels.

On July 18, 2023, the United States announced the dispatch of additional F-35 and F-16 fighter jets alongside a warship to the Middle East in an attempt to monitor the key waterways in the region.

 

Gulf Relations

Relations between Washington and both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have been strained due to what Gulf states perceive as insufficient U.S. support when Iranian Houthi missiles struck Saudi Aramco oil facilities and areas in Dubai.

On May 31, 2023, the UAE announced its withdrawal from the Unified Maritime Forces coalition led by the United States in the Middle East, signaling discontent.

Two days after Washington announced the arrival of its Marines to the Middle East, the UAE and China initiated their first joint military aerial exercises. The UAE Ministry of Defense did not specify the location or duration of the exercises, but they reflect the growing military cooperation between the two countries, which has raised concerns in the United States.

A report by The New York Times on August 8, 2023, affirmed that the UAE’s political moves are unsettling President Joe Biden’s administration, as it is unclear whether Abu Dhabi intends to dispense with America, modify the shape of its alliance, or increasingly pursue an independent path.

Through this move, Abu Dhabi seeks to draw Washington’s attention to its seriousness in diversifying its security partners, even if the latter considers them a significant challenge to its global dominance.

On November 19, 2021, The Wall Street Journal published an article discussing China’s establishment of a military base near Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi, which provoked Washington’s ire, prompting swift action to thwart the project.

However, U.S. intelligence noted in December 2022 a resumption of construction on the project, as reported by The Washington Post on April 26, 2023. This suggests China’s gradual military infiltration in the Gulf region, a move that has not provoked a harsh U.S. response.

Saudi Arabia’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), its formal application to join the BRICS group, and the signing of agreements under Chinese sponsorship are also seen by analysts as responses to Washington’s perceived laxity in deterring Iran and its regional proxies, notably the Houthi militia in Yemen.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is an international organization founded on June 15, 2001, consisting of eight member states: China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

Several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, have recently joined the SCO as “dialogue partners,” with strong endorsement from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex and multifaceted, with countries in the Middle East seeking to diversify their alliances and assert their interests in the face of shifting regional dynamics.

 

Attraction Center

The inclusion of these countries has raised questions about the possibility of this organization evolving into a new hub for Middle Eastern nations looking to distance themselves from American dominance.

The UAE became the latest Arab country to be officially granted the status of “dialogue partner” within the organization.

This occurred on the sidelines of the meeting of the foreign ministers of member states held on May 4–5, 2023.

Despite the strained relations between Riyadh and Washington, the latter has intensified its diplomatic efforts towards Riyadh in recent months, although experts believe this may be linked to normalization plans with “Israel.”

However, some broad outlines of the U.S. strategy for the Middle East have begun to emerge ahead of the U.S. elections scheduled for November 2024.

According to U.S. newspapers, the White House’s plan revolves around enticing Saudi Arabia towards normalization with “Israel” and distancing it from the alliance with China. In return, the U.S. aims to sign a security agreement with Saudi Arabia and assist in its civilian nuclear project.

In an interview with AFP on August 7, 2023, political analyst Torbjorn Soltvedt emphasized that “security will remain a friction point in U.S.–Gulf relations even if the threat posed by Iranian attacks against shipping eases in the short term.

The perception persists that the United States is not doing enough to counter Iranian attacks on international shipping, and there is a need for a new and clear American approach.

In a report by AFP in its English version on August 16, 2023, it was noted that the increase in the U.S. military presence in the Gulf is a step demanded by the Arab Gulf states, which accused Washington of withdrawing from the region.

The agency quoted Tim Hawkins, the spokesperson for the U.S. Fifth Fleet, on August 16, 2023, as saying that there is a growing and increasing threat to regional sailors regarding Iran’s seizure of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that this is the reason they are here.

According to Hawkins, the 3,000 Marines and U.S. warships will be added to the more than 30,000 soldiers already present in the Middle East.

 

Direct Confrontation

An analysis by the Atalayar website affirmed that the deployment of these additional forces comes within the context of the competition between China and the United States for influence in the Arabian Gulf.

The site explained in a report published on August 9, 2023, that the American deployment comes at a time when Chinese presence is increasing in the Gulf region, with Beijing being the primary threat to Washington since it is the only state whose economy and influence can challenge the United States as a global leader.

In April 2023, Beijing mediated a deal to restore diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, reopening their embassies after seven years of tensions.

Since then, relations between Tehran and the Arab Gulf states have gradually evolved through official visits.

U.S. officials have expressed concerns about Chinese arms sales in the Middle East, warning that they could undermine the ability of the U.S. military to integrate with its partners in the region. This was reported by Business Insider on August 18, 2023.

The British website quoted experts as saying that China does not offer the region’s countries weapons that can directly replace American weapons. However, the growing interest in what Beijing is selling reflects the long-term desire of Middle Eastern countries to diversify their suppliers and their increasing concerns about the U.S. commitment to the region.

Chinese arms sales in the Middle East have increased by 80 percent over the past decade due to Beijing’s expanded relations with the countries in the region and its readiness to deliver weapons more quickly and on less stringent terms than Washington.

Since 1987, at the request of Congress, the United States has issued National Security Strategies, and since 2002, the United States has issued 18 strategies covering the terms of previous presidents and the current president, Biden.

 

Declining Influence

Many American voices have spoken in recent months about the beginning of the end of American influence in the world, whether at the political or even economic level, as U.S. interest in some areas of influence has waned, leaving them to China and Russia, in the midst of the significant changes occurring in the international system in recent times and the emergence of new powers on the international stage.

Newsweek pointed out on May 3, 2023, that the era that witnessed the dominance of the United States is coming to an end in the Middle East.

It quoted Frank Giustra, the chairman of the International Crisis Group, as saying that the world’s countries’ abandonment of reliance on the U.S. dollar has become an inevitable necessity, as an example of this decline in influence.

Giustra said that the idea of losing the dollar’s dominance did not occur to the majority of advanced countries in the world.

The Newsweek report affirmed the statement made by Chinese President Xi Jinping to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Moscow in March 2023 that “the world today is undergoing great changes, the likes of which we have not seen for 100 years,” was not just a rhetorical phrase but closer to being a reality expressing significant change in the international system.

It explained that this is very evident in the Middle East, where the United States has devoted a lot of its resources to shaping the 21st-century system, but the signs of this change, which is not in America’s favor, can easily be seen with evidence.

China succeeded in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran, causing Beijing to take over the mediator role that Washington had held for decades among the region’s countries.

“We bluster, we threaten, we menace, we sanction, we send the Marines, we bomb,” says Chas Freeman, a veteran U.S. diplomat, to Newsweek, “but we don’t ever use the arts of persuasion.”

The Global Policy Journal also quoted Freeman as saying, “The world is now composed not of a dominant, single, unified domain dominated by the United States, as it may have been briefly after the Cold War. The world is composed of multiple competing regional centers — and we’ve done a good deal to bring that about … [International law and regulation] has been replaced in our minds by something called the ‘rules-based order,’ in which we make the rules and decide who they apply to and who is exempt from them. That’s not very persuasive.

“We need to rediscover the merits of diplomacy, which begins with empathy. Where is the other guy coming from? You can’t persuade anybody effectively, you can intimidate them, but you can’t persuade them, if you don’t address their concerns and their worldview.”