Le Monde: Warnings of a "Real Collapse" in Mali, after Macron’s Cut in Subsidies
The French newspaper “Le Monde” reported that President Emmanuel Macron's announcement on June 10, 2021 to halve French military support by 2023 surprised the authority in Mali, a country that oscillates between "misery and political tensions".
Le Monde added that the new interim president, Asim Guetta, "knew that he had been under French surveillance since the May 24, 2021 coup."
The suspension of bilateral military cooperation announced by Paris on June 3, 2021, is the first warning signal sent to the military council.
Le Monde revealed that "It was aware, according to its sources, that Macron would undoubtedly take advantage of this second coup in less than 9 months to rush towards violating the agreement and announce the reduction of the workforce in the framework of Operation Barkhane, which he declared since the N'Djamena summit in February 2021."
However, the announcement of the end of this external operation on 11 June is for Bamako a "very heavy surprise" that worries the authorities, who have remained silent in front of the public.
Gotha and his Prime Minister Chogoel Maiga believed that they had provided sufficient guarantees to the international community, in particular with regard to respecting the electoral date that is supposed to put an end to the transitional period in February 2022.
A roadmap, "setting the main lines of government action to meet the various objectives" would have to be presented by the end of July 2021, and a "largely civilian" government will be appointed in the coming days.
French Disengagement
On June 9, 2021, the presidents of Mali's neighbors "congratulated" and "encouraged" the new authorities, according to Le Monde.
Two days later, Macron's words in which he criticized "the decision to recognize the leader of a military coup" sounded as bad in Bamako as the red line mentioned by the French president regarding negotiating with terrorists.
"Macron must pay attention to his communicative style. When he may adopt a certain format, Malians may consider it an interference in their affairs, which is understandable," said former Finance Minister Ibrahim Ndiaye.
In December 2019, Macron's summoning of G5 Sahel heads of state to the French city of Pau was considered "undiplomatic".
Malians considered Macron’s speech in Paris as "another insult", in the context of rising sentiment against the French presence in recent months.
Le Monde pointed out that "after 8 years of French military intervention and mixed results, to say the least, a large group of millions of people blame France for the spread of terrorism."
"Paris would be militarily ineffective and too invasive politically," it added.
France has launched "Operation Barkhane" in Mali since 2014 with the aim of eliminating armed groups in the African Sahel and limiting their influence, and the United Nations sent 15,000 soldiers to stabilize Mali, but the security threat has not been eliminated.
Mali Collapsing
The story is different in northern Mali, says Le Monde.
A former rebel from the north, who signed the 2015 peace agreement, warns, "The people of Bamako have never known war! They shout for France to leave, without understanding that the day Operation Barkhane will end is the day Mali will end. The terrorists will take over the cities, as they did at the beginning of the war in 2012."
Concern is also widespread among the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA).
On June 11, a few hours before Macron announcement, the head of the UN mission, Elgasim Wani, expressed his concerns, saying: “The suspension of French cooperation with Mali may lead to an increase in the tasks of MINUSMA. It is also possible that it will increase pressure on our forces.”
MINUSMA, holding the task of combating terrorism, sees its bases regularly targeted for attacks (14 attacks in the past three months), and fears, in addition, that it will become isolated.
Some diplomats fear that the few civilian officials still stationed in northern Mali (14 percent at the end of April, according to the United Nations) will flee if Operation Barkhane reduces its presence.
The French journalist quoted one of these diplomats as saying: "The danger of the collapse of the state is real, and even if it is currently unpredictable, everything will become possible."
