Lavrov Strengthens Russia-Iran Ties Amid Nuclear and Regional Tensions

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent visit to Iran has raised numerous questions, particularly as it followed high-level meetings in the Turkish capital, Ankara, and came on the heels of U.S.-Russia talks hosted in Riyadh.

Lavrov’s last trip to Tehran was in October 2023, when he attended a summit aimed at easing tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia after a fresh outbreak of military clashes. In that conflict, Moscow and Tehran backed Armenia, while Turkey firmly supported Azerbaijan.

Lavrov’s Tehran Talks

During Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Tehran on February 25, 2025, two key issues loomed large: Iran’s nuclear program and the evolving situation in Syria. 

Both topics featured prominently in joint statements by Lavrov and his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi.

A statement from Russia’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that Lavrov held wide-ranging discussions with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi, noting that "views aligned on the situation surrounding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program."

Russia remains one of the original signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal, alongside the United States, China, France, the UK, and Germany. The agreement lifted sanctions on Tehran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear activities.

Beyond nuclear diplomacy, Lavrov’s talks covered a broad spectrum of regional issues, including Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and the Israeli Occupation of Palestine. Following his meetings, the Russian foreign minister departed for Qatar.

At a press conference in Tehran, Lavrov insisted that diplomacy remains a viable path for resolving the nuclear issue. 

He described the discussions as “detailed and productive,” highlighting last year’s two summits between the Russian and Iranian presidents, which led to a landmark treaty aimed at strengthening cooperation across all sectors.

On the nuclear deal, Lavrov was unequivocal, “We believe diplomatic opportunities remain and must be seized. We hope for a resolution because this crisis was not caused by Iran.”

Discussions on Syria featured prominently in Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Tehran, with both Moscow and Tehran reaffirming their shared commitment to the country’s stability. 

Lavrov stressed that an “inclusive political process” remains essential and that the outcome of Syria’s parliamentary elections would help define the new government’s objectives. 

However, he was unequivocal in Moscow’s stance: Russia remains firmly committed to Syria’s stability and territorial integrity.

For his part, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described his talks with Lavrov as “constructive and productive,” emphasizing that coordination between Tehran and Moscow continues across multiple fronts. 

“Today, we held extensive discussions and reviewed several important issues,” he said.

Araghchi also announced plans for a joint economic commission meeting between Iran and Russia, scheduled for April 2025.

He underscored the close consultations between the two nations on Iran’s nuclear program, stating that both sides remain in constant contact and will continue their discussions.

“We briefed Lavrov on the details of our negotiations with the three European countries,” Araghchi noted, adding that Iran continues to coordinate its position with Russia and China on the nuclear file.

“Our stance on nuclear negotiations is clear—we will not negotiate under pressure, threats, or sanctions. As long as the U.S. maintains its maximum pressure policy, direct talks are not an option,” the Iranian foreign minister stated on the potential talks with Washington.

Turning to regional affairs, Araghchi reaffirmed Tehran’s commitment to Syria, stating, “We will continue to support peace and stability in Syria and remain steadfast in our backing of the resistance axis in the region.”

A Potential De-Escalation

Assessing the outcomes of Sergei Lavrov’s discussions in Tehran, Iranian affairs expert Mostafa al-Nuaimi suggested that nuclear negotiations between Iran and Western powers—including the U.S., the UK, and the EU—had reached an impasse.

“Opening new fronts against Iran has become increasingly necessary given the perceived threats posed by Tehran’s nuclear ambitions,” al-Nuaimi told Al-Estiklal.

He pointed to Iran’s refusal to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities and its decision to deactivate monitoring systems belonging to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), calling it a serious provocation.

He predicted that further deliberations on Iran’s nuclear program would take place but under Washington’s firm control. 

However, al-Nuaimi downplayed Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon, citing both technological limitations and the persistent threat of Israeli military intervention. 

“Israel has already targeted Iran’s hypersonic missile program, which was used in strikes against Israeli territory,” he noted.

Al-Nuaimi dismissed Iranian nuclear threats as exaggerated but suggested they provided the U.S. with justification to reimpose its maximum pressure strategy. 

He pointed out that the snapback mechanism—designed during the Obama administration to reinstate sanctions should Iran breach its commitments—remains a viable option for Washington, potentially leading to a fresh wave of economic penalties.

He also dismissed speculation that Lavrov’s recent visit to Turkiye was linked to Iran, asserting that U.S.-Russia rapprochement would not translate into joint pressure on Tehran. 

“If the U.S. perceives an imminent threat, it will act alone,” he said, adding that Washington has a variety of tools at its disposal.

Among those tools, he noted, is the supply of advanced bunker-busting GBU-43 missiles to Israel—weaponry designed specifically to penetrate fortified nuclear sites. 

“Tel Aviv likely has a substantial stockpile of these missiles and could deploy them if negotiations reach a dead end,” he suggested.

Al-Nuaimi concluded that Lavrov’s diplomatic tour of the Middle East and Turkiye was largely about Russia seeking to reassert itself in the region, particularly in Syria and Libya. 

However, he argued that any deals Moscow might strike—whether with Ankara or others—would not significantly undermine U.S. interests, particularly given Washington’s entrenched presence in Syria, where Turkiye also operates.

Russia Steps Back

Former Iranian MP Nozar Shafiee, who previously served on the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, believes that no high-level U.S.-Russia dialogue—whether on Ukraine, ties with Beijing, or broader geopolitical issues—can take place without addressing Iran.

Speaking to ILNA on February 25, Shafiee suggested that Sergei Lavrov was likely to brief Iranian officials on his discussions with U.S. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, conveying Washington’s demands of Tehran and its expectations of Moscow’s relationship with Iran.

When asked whether Lavrov was carrying a message from Syria’s new leadership following Russia’s renewed engagement with Damascus after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Shafiee downplayed the significance. 

He argued that the key focus of Lavrov’s visit was the evolving dynamics between Tehran, Moscow, and Washington.

Shafiee, now an international relations professor at the University of Tehran, predicted that Lavrov’s visit could yield precise and far-reaching outcomes—including a potential recalibration or weakening of ties between Tehran and Moscow. 

He suggested that if tensions between Iran and Washington escalate, Moscow may choose to redefine the distance it keeps from Tehran.

He further suggested that Iran might opt to maintain its current course, regardless of any warnings relayed by Lavrov. If so, Tehran could find itself locked in fresh tensions with Washington and “Tel Aviv”—though without any direct Russian intervention.

Looking ahead, Shafiee argued that as Russia seeks to reshape its ties with the U.S., Turkiye, and Syria, it is unlikely to fully align with Tehran’s foreign policy ambitions. 

“This is possibly one of the key points Lavrov raised with Iranian officials,” he added.

He did not rule out the possibility of Washington accepting continued Russian control over parts of occupied Ukraine—on the condition that Moscow scales back or severs ties with Tehran.

While Lavrov’s talks in Tehran may not have explicitly touched on this issue, Shafiee suggested that it would not be difficult to infer such implications from the broader discussions. 

He predicted that Moscow would recalibrate its approach to Iran based on the future trajectory of U.S.-Russia relations.

Ahead of Lavrov’s arrival, Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that the visit was aimed at discussing Syria and regional developments following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government on December 8, 2024. Both Russia and Iran had been al-Assad’s staunchest allies.

Similarly, the Russian Foreign Ministry had stated before the visit that Lavrov and his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, would address a range of regional issues, including Syria, Yemen, and broader Middle Eastern stability, alongside developments in the nuclear negotiations over Iran’s atomic program.