Iran's Nuclear Ultimatum: Tensions Rise as 2015 Deal Nears Expiration

In a significant development, for the first time, Iran has threatened to acquire a nuclear weapon if the West continues to pressure it with sweeping sanctions, according to the country's highest-ranking official.

The warning came from Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, ahead of a meeting between Iranian and European negotiators in Geneva on 29 November 2024, aimed at discussing the renewal of the nuclear agreement set to expire in October 2025.

According to Al-Estiklal, Araghchi said “If the West continues to threaten Tehran with the re-imposition of sanctions, Iran may move towards acquiring nuclear weapons. We want to know whether the European Union seeks cooperation or confrontation.”

It seems both Iran and Europe are attempting to break the nuclear deadlock before the return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House on 20 January 2024. 

During his first term (2016-2020), Trump pursued a "maximum economic pressure" strategy against Tehran.

“The decision to hold a further round of talks following a meeting in Geneva on Friday suggests the two sides believe there is still diplomatic space for an agreement whereby Iran would be more transparent about its nuclear program in return for the lifting of economic sanctions. But the chances of even an outline agreement before Trump returns to power seems remote,” as reported by The Guardian.

Implications of the Threats

Before Operation al-Aqsa Flood and its military fallout between “Israel,” Hezbollah, and Iran, “Tel Aviv” was concerned about striking Iran's nuclear facilities without American support, fearing the outbreak of a regional war and the potential damage Hezbollah could inflict on the occupation state.

However, the military setbacks suffered by Hezbollah and the damage inflicted on Iran's air defense capabilities due to the recent Israeli strike may now increase “Israel's” appetite for targeting Iran’s nuclear program, according to Western assessments.

These military and regional shifts, combined with mounting pressure on Iran, have led to a series of warnings from Iranian officials about the possibility of Tehran altering its nuclear strategy and moving toward developing a nuclear bomb.

Currently, with Iran more vulnerable to Israeli and American attacks, its defenses relatively exposed, and facing difficulties in expanding its ballistic missile stockpile, the likelihood of Tehran reconsidering its nuclear strategy has grown significantly.

Iran's temptation to use its nuclear program as a deterrent against “Israel”—and possibly the United States—could grow significantly with the election of Donald Trump, Tehran's arch-enemy, and his return to a more hardline leadership in the U.S., along with the impending expiration of the nuclear deal with the West in October 2025, with no renewal or new agreement in sight.

Additionally, Iran's relative proximity to military-grade enrichment and the potential development of a nuclear bomb may push its leadership to take this final step in its nuclear evolution, after years of stagnation in Tehran’s nuclear strategy.

“The nuclear debate inside Iran is likely to shift towards the possession of its own weapons if the West goes ahead with a threat to reimpose all UN sanctions,” Abbas Araghchi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, said in an interview with The Guardian.

"Iran already had the capability and knowledge to create nuclear weapons, but [...] they did not form part of its security strategy."

If European countries reimposed sanctions on Iran at the UN Security Council "then they [will] have convinced everybody in Iran that, yes, your doctrine has been wrong," Araghchi added.

The recent statements have raised questions about the implications, significance, and potential consequences of Iran's nuclear threats, coming at a time when tensions are escalating and “Israel” has already launched two military strikes against it. 

Is this related to the rumors that Tehran has already produced a nuclear bomb and is preparing to announce it, but has refrained from doing so until it has the missile capability to deliver it to its enemies, particularly “Israel”?

Or has Iran indeed begun to change its military doctrine in response to the mounting Israeli and American threats?

The possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons has clearly alarmed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who appeared on Channel 14, an Israeli network aimed at the country’s religiously conservative (Haredi) audience, to threaten military action to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons "if necessary."

“I will do everything to prevent it from becoming a nuclear (power), I will use all the resources that can be used,” Netanyahu told Israeli broadcaster Channel 14.

“Israel” remains the only country in the region with nuclear weapons, although it has never publicly acknowledged its arsenal. 

For years, it has prioritized neutralizing any potential rivals, including through the destruction of Iraq’s nuclear reactor.

Before Araghchi's statements, assessments in the U.S. and Western countries had increased regarding Iran accelerating its nuclear program to produce an atomic bomb, as a way to compensate for the weakening of the 'Axis of Resistance' it leads, particularly in Lebanon.

Western assessments suggest that the increasing threats from “Israel” and the U.S.—which include the potential destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities and program, as well as efforts to undermine its defenses—have raised concerns that Iran may now view nuclear weapons as the most viable defense strategy.

On 3 October 2024, Bloomberg quoted U.S. and Israeli officials who suggested that recent setbacks “may have an unintended and dangerous consequence, according to current and former government officials in the US, Israel, and the Arab world. They fear that Iran, backed into a corner and feeling more threatened, may speed up its nuclear advances and pursue atomic weapons,” in response to what it sees as growing threats to its national security.

In early October 2024, a study by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists indicated that “Tehran may see the actual weaponization of its nuclear program as the only option left that can guarantee the security of the Iranian regime.”

Following “Israel’s” latest strike on Iran in late October 2024, Axios reported on 15 November 2024 that Israeli and U.S. officials confirmed the destruction of a secret facility in the Parchin area. 

“One of the targets of the Israeli strike was the Taleghan 2 facility in the Parchin military complex.” Officials said, “The strike — which targeted a site previously reported to be inactive — significantly damaged Iran's effort over the past year to resume nuclear weapons research.”

New Plans

A confidential report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), published by Reuters on 29 November 2024, reveals that  “Iran has informed the U.N. nuclear watchdog that it plans to install more than 6,000 extra uranium-enriching centrifuges at its enrichment plants” and to activate more of the machines already installed.

The report detailed what “Iran meant when it said it would add thousands of centrifuges in response to a resolution against it that the IAEA's 35-nation Board of Governors passed last week at the request of Britain, France, Germany, and the United States.”

The report outlined “plans to install 32 more cascades, or clusters, of more than 160 machines each and a massive cascade of up to 1,152 advanced IR-6 machines.”

“More enrichment capacity means Iran can enrich uranium more quickly, potentially increasing the nuclear proliferation risk,” despite Tehran’s repeated denials of “seeking nuclear weapons.”

According to data from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the global nuclear watchdog, Iran’s nuclear program is producing enough enriched uranium—at a purity level of 60%—to make one nuclear bomb every three months.

This material can then be further enriched to 90%, the threshold used for most nuclear weapons, to produce 15 kilograms of fuel required for a basic warhead.

“Western powers say there is no civil explanation for enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% that is weapons grade, which no other country has done without producing a nuclear bomb.”

“Iran already has well over 10,000 centrifuges operating at two underground plants at Natanz and Fordow and an above-ground pilot plant at Natanz.”

According to the IAEA, both facilities are currently enriching uranium to levels of at least 60%.

The disclosure of this report came after the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), consisting of 35 countries, adopted a resolution on November 21, 2024, condemning Iran for its lack of cooperation, under European prompting.

Tehran dismissed the IAEA’s recent decision as “politically motivated,” responding by announcing the activation of "new advanced centrifuges" designed to increase its stockpile of enriched uranium, though it did not provide a timeline for their deployment.

In response, the European group attempted during the Geneva meeting on 29 November 2024 to renegotiate with Iran, seeking to reduce the enrichment level to below 60% while ramping up the operation of its centrifuges and increasing uranium feedstock.

Iran’s aim in the Swiss talks, according to Iranian political science professor Mostafa Shir Mohammadi in an interview with Agence France-Presse, was to avoid a "catastrophic double-bind" that would once again pit Iran against both the U.S. and Europe over its nuclear policies.

Compounding the already fraught nuclear issue are Western accusations that Iran has supplied Russia with explosive drones for its war in Ukraine, claims Tehran has vehemently denied.

A Decisive Year

A report published by the Atlantic Council on 20 November 2024 suggests that 2025 is “crucial for the future of the Iranian nuclear program.”

The report cites several reasons for this assessment, including factors tied to the nuclear deal, “some of which are associated with tensions in Iran and even regionally and internationally as a direct result of the campaign between Israel and members of the Axis of Resistance (specifically Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Shia militias in Iraq) that began on October 7, 2023.” 

“These events and developments will bring the Iranian nuclear program to a strategic junction in the coming year, affecting not only the nuclear file but also the Islamic Republic’s broad security strategy and its relations with the international community and the region. Iran will be forced to make a historic decision,” 

According to the Atlantic Council’s assessment, Iran has already succeeded in enriching uranium to nearly 90% purity.

“Although Tehran is careful not to cross the line of military-grade enrichment (90 percent), the program has progressed without interruption.”

“While Iran is suffering from sanctions imposed on it following the US withdrawal, it hasn’t paid an additional price for its flagrant violation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),” as mentioned by the Atlantic Council, “in 2018, Iran’s nuclear program has progressed almost unimpeded.”

While European powers continue to attempt to deter Tehran with threats of a return of Donald Trump to power and Western reports speculate about Iran possibly having already developed a nuclear bomb—or at least the capacity to detonate one in the desert—recent assessments by U.S. intelligence agencies have dismissed claims that Iran is approaching a nuclear military threshold.

“According to the latest assessment published by the US intelligence community, Tehran has not yet made a strategic decision to move toward nuclear weapons. But even if Iran’s leadership doesn’t indicate a desire to obtain a nuclear weapon, technological work is underway that goes beyond the lines of a civilian program,” as stated by the Atlantic Council. 

On 11 October 2024, Reuters quoted U.S. officials asserting that “the United States still believes that Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon despite Tehran's recent strategic setbacks, including Israel's killing of Hezbollah leaders and two largely unsuccessful attempts to attack Israel.”

“The comments from a senior Biden administration official and a spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) added to public remarks earlier this week by CIA Director William Burns, who said the United States had not seen any evidence Iran's leader had reversed his 2003 decision to suspend the weaponization program.”

On 5 October 2024, “an Armenian station detected a 4.6 magnitude seismic event in Iran last night. Researchers noted that it lacked a seismic compressional wave, making the event more consistent with an explosion rather than an earthquake.”

Experts made comparisons “between typical earthquake vibrations and nuclear tests suggest this event more closely resembles a nuclear test.”

“Notably, no aftershocks were recorded, which is another clue pointing to an explosion rather than natural seismic activity,” according to DD Geopolitics, a website that aims to "push back Western narratives and censorship in media," as it describes itself. 

Several military accounts questioned, "Is it an earthquake or a nuclear test?" pointing out that what occurred in Iran "raises major concerns." 

‘Snapback Sanctions’

Iran fears that the European powers will activate the 'snapback' mechanism to reimpose UN sanctions on it if a diplomatic deal is not reached in the stalled talks to revive the nuclear agreement before October 2025, amid concerns that Trump might return to his “maximum pressure” strategy.

On 17 November 2024, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned of the activation of the snapback sanctions mechanism, which will remain in effect until October 2025 (the expiration of the UN Security Council Resolution 2231, issued after the 2015 nuclear deal and went into effect in January 2016.)

According to Al-Estiklal, “If we do not reach a new agreement by October 2025, we will face a difficult situation.” Araghchi said, “European countries may seek to activate the snapback mechanism, which would trigger the reimposition of six UN resolutions that were suspended under the nuclear deal, meaning the return of UN sanctions on Iran.”

In a televised interview, Araghchi explained that the government of Masoud Pezeshkian had attempted to resume negotiations in late September 2024, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, but the escalation of Israeli war in Gaza and Lebanon led to a suspension of talks.

"Now, European countries are keen to resume negotiations, and we will do so soon. The new U.S. administration must make its decision, and we will act accordingly," as reported by Al-Estiklal.

“But this reality will inevitably change in the coming year. First and foremost, the snapback issue forces the parties to the original deal to formulate a strategy regarding whether or not to activate it,” according to the Atlantic Council.

“Any decision will have far-reaching consequences for Iran’s conduct in regard to its nuclear program.”

“October 18, 2025 will be the last opportunity for world powers to initiate the snapback mechanism [...]Iran is already threatening that activating the exact mechanism will inevitably lead Tehran to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), making this decision crucial for the future of the Iranian nuclear program.”

“But even if the world powers give up the option to activate the snapback mechanism, this will have profound consequences for Iran and send a message that it has an open ticket to move forward with its program without any real limits.”

This has led some European officials to discuss the possibility of crafting a new nuclear agreement, or alternatively, “or Western countries could activate the snapback mechanism (which would lead to unprecedented moves on the part of Iran, and a clash between the powers—and probably Israel—and Iran).”

“The United States left the JCPOA, making it very hard to reach an agreement that will significantly roll back the Iranian nuclear program.”

The ‘Snapback’—a mechanism crafted under former President Barack Obama's administration—was designed to be triggered if Iran violated any of its commitments under the nuclear deal, formally known as the JCPOA, which was framed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231 and included a series of sanctions.

This mechanism is intended to compel the UN Security Council to reimpose international sanctions on Iran, and the Trump administration may seek to legally reinstate it.

In 2015, Iran and the P5+1 group—comprising the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the United States, Russia, China, the UK, and France), along with Germany—signed an agreement to regulate and monitor Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.

However, the U.S. withdrew unilaterally from the deal under Trump in 2018, and began re-imposing sanctions on Iran. 

In response, Tehran gradually scaled back its commitments under the agreement and took a series of steps, including the resumption of high-level uranium enrichment.