On the Footsteps of Egypt and Yemen; Will the ‘Popular Mobilization’ Carry out a Military Coup in Iraq?

Fears are growing about the preparations of the Popular Mobilization (PMF) in Iraq, for a military coup against the state, after the Popular Mobilization elements besieged the Green Zone in the capital, Baghdad, against the background of the arrest of one of its prominent leaders, and the talk of circles close to militias loyal to Iran to activate the scenario of Egypt, Yemen and Sudan.

On May 26, 2021, a special security force arrested the leader of the PFM in Anbar, Qassim Musleh, according to a judicial warrant on charges of “terrorism” related to a series of assassinations of prominent activists in the Karbala governorate, to which Musleh belongs, in an unprecedented incident in Iraq.

Coup Scenario

Against the background of the arrest, an audio clip attributed to a leader of the Popular Mobilization (whose identity has not been revealed) spread on social media, calling for the necessity of carrying out a military coup against Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi and taking control of the Green Zone, and making the international community face a fait accompli, as happened in Egypt and Sudan.

In this context, the writer close to the Popular Mobilization, Ahmed Abdel-Sada, said on Twitter: “I mentioned previously that the best solution to discipline the authority of conspiracy and employment in Iraq is to reproduce the experience of Ansar Allah [Houthis] in Yemen when they expelled [the current president] Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi and they killed [former president] Ali Abdullah Saleh.”

Abdel-Sada continued, through his tweet on May 26, 2021, that “the leaders of this authority did not learn from the experiences of former agents of America and the House of Saud [Saudi royal family] when they were left alone to face their inevitable dark fate.”

In a television interview that Abdul-Sada gave to the Iraqi Hezbollah-owned channel Aletejah TV, he warned Al-Kadhimi against repeating the arrest process because he would face either death or escape, because “the Popular Mobilization is ready to repeat the scenario of the Houthis in Iraq.”

Accounts linked to the militias had launched a campaign on Twitter under the Arabic hashtag of #ليلة_سقوط_الكاظمي meaning (The night of the fall of Al-Kadhimi).

The leader of Asa'ib Ahl Al-Haq, Qais Khazali, also demanded that Musleh be handed over to the Popular Mobilization Security Directorate.

Khazali said in a tweet on May 26, 2021, that “the arrest of an important leader in the Popular Mobilization in an operation outside the legal and military contexts, and in this particular way is nothing more than a shuffling of cards, and a malicious attempt to confuse the security situation and create chaos to push for the cancellation of elections, the formation of an emergency government, and the disruption of the constitution.”

Supporters of the Popular Mobilization continue to talk about a major military parade in Baghdad on June 14, 2021, on the occasion of the seventh anniversary of the fatwa of the Supreme Leader in Iraq Ali Al-Sistani for the so-called “Sufficient Jihad,” which was the reason for the establishment of the Popular Mobilization.

The parade, which supporters of the Popular Mobilization describe as “the largest military parade in Iraq,” will include 24 different activities, as the number of participants will be of 70 brigades with 15 thousand fighters.

They pointed out that the parade will include the participation of new weapons entering service for the first time, including the locally-made LT-79 armored vehicles, the Toofan anti-tank armored vehicles, and the Russian T-72 tanks, with Iranian a modern development including Kontakt-1 interactive armor and IR thermal cameras, among other equipment.

Cut off the Road

In an attempt that observers interpreted as a proactive step to block any coup attempt, on June 4, 2021, Sistani’s office re-published part of the statement establishing the Popular Mobilization, in which he called not to use it to “achieve political goals that will eventually lead this sacred title to what happened to other respected titles as a result of the mistakes committed by those who claimed them.”

Immediately after Al-Sistani's statement, the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada Al-Sadr, issued a lengthy statement in which he said: “The Mujahideen [fighters] have no right to set themselves up as rulers, executioners, judges, and police, even if the government is weak.”

For his part, Iraqi political analyst Basil Hussein said, via a tweet on May 29, 2021: “It seems that there is a Shiite coup against the loyalist militias, especially after they surrounded the Green Zone after the arrest of a reformer, and its indicators are Al-Sadr's last tweet, which included a great criticism of these militias.”

Meanwhile, Defense Minister Juma Inad denied the release of Musleh, warning during a video interview on May 29, 2021, against repeating the armed parade of the Mobilization and armed militias, which could lead to “fighting within the security system.”

The minister pointed out that “the weapons-carrying wheels of the Popular Mobilization Units will not frighten the state and the army,” stressing that the military capabilities of the state and the army “qualify it to fight countries.”

The writer and political analyst, Mohanad Al-Janabi, saw during a television interview on May 29, 2021 that the statements of the Minister of Defense regarding the repetition of the parade scene of the Popular Mobilization Units were “important,” and through which he demonstrated the “ability” of the military institution to “fulfill its responsibility towards people’s trust.”

Al-Janabi considered the repeated “violations” of these “rebel” groups with their actions amount to a “clear coup” against the regime and the sovereignty of the state and the people.

He stressed that “armies in all countries of the world are the mainstay of national security, and they cannot be targeted in the same way we see in Iraq, in which loyalist armed factions have been seeking since 2003, with the aim of weakening the prestige of the state.”

Al-Janabi described Minister Inad's statement as “important after the Iraqis have run out of patience with these armed groups and their attacks on the sovereignty of the state.”

He pointed out that “the government, military institutions and army leaders began to sense the seriousness of the matter, and the lack of courtesy to these rebel coup groups, which repeatedly diverged from military orders, but the military establishment has proven today, through the statements of the Minister of Defense, that it is up to the responsibility, and restore the people’s confidence in it.”

Different Experience

Regarding the power of the Popular Mobilization to reintroduce the Yemeni experience, the researcher in strategic affairs, Ahmed Al-Sharifi, said, during press statements on May 30, 2021, that “what happened from the attempt to control the Green Zone by factions affiliated with the Mobilization represents an attempted coup against the political decision and an initiation point for a complete revolution.

Al-Sharifi pointed out that the Yemeni scenario being talked about “cannot be achieved due to the total differences between the Iraqi and Yemeni situation, in addition to the fact that Iraq is still under international protection.”

For his part, the head of the Independent Incorporate for Adm. and Civil Society Studies (IIACSS) in Iraq, Munqith Dagher, said that the changes in the leadership of the security services “beared fruit during the recent event, which undermined the mission of the Popular Mobilization, in storming the Green Zone and acquiescing the government again.”

He added: “The Mobilization was surprised by Al-Kadhimi’s military ability, especially the reliance on the army’s special forces instead of the counter-terrorism agency,” considering that the defense minister’s statements “confirm that the efforts made to develop the army’s capabilities are beginning to bear fruit.”

Dagher expressed his belief that Al-Kadhimi “will be more able to prove his strength in the next phase in not releasing the detainee, which would mean that he has regained the initiative,” noting that these data mean that there are “other rounds in the next few periods.”

Similarly, the political analyst Mahdi Jassim said, during press statements on May 30, 2021 that “Al-Kadhimi’s government is internally supported by the patriots, as well as by regional countries, because the stability of Iraq is part of the stability of the region, and the experiences of the past phase prove that when the Arab depth moved away from Iraq, the repercussions were many.”

Jassim pointed out that “the international community, the United Nations and the Security Council have learned of the danger of the militias’ movements that are ideologically affiliated with Iran, and therefore the seriousness of this stage made the international community aware of the need to stand by the Al-Kadhimi government.”

Press reports on May 30, 2021 stated that “all military sectors, including military aviation, received orders to prepare for confrontation,” noting that “these preparations reached to the Popular Mobilization and led to its withdrawal.”